Mike Bell, co-chair (Met Office, UK)

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Slides presented at IGST XII - St Johns

Mike Bell, co-chair (Met Office, UK)
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Patrons GODAE Project Office

• ? Role of Patrons
• To advise on institutional priorities
• To assist in funding projects, events and GODAE
  Project Office
• ? Updating list of Patrons
• BMRC (Neville Smith), CNES (Eric Thouvenot), ESA
  (Mark Drinkwater), EUMETSAT (F Parisot), Mercator
  (Pierre Bahurel), Met Office (Mike Bell), NASA
  (Eric Lindstrom), NOAA (Stan Wilson), ONR (Scott
  Harper)
• Additional potential patrons are being encouraged
  to participate (e.g. IOOS (Mary Altalo), NCEP
  (Ming Ji)
• ? Financial situation of GODAE Project Office
• 143k transferred from BMRC (Jan 07)
• 78k is actual spend Sep 06 Jun 07
• 250k is estimated total spend Sep 06 Dec 08
• 64k committed (mainly EUMETSAT, NOAA) since Sep
  06
• 43k is present shortfall
• ? Sponsorship of Major Events
• Final Symposium Summer school will not be
  funded through the GODAE project office
• Funds will be raised directly

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Reports back on Actions

• ? Action 8 Poor Mans Ensembles
• Simple time series of SSTs for selected points
  and differences from ensemble mean using SST
  products generated by OSTIA, RTG, RSS, FNMOC and
  FOAM products
• Useful conclusions on strengths/weaknesses
  attainable
• ? Action 7 Collate examples of ocean input in
  NWP
• Yamamoto M. Hirose N. (2007), GRL, 34. Impact
  of satellite based SST and ocean model RIAMSST on
  developing cyclone in Japan Sea in 10 km
  resolution NWP simulation. Impact on MSLP,
  surface turbulent fluxes, precipitable water
  content. Validation using integrated cloud water
  amount and an infra-red cloud image.
• Mike McCulloch (Met Office) has rerun NWP
  tropical cyclone forecasts using OSTIA SST
  analyses. Discernible positive impact on track of
  one of four hurricanes studied
• ? Action 44 Coordination of demonstrations of
  impact of observations on seasonal forecasting
• David Anderson sees seasonal forecasting as a
  blunt tool for assessments. Hes not aware of a
  coordination effort. OSSE meeting may be able to
  raise this issue ?

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Report from GHRSST (1)

• ? Project is progressing very well
• GHRSST Annual Science Meeting in Melbourne well
  attended and useful
• ? Good operational use of satellite data
• Most useful SST satellite data now within the
  GHRSST-PP regional/global task sharing framework
• This now exchanges 10 Gbyte of data per day
• ? There are now 10 L4 analyses
• A new GHRSST-PP Multi-Product Ensemble (GMPE)
  Group has been set up to intercompare the L4
  analyses
• Key global L4 analyses combined as a poor mans
  ensemble at Met Office
• High resolution diagnostic data set (HRDDS) work
  extending to include model data as well as in
  situ useful to include
• ? The re-analysis project (for last 20 years) is
  moving ahead. Data sets are being developed and
  links to GCOS SST/SI WG are strong

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Report from GHRSST (2)

• ? Craig would like to broaden support for GHRSST
  Project Office (current supporters are European)
  to include NOAA or Japan if possible
• ? The future of the GHRSST project is being
  discussed
• Concensus in Science Team is that the PP should
  remain until transition to operations has
  occurred and beyond if necessary
• Dexter (and others) suggest it may not need a
  home (such as IOC or JCOMM or GEO) but there
  are other views
• Options will be explored further. Decision
  expected next year

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Future of IGST ?

• ? What was good about GODAE and IGST ?
• Had a clear and compelling objective to
  demonstrate open ocean forecasts both feasible
  and valuable in order to make case for transition
  of necessary observing systems to operational
  status
• Objectives well aligned with organisations able
  to provide funding (space agencies)
• IGST is a good size of group for information
  exchange. Best chance of year to find out what
  other groups are doing and discuss issues
• People involved willing to contribute (but often
  too busy)
• Incentives/reasons stronger for collaborating
  than competing
• Excitement of doing something new
• A good leader

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Future of IGST ?

• ? My current opinions
• Important to close GODAE to take stock of where
  we are
• Refreshing the objective getting a new
  compelling objective is key
• Tie in to JCOMM is important if it is not
  rather close operational oceanography and JCOMM
  will not be effective
• Quality of information exchange is key. Group
  could be a bit larger but not bigger than 50
• Some Project Office type resources are necessary
  to help people to contribute and complete tasks
  (e.g. web IP)
• Incentives/reasons for collaborating must be
  stronger than competing
• Excitement is important doing something that
  will have an impact is exciting
• A good leader doesnt have to be like Neville
• WCRP/CAS/JCOMM WG sounds better than IOC

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Final SymposiumBreak-out Discussion summary

• ? OST preferred to JCOMM as partner
• Difficulties in capturing target user attention
  organisational strengths of CNES observation
  community
• ? Themes and Balance
• Review and planning of future 7525
• Celebration and critical examination 7030
• Recognition of key achievements does both
• Individual systems and key issues 2080
• Observations and user applications 5050
• ? Organising ideas
• Multi-author papers similar to First Symposium
• Focus on key achievements
• ? Need an outline of themes, papers and joint
  authors
• Mike Pierre-Yves to draft outline of themes and
  papers

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Final Symposium (2)Themes/Papers

• ? Original concept
• The concept of GODAE and the Symposium
• ? Operational forecasting systems that have
  been implemented
• Model Assimilation system (National report
  writers)
• Data and product servers (Frederique Blanc, Steve
  Hankin, Keith Haines, Peter Cornillon, Peter
  Hacker, Srinivasan, Tim Pugh, Martin Price
• ? Internal Validation (title ?)
• Demonstrations of feasibility (Harley Hurlburt,
  Eric Dombrowsky, each system)
• Intercomparisons of forecasts (Fabrice Hernandez,
  Gary Brassington, Matt Martin,
• Assessments of impact of observing system (OSEs)
  (Peter Oke, T. Awaji, Matt Martin, Eric
  Dombrowsky, Greg Jacobs, Jim Cummings, P-Y le
  Traon)
• ? Key Scientific Technical Developments
  Issues
• In situ Satellite Observational network (2
  papers ?) (Dean Roemmich, Mike Johnson, Ed
  Harrison, Craig Donlon, Stan Wilson, Mark
  Drinkwater, Francois Parisot, Susan Wjffels, Eric
  Thouvenot)
• Observation processing (Jim Cummings, Bruce
  Ingleby, Giles Larnicol, Sylvie Pouliquen, Gary
  Brassington, Greg Jacobs, Pierre-Yves le Traon,
  Bob Keeley)
• Modelling (Eric Chassignet, Alan Wallcraft,
  Gurvan Madec, Anne Marie Treguier, Remy Baraille,
  Steve Griffies, Andreas Schiller, Bernard
  Barnier, Dan Wright)
• Assimilation (Jim Cummings, Anthony Weaver, Peter
  Oke, Keith Haines, Toni Lee, Ichiro Fukumori,
  Pierre Brasseur, Pierre de Mey, Jacques Verron,
  Matt Martin, T. Awaji, Keith Thomson, Laurent
  Bertino)
• Product serving (Frederique Blanc, Steve Hankin,
  Keith Haines, Peter Cornillon, Peter Hacker,
  Srinivasan, Tim Pugh, Martin Price
• ? Development of Applications (Services?)
• Safety and effectiveness of operations at Sea
  (includes SAR) (Fraser Davidson, Brian Stone, Art
  Allen, Oyvind Breivik, Bruce Hackett, Pierre
  Daniel, Ralph Rayner, Bob Woodham, Greg Jacobs)
• Downscaling for Coastal models (Pierre de Mey,
  Roger Proctor, John Siddorn, Fraser Davidson,
  George Halliwell, Alexander Barth, Peter Craig,
  John Kindle,Dominique Obaton, Hiroyuki Tsujino)

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Final Symposium (4)Themes/Papers/Key issues

• ? Original concept
• The concept of GODAE and the Symposium
• the aim, rationale and need minimum required for
  observations, modelling, assimilation and user
  engagement
• Explanation of purpose and organisation of papers
• ? Operational forecasting systems that have
  been implemented
• Model Assimilation systems
• Data and product servers
• Coordinated factual descriptions
• ? Internal Validation (title ?)
• Demonstrations of feasibility
• Intercomparisons of forecasts
• Assessments of impact of observing system (OSEs)
• ? Key Scientific Technical Developments
  Issues
• In situ Satellite Observational network (2
  papers ?)
• What is being monitored (variables scales),
  what has value mainly for validation
• key technological advances
• Observation processing
• Modelling
• Key steps forward goals for future

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Final SymposiumThemes/Papers/Key issues

• ? Development of Applications (Services?)
• Safety and effectiveness of operations at Sea
  (includes SAR)
• Downscaling for Coastal models
• Coupled atmospheric forecasts (NWP, seasonal,
  climate)
• Monitoring and protection of the environment
  (fisheries)
• What information is feasible and valuable key
  achievements key goals for future (why important
  and achievable)
• ? Project Assessments
• Pilot Projects Argo GHRSST
• What was the need/rationale/opportunity key
  achievements key goals for future (why important
  and achievable)
• Evaluation of effectiveness
• Original Metrics for Success other outcomes
  evolution of concept
• ? Options for the future
• Key research priorities
• Assessment of options for coordination post-GODAE
  

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Next IGST Location Timing

• ? Location Washington DC Scott, Ming, Ed to
  sort out
• ? Date - between May and Sep 08
• ? What to discuss ? How does this affect date ?
• Future of IGST no constraints
• Preparation of final Symposium
• Content of joint papers ? Aug / Sep a good time
  ?
• Results from intercomparisons later is better
  June/July
• Preparation of summer school OK
• Working groups no constraints
• National reports no constraints may not be
  needed ?