GOES-R, fractals, and the butterfly effect

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• GOES-R, fractals, and the butterfly effect

(or how GOES-R can save civilization)
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Our place in the scheme of things?
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GOES-R our place in earths fractal

• A fractal is a rough or fragmented geometric
  shape that can be subdivided in parts, each of
  which is (at least approximately) a reduced-size
  copy of the whole. Fractals are generally
  self-similar and independent of scale.

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GOES-R our place in earths fractal

• of global effort
• 300 people/6B people 5x10-8
• 3000 people/6B people 5x10-7
• 300M/30T 10-5
• of earth science/services
• 300M/10B 3x10-2

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Global concerns
GOES-R
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Another dimensionthe picture isnt
staticbecause the human race is on a
rollour job is to serve the world of 2012 and
beyond
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in effect, to land on the carrier
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in a short period of time...

• Population growth
• increase in per capita consumption of resources
• advance in technology

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computation
105 years
103 years
103 years
50 years
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biotechnology
1400 years
50 years
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transportation
105 years
104 years
100 years
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a parenthesisOK --So science and technology
as a whole are moving forward...What about
advances in meteorology?
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Throughout history,mankind has operated on three
principles...

• assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is
  infinite
• climate is unchanging
• weather is unpredictable

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In the span of a centurymeteorolog
ists have shown...
1871-1916
1984-2003
2004-
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Assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is
finite...

• Not just locally
• or regionally
• but also globally.

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The climate changessometimes abruptly
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and weather is more predictable than wed
thought
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in a short period of time...

• Population growth
• increase in per capita consumption of resources
• advance in technology

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In this period of rapid change, how do policy
makers see the world?

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(20) unsolved global issues

• planet (global warming, biodiversity, fisheries
  depletion, deforestation)
• humanity (poverty, peacekeeping, education,
  disease)
• governance (taxation, trade, biotech, IP)

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(20) years to solve them

• treaties and conventions?
• world government?
• big conferences?
• G7, EU, other multilaterals?

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In this coming 20 years

• environmental issues will muscle their way onto
  center stage.
• Why? Because

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Human success has been achieved in a time short
compared with the time required for...

• climate variability
• recurrence of extremes
• emergence of unintended consequences
• non-sustainability
• society to internalize emerging understanding

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Therefore we can expect a future marked by...

• (adverse) climate variability
• natural extremes more violent than we are
  prepared to accommodate
• environmental/social catastrophes
• declining margins
• ineffective top-down strategies

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Sothis is where the butterfly comes in.GOES-R
can flap its wings and change outcomes
throughout the larger system

• Bring end users to the table
• Reshape the policy landscape

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Bring end users to the table?
(remember the VAS assessment?)

• Replace
• with

GOES-R dev
Decision support
End use
GOES-R dev
Decision support
End use
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Reshape the policy landscape?
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Reshape the policy landscape?
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Needed new policy tools, for assessing/addressing

• Costs, benefits of met science, services
• Impact of different market mechanisms
• International data sharing
• Segmentation of weather providers
• Uncertainty re long-term requirements
• Need for long-term continuity
• Prioritization
• Other

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AMS helping the community meet this need
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• Policy Forum Series
• Summer Policy Colloquium
• Congressional Science Fellows
• Policy research

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GlObal concErnS

• of global effort
• 10T/30T 30
• Ecosystem services
• 30T

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Lastly, I would address one general admonition
to all that they consider what are the true ends
of knowledge, and that they seek it not either
for pleasure of mind, or for contention, or for
superiority to others, or for profit, or fame, or
power, or any of these inferior things but for
the benefit and use of life and that they
perfect and govern it in charity. For it was from
the lust of power that the angels fell, from the
lust of knowledge that men fell but of charity
there can be no excess, neither did angel or man
ever come in danger by it.
-- Francis Bacon