Today

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Todays Topics Future of IR

• Will the world become safer or more dangerous in
  future?
• Will international politics change fundamentally
  in future?

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Is the World Becoming Safer or More Dangerous?
The Future of International Relations
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More DangerousHuntington

• Conflict in future not between states or
  political ideologies instead between cultures or
  civilizations.
• Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu,
  Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American, African
  (possibly!).
• Closest to domestic politics or realist
  approaches.

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More DangerousMearsheimer

1. We may soon miss stability of Cold War
   arrangements.
2. Stability of Cold War bipolar, rough balance of
   power, nuclear deterrence.
3. Europe will become multipolar ? instability,
   conflict.
4. Clearly neorealist.

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Safety StabilityKeohane Nye

1. States no longer only key actors.
2. Zones of democratic peace where hard power not
   so important still important in nondemocratic
   zones.
3. Yet importance of differences declining in
   information age.
4. Interdependence ? pressures for open information
   and democracy.
5. Soft power nongovernmental actors rising in
   power.

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Safety StabilityFukuyama

1. Triumph of liberalism (capitalism liberal
   democracy) over all ideological competitors ? no
   more conflict, end of history.
2. Past major competitors fascism communism.
3. Potential minor future competitors religious
   fundamentalism nationalism.

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Is the World Changing??
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Realists

1. IR changed somewhat since Cold War, but not
   fundamentally.
2. Changed Bipolar system ? unipolar system.
3. Broader superpower goals possible.
4. Same actors (states), interests (security),
   determinant (balance of power).
5. History as repeating stages in cycle (circular).

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Liberals

1. More substantial changes (neoliberals less
   revolutionary).
2. Globalization ? more cooperation, rise of
   nonstate actors.
3. Changes may be permanent.
4. History is progress (line, not a circle).

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Constructivists

1. Constant change in IR due to changing norms may
   create fundamental shifts.
2. Changes will not repeat, may or may not be
   progressive.
3. History a line, but not always happy.

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Domestic Politics Decisionmaking

• Dynamics remain unchanged unless domestic values/
  structures change within states.
• Democratic peace one general argument that
  expects big change (due to values/ structure
  change).
• History may be a line, but likely weak slope.

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Marxism

1. World changing capitalist expansion
   consolidation.
2. Eventual crisis of overproduction, revolution by
   impoverished, system collapse.
3. Possible reform to prevent revolution.
4. History a line of progressive stages, not circle.

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Feminism

1. World largely unchanging exploitation and
   devaluing of women/ feminine remains constant.
2. Only the forms of exploitation change.
3. History simply oscillates around a point.

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Summary

• Minor Change
• Realism
• Domestic Politics Decisionmaking
• Feminism

• Major Change
• Liberalism
• Constructivism
• Marxism