Talent Shortage

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Talent Shortage

• Melanie Holmes, Vice President of Corporate
  Affairs

now
next
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The global economy is failing to generate
sufficient jobs to reduce aggregate levels of
unemployment or underemployment.
International Labour Organization
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Agenda

• Demographic Evolution
• Declining birthrates
• Aging workforce
• Economic migration
• Work redistribution
• Talent Shortage.
• Whats Next?

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Declining Birthrates

• It takes 2.1 children per woman to replenish the
  population
• Worldwide 1.85 children per woman
• Japan 1.34 children per woman
• Italy 1.19 children per woman (2nd lowest in
  Western Europe)
• France 2 children per woman (highest in Europe
  after Ireland)
• United States 2 children per woman
• The biggest cause of declining birth rates is the
  growing number of people who stay single well
  into their 30s.

Source Worldpress.org
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Declining Birthrates Why?

• Women are more educated
• Greater employment opportunities
• More financial independence
• Increased urbanization
• Harder to sustain more than one or two children
• Increased availability of contraceptives
  (termination?).

Source Wall Street Journal
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Aging Workforce

• In 1950 there were seven working-age people for
  every elderly person in the U.S. in 2030 there
  will be three.
• By 2030 the last baby boomers will turn 66 an
  unprecedented 20 of the population will be older
  than 65.
• Many workers intend to continue to work beyond
  the traditional retirement age.

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Aging Workforce

• 80 of employers do not offer any special
  provisions to appeal to the concerns of mature
  workers.
• 60 of CEOs indicate their companies do not
  account for workforce aging in their long-term
  business plans.
• Most employers are not yet facing labor shortages
  or other economic pressures requiring them to
  recruit and retain mature workers.

Source The Business Case for Workers Age 50,
AARP
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Economic Migration

• The worlds population is being redistributed.
• Example At some point in 2006 more than half
  the worlds population will live in a town or
  city for the first time in history.
• People are not moving because of the demand for
  jobs so much as the hope of jobs. The reality is
  often unemployment and poverty.

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In the U.S.

• Hispanic and Asian populations are expected to
  triple by 2050 while non-Hispanic whites will
  grow more slowly to represent about ½ of the
  nations population.
• Between 2000 and 2050, Hispanics will increase
  from 36 million to 103 million to 24 of the
  nations population.
• The Asian population is projected to triple from
  11 million to 33 million to 8 of the nations
  population.
• Nearly ½ of new U.S. workers during the past
  decade have been foreign-born.

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In the U.S.

• Today immigrants make up 12 of the population
  and 15 of our workforce including 20 of all
  minimum wage jobs.
• Over the next 50 years, the U.S. population is
  projected to increase from 280 million to 400
  million. 80 of that increase will be new
  immigrants or descendants of immigrants.

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Work Redistribution

• China and India have replaced the 1980s Japan and
  the 1990s Mexico as the threat to U.S. jobs.
• Customer-intimate jobs cannot be offshored.
• Total offshore employment will grow from
  1,500,000 jobs in 2003 to 4,100,000 in 2008. But
  thats just 1 of the total number of service
  jobs in developed countries.

Source McKinsey Quarterly
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Work Redistribution

• The U.S. has lost basic production jobs to
  productivity increases
• Containerization replaced longshoremen
• Dial phones replaced switchboard operators
• Factory-floor robots replaced assembly-line
  workers
• Automatic teller machines replaced bank tellers
• 25 years ago GM needed 454,000 workers to build 5
  million cars. Today it takes 118,000.
• Onshoring? Honda has 10 of its workforce in
  Ohio.
• The overall trend is toward more and better jobs
  for American workers.

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Talent Shortage

• Economic development
• Global competition
• Technological progress

Source Confronting the Coming Talent Crunch
Whats Next, Manpower
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Global Talent Shortage

1. Sales Representatives
2. Engineers
3. Technicians (production / operations, engineering
   and maintenance)
4. Production Operators
5. Skilled Manual Trades (carpenters, welders and
   plumbers)

1. IT Staff (programmers and developers)
2. Administrative Assistants and Personal Assistants
3. Drivers
4. Accountants
5. Management and Executives

Source Talent Shortage Survey, Manpower
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U.S. Talent Shortage

1. Sales Representatives
2. Engineers
3. Nurses
4. Technicians (production / operations, engineering
   and maintenance)
5. Accountants

1. Administrative Assistants and Personal Assistants
2. Drivers
3. Call Center Operators
4. Machinists
5. Management and Executives

Source Talent Shortage Survey, Manpower
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All This Means

• If we cant maintain the size of our labor force
• we must boost productivity to maintain current
  growth levels.

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Increase Supply
Migration Education/Training Public-Private
initiatives School links Un(der)
employed Diversity/Inclusivity Reskill/Upskill Old
er Workers Offshore Cross-training Flexibility Wor
kforce optimization
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Governments Fostering the Right Skills

• Facilitate strategic migration
• Invest in education and vocational training
• Improve public-private initiatives

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Employers Addressing the Talent Crunch

• Enhance links with schools
• Tap into underemployed sources
• Promote inclusivity
• Invest in training and development
• Facilitate re-skilling/up-skilling
• Encourage prolonged working life
• Investigate job redesign
• Make flexible use of available talent
• Capitalize on remaining offshoring opportunities
• Hone attraction and retention approaches

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Individuals Staying Fit for the Race

• Maintain and renew skills
• Embrace labor union initiatives

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Those doing the best job of managing their talent
deliver far better results for shareholders.
McKinsey Company