California

1
Californias Energy Economy A Regulatory
Perspective

• Mark Ferron
• California Public Utilities Commission
• May 16, 2012

2
An Evolving Mission

• Safety and Reliability cannot be compromised
• Encourage new innovation and attract new capital
• Demand Value for Money
• Promote a healthy environment and economy
• Look out for the underdog across all stakeholders
• Expose entrenched, anti-competitive players to
  market forces

Urgent but not Important
Important but not Urgent
3
My observations on some key issues
Investment Financing
Safety
Costs
Rate Design
Energy Efficiency
Renewables
Feed-in Tariffs DG
Reliability
4
San Bruno is a game changer
Safety
5
Our aging electrical grid needs billions of
dollars in investment
Investment Financing
Total market capitalization of U.S.
shareholder-owned electric companies
Cumulative Incremental Investment Needed for US
Electricity Infrastructure
bn
732bn
407bn
107bn
Source Edison Electric Institute
Source American Society of Civil Engineers, 2012
6
What we gonna do when the money runs out?
Investment Financing
DOE ARRA Funds Granted by Year (m)
Source US Department of Energy
7
Considering the current market environment
Investment Financing
Corporate Bond Yields and California Utilities
Rates of Return
Source Federal Reserve Report H15, CPUC.
8
Is Electricity Sticker Shock inevitable?
Costs
Actual and Projected Electricity Costs Total
Statewide Expenditure (bn)
50 4.1 CAGR
45 5.4 CAGR
Source CPUC.
9
The Rate Design Puzzle Who pays?
Rate Design
PGE Residential Rates by Tier (/kWh)
Source PGE, CPUC.
10
The cost of electricity is a serious disadvantage
for California Industry
Rate Design
Average Industrial Rates for the 50 largest US
Utilities
California
/kWh
Average 0.75
Source US Energy Information Administration Form
EIA-826 Data Monthly Electric Utility Sales and
Revenue Data, 2011. Note excludes Hawaii.
11
Californias History of Energy Efficiency Action
Energy Efficiency
IOU administration restored new incentive
mechanism AB 2021 requires POUs to set targets
SB 1037 makes EE top priority and requires POU
reporting
Utilities resume portfolio management PGC
takes effect
IOU decoupling restored CPUC sets aggressive
10-year targets
Energy Action Plan makes EE top priority
Deregulated market begins
Electricity Crisis
Decoupling for electric
Decoupling for gas
Source Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC),
as modified by Energy Division 4/25/2011
12
Challenges to Californias EE Programs
Energy Efficiency
2010-2012 Funding Sources (prior to 2011)
Declining IOU Portfolio Cost Effectiveness over
time
Public Goods Charge
Procurement Funds
3 yr total 3.1 Billion
(excluding Low Income EE Programs)
Source CPUC.
13
2013-2014 Transition Guidance Themes
Energy Efficiency

• Expand deep retrofit strategies for existing
  building stock
• Leverage ratepayer energy efficiency funds with
  private financing
• Coordinate and improve product development and
  adoption processes in the emerging technologies
  and the Codes and Standards programs
• Increase the delivery of efficiency programs by
  third parties and local governments

14
The Green Sector can be a Job Creator
Energy Efficiency
Cumulative new jobs projected from 2011 to 2020
Source California Clean Energy Future, Jan 2012
15
California should get to 33 RPS by 2020
Renewables
IOU RPS Procurement Forecast With risk weightings
based on viability calculator
16
We are rapidly adding new renewable generation
Renewables
17
A Feed-in Tariff is a powerful tool....
Feed-in Tariffs DG
PV installed in Germany has skyrocketed
California
18
.. But a Feed-in Tariff is not a magic wand
Feed-in Tariffs DG
The levels of European FiT subsidies are
unsustainable
Estimated Cost to German Ratepayers 8 billion
per year
Euros
MW
Feed-in Tariff range
Annual MW installed
Source DB Climate Change Advisors The German
Feed-in Tariff for PV May 2011
19
Solar will be the most important Renewable
Reliability
20
Grid Integration Solar has 2 big problems
Reliability
Demand
6AM
6PM
Source CPUC.
21
Reliability and long-term capacity avoiding the
cobweb
Reliability
Source California ISO 2011 Summer Assessment
22
Questions and Discussion

• Mark Ferron, Commissioner mark.ferron_at_cpuc.ca.gov
  
• Charlotte TerKeurst Chief of Staffcharlotte.terk
  eurst_at_cpuc.ca.gov
• Sara Kamins, Energy Advisorsara.kamins_at_cpuc.ca.go
  v
• Michael Colvin, Energy and Water Advisor
  michael.colvin_at_cpuc.ca.gov
• Charlyn Hook, Legal Advisor charlyn.hook_at_cpuc.ca.
  gov