Water safety data; what are the figures telling us?

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Water safety data what are the figures telling
us?

• Holly Henderson
• RoSPA Research Manager and Postgraduate of the
• Department of Public Health and Epidemiology,
  University of Birmingham

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Statistics Overview

• Accidental injury is a leading cause of death and
  disability and by 2020 injury will be the largest
  single reason for the loss of healthy human life
  years (WHO 2001 Towner 2001).
• Drowning is the second leading cause of
  unintentional injury mortality globally behind
  road traffic injuries.
• WHO (2002) estimates globally that there are
  almost half a million drownings annually
• Global Fatality Rate of 7.4 per 100, 000
• Historically the UK has published a drowning
  fatality rate of 1.0 per 100,000

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(No Transcript)
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What new research has occurred in 2004?

• SAPC and the University of Strathclyde Scottish
  Water Based Accidents The development of an
  accurate database
• University of Wales College of Medicine A
  retrospective study of childhood swimming pool
  drowning deaths in the UK and abroad
• SWIM Group Bath Seat Study
• University of Birmingham An investigation into
  the epidemiological surveillance of inland water
  incidents in the UK
• RYA Entrapment Study

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Scottish Water Based Fatalities The Development
of and accurate database

• Retrospective data collected from 1997 2003
• Four Data Sources
• Data includes suicides, homicides, coastal,
  offshore, inland and domestic fatalities
• Number of Notifications 1490 fatalities
• Total after data linkage 1116 fatalities
• New data collected 2.5 times more fatalities than
  previously known

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SAPC and University of Strathclyde Results (1)
Year RoSPA / RLSS Database SAPC Database
2003 67 165 (est.)
2002 66 173
2001 63 161
2000 64 156
1999 86 157
1998 93 182
1997 66 160

Mean 72 165
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SAPC and University of Strathclyde Results (2)
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SAPC and University of Strathclyde Results (3)
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SAPC and University of Strathclyde Results (4)
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Research Summary

• Over 100 additional drownings reported annually
• Males accounted for 80.5
• Age groups of concern 35 39 (8.6) and 55-59
  (8.3)
• Drownings peaked in August (10)
• 58.3 of fatalities at inland water locations
• 33.4 land based activities, 27.7 on the water
• Fishing accounted for 19.3
• 13.3 of fatalities in the Highlands Region
• 34.1 intent undetermined, 26.1 no information
  available
• New rate of 3.2 per 100,000

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A retrospective study of childhood swimming pool
drownings in the UK and Abroad

• Data sourced from 1993 2003
• Domestic, Private and Public Pools
• Total of 137 children (under 15) died
• 69.3 Males
• Average age 6.1 years
• Average of 12 per year

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University of Wales College of Medicine (1)
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University of Wales College of Medicine (2)
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University of Wales College of Medicine (3)
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University of Wales College of Medicine (4)
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Research Summary

• Drowning in the UK
• Starting to decline but age increasing
• Managing of Health and Safety of Swimming Pools
• Overhaul of Pool Life guarding
• Child Admissions Policy
• Drowning Abroad
• On the increase
• Exposure
• ANEC Research 2005

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Drowning of babies in bath seats

• Children under the age of two
• Case Study of drowning and near drowning episodes
  from 1989 2003
• All males (n 6)
• 5 under a year old
• Bath seats appear to give a false sense of
  security to parents
• Further research required to look at and address
  exposure to risk

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An Investigation into the Epidemiological
Surveillance of Inland Water Incidents in the UK

• 2545 notifications
• 2068 isolated incidents
• Related to 2743 people
• 89.4 (2453) rescued, 10.6 (290) died
• 79.0 involved were male (7.6 per 100, 000)
• 88.9 who died were male (0.9 per 100, 000)
• Males had a 7.6 fold increased risk of dying at
  an inland water location in the UK
• Males had a 3.9 fold increased risk in needing
  rescue at an inland water location in the UK

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Gender and Age - Survivability

• Adults accounted for 80.8 of involvement and
  88.6 of fatalities
• Teenagers had the highest population based rate
  of involvement (8.1 per 100, 000)
• Once involved in an inland water incident males
  were twice as likely to die

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Incidents Resulting in a Fatality Monthly Trends
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Incident Start Time and Month by the Number of
People Involved
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Incidents Resulting in a Fatality Day of Week
Trends
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Incident Day of Week and Month by the Number of
People Involved
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Incident Day of Week and Incident Start Time by
the Number of People Involved
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By Location
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By Activity
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Multivariate Analysis

• Predictive model used by NHS and Public Health
  Specialists
• Considers factors associated and predictors
• Model predicted 98.8 of outcomes of the research
• LOGODDS -1.827 0.590 AGR (2) 1.627 AGR
  (3) 1.474 WKD (6) 1.837 WKD (5) 0.093
  WKD (4) - 0.016 WKD (3) 0.049 WKD (2)
  0.599 GEN (1) 1.655 LT (2) 3.968 LT (1)

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Research Summary

• First time incident data analysed for the UK
• Use of descriptive epidemiology
• Capture Recapture Analysis (n 228)
• New use of relative risk, odds ratios and
  multivariate analysis
• Creates a new population based rate for inland
  waters in the UK
• Identification of Population most at risk
• Provides a baseline for prevention and
  intervention strategies through education and
  resource deployment

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Entrapment Study

• Study started in 2003
• Due to the public concern regarding the risk of
  getting trapped in inverted or partially inverted
  dinghy
• Well publicised near misses
• Process
• Logging entrapment incidents (Web Report)
• Discussions with major dinghy manufacturers
• Air gap tests
• Rescue Techniques
• Methods of Prevention

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Incident Records

• 44 incidents logged during 2003 and 2004
• 41 of these reported incidents were serious and
  a potential threat to life
• Biggest risk results from complete inversion of
  the boat with the sailor tangled or stuck
  underneath
• Probability of inversion occurring unaffected by
  conditions
• Major Factor - Speed of Inversion
• Depends on design
• Capsizing to windward whilst sailing downwind

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NWSF Information Group

• Aim
• To bring together in one place, information and
  research about incidents, casualties and
  fatalities in water
• Improve the quality of information and data
  available enabling it, for the first time, to
  develop strategies and policies based on
  statistics, analysis and research
• Objectives
• To encourage the gathering, monitoring and
  evaluation of drowning/incident data and relevant
  research
• To assess the need for intervention
• To assess the need for better information and
  data

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NWSF Information Group

• Outputs
• Improvements to statistics and levels of analysis
• Regular reporting to the Co-ordinating committee
• A data led approach to drowning prevention
• Contributors
• Nominated person from each of the NWSF Advisory
  Groups
• Academics with specialist interest in water safety

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Finally

• Each of the research projects has brought new
  valid and credible knowledge into the water
  safety community
• Collecting data routinely and the appropriate
  analysis is key to success
• Organisational understanding of data and
  statistical analysis
• Dataset Development
• Data Linkage Strategy
• Reporting Mechanisms
• Population based and risk based analysis
• Development of a Hierarchy of Evidence
• The NWSF Information Group will help co-ordinate
  and facilitate research like this in the future