Higher Education in Developing Countries: What Role, What Impact?

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Higher Education in Developing CountriesWhat
Role, What Impact?

• Devesh Kapur
• University of Pennsylvania

Second Annual GDI Forum April 10,
2008 University of Pennsylvania
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Outline of Presentation

• Overview of Tertiary Education
• Why? Rising Demand
• How? Supply Responses
• What? The Content of Higher Education
• Who gets educated?
• Role of the State
• Regulation and Standards
• Role of International Community
• Concluding Remarks

Devesh Kapur, CASI
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He was sent, as usual, to a public school, where
a little learning was painfully beaten into him,
and from thence to the university, where it was
carefully taken out of him.
T.L. PEACOCK
Devesh Kapur, CASI
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Higher Education Landscape

• Global tertiary student population
• 1991 ?68 million.
• 2004 ? 132 million
• 2025 Projection ? 150 million
• ? In 2002, the global market in higher education
  represented over 3 percent of the total services
  market
• ? 3.5 million people are employed to teach or
  otherwise service students
• ?. Global market in educational services is
  currently estimated at more than 2 trillion

Devesh Kapur, CASI
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Why? Demand from rapidly increasing youth
population in developing countries
Population aged 15-24 (in millions)
Source Population Division of the Department of
Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat, World Population Prospects The 2006
Revision and World Urbanization Prospects The
2005 Revision, http//esa.un.org/unpp,
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Gross Enrollment Ratio, Tertiary Education Gross Enrollment Ratio, Tertiary Education Gross Enrollment Ratio, Tertiary Education Gross Enrollment Ratio, Tertiary Education
1980 1997 2004
High Income countries 36.2 51.6 66.7
Least Developed Countries 1.8 3.2 8.7
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.7 3.9 5
Arab States 9.6 14.9 22.6
Latin America and the Caribbean 13.7 19.4 28.6
East Asia and Oceana 3.8 10.8 19.6
South Asia 4.3 7.2 9.7
Devesh Kapur, CASI
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Why? Rising Skill Premium in developing countries
1980s 1990s
Mexico Increased Increased until mid 1990s Stable/declined after mid 1990s Increased between 2000-1990
Colombia Slightly declined Increased
Argentina Declined Increased
Brazil Stable/Slight increase Increased
Chile Increased Declined early 1990s Overall increased 1990-2000 (national data)
India Relatively stable Increased
Hong Kong Increased Increased
Source Goldberg and Pavcnik, 2006
Devesh Kapur, CASI
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Why? Returns to Higher Education

• Lower social returns relative to primary and
  secondary. Public investments in tertiary
  education are often regressive, reproducing
  existing social and economic inequalities.
• 1986 World Bank study estimated that social rates
  of return for higher education in developing
  countries were on average 13 percent lower than
  returns from basic education.
• A more recent review of 98 countries from
  1960-1997 found that the average rate of return
  from primary schooling was 18.9 percent, compared
  to just 10.8 percent for tertiary education.

Devesh Kapur, CASI
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Why Higher Education?

• Universities facilitate national development by
  promoting democratic ideals, as well as
  intellectual and industrial competitiveness.
• Improve economic and political governance.
• Promotes Entrepreneurship.
• Contribute to greater social mobility and
  egalitarianism.
• Socialization effects of higher education in
  producing new nationalist elites.

Devesh Kapur, CASI
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Why Higher Education?

• In the absence of domestic skills, even global
  public goods have very limited payoffs, e.g.
  green revolution technologies in agriculture.
• Green Revolution more successful in Asia than
  Africa. Why?
• greater domestic technological capabilities in
  Asia
• developed through local agriculture research
  centers that could adapt the new green revolution
  technologies to local conditions.
• Today, poor developing countries face worse odds.
• 1. Technologies being developed in rich
  countries less appropriate to developing country
  agriculture because of shift in research
  priorities.
• 2. Technologies developed in richer countries
  less accessible because of IPR of privately owned
  technologies most biotech companies have little
  interest in developing technologies for
  applications in LDC.
• 3. Even those technologies that are applicable
  and available require more substantial local
  development and adaptation. LDCs will need to
  develop greater domestic agricultural research
  human capital.

Devesh Kapur, CASI
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How? Supply Responses

• Changing Role of State
• Increasing Role of Private Universities
• Corporate Skill Providers
• Internationalization of Higher Education
• But undercut by Brain Drain?

Devesh Kapur, CASI
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The Role of the State

• Regulation
• From Provider to Financier?
• Promoting Access and Equity
• Invest in areas undersupplied by private sector

Devesh Kapur, CASI
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(No Transcript)
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How? The growing role of the private sector - I
Private share of enrolment Countries
Large (over 50 percent) Bangladesh, Bermuda, Botswana, Brazil, Cape Verde, Chile, Colombia, Cyprus, El Salvador, Estonia, Holy See, India, Indonesia, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, Japan, Latvia, Luxembourg, Namibia, Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, Paluau, Palestinian Autonomous Territories, Paraguay, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Slovenia, Tonga, Turks and Caicos Islands, United Kingdom
Source UIS Education database, May 2005
Devesh Kapur, CASI
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How? The growing role of the private sector - I
Private share of enrolment Countries
Medium (between 25 and 50 percent) Angola, Armenia, Burundi, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, Lebanon, Malaysia, Mexico, Mongolia, Nepal, Nicaragua, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, United States of America, Venezuela
Source UIS Education database, May 2005
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How? The growing role of the private sector - I
Private share of enrolment Countries
Small (between 10 and 25 percent) Argentina, Aruba, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bolivia, Bulgaria, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Georgia, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, Iraq, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Mauritius, Norway, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Republic of Moldova, Senegal, Spain, Switzerland, Thailand, Uruguay
Source UIS Education database, May 2005
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How? The growing role of the private sector - I
Private share of enrolment Countries
Negligible or non-existent (less than 10 percent) Australia, Austria, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Czech republic, Denmark, Germany, Ghana, Hong Kong SAR of China, Ireland, Kyrgystan, Madagascar, Morocco, New Zealand, Pakistan, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovakia, Sweden, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Vietnam, Yemen
Source UIS Education database, May 2005
Devesh Kapur, CASI
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International Student Enrollment in Top Six Host
Countries (in thousands)
1999 2004 Change 1999 to 2004
World total 1,680 2,453 46.0
US 491 573 16.6
UK 233 300 29.0
Germany 178 241 46.1
France 131 238 81.4
Australia 117 167 42.1
Japan 57 118 108.5

Devesh Kapur, CASI
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Total Median Cost of Bachelor Degree2004 (USD)

• Engineering Business
• China 32,800 31,700
• Hong Kong 38,200 38,200
• Singapore 77,900 54,900
• Australia 90,000 60,000
• UK 91,700 77,900
• US Public 119,900 119,800
• US Private 167,800 167,800

Devesh Kapur, CASI
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Cross Border Supply Universities Travel Abroad

• Range of Arrangements Overseas campuses,
  franchise, joint degrees, twinning etc..
• Regulatory issues

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The Virtual Future?

• Early Failures
• Recent successes in the US
• Costs
• Open Courseware Movement

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How? Can Online Substitute for Brick-and-Mortar
Universities?
Number of US students in the US who enroll only
online
2000 194,580
2001 315,219
2002 483,113
2003 701,295
2004 936,727
2005 1,214,000
2006 1,518,750
Source Foster and Carnevale, 2007
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Devesh Kapur, CASI
Source DOI, 2007
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Who gets educated? Equity Access

• Selection Criteria
• Financial Aid schemes
• Reaching out to historically marginalized groups
  (egs. Brazil, Malaysia, India, South Africa)

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What? The Content of Higher Education

• Economic impact Liberal arts education can
  increase innovation and economic fluidity,
  leading to more creative and knowledge-based
  economies with a more adaptable workforce.
• Policymaking impact Development and policy
  making requires people with generalized as well
  as specialized knowledge, and critical thinking
  and communication skills. A liberal arts
  education may develop these competencies in a
  countrys leaders and citizens.
• Political participation By spreading knowledge
  and increasing debate, liberal education may
  extend participatory citizenship to more members
  of society, thus improving the quality of
  democracy in a society.
• Societal cohesion Liberal education may promote
  tolerance and understanding of others, leading to
  a more peaceful and cohesive society.
• Possibility of reducing brain drain Students may
  be less likely to go overseas for their
  education, and more likely to return to a society
  in which liberal education fosters a vibrant
  intellectual culture and educated population.
• Greater international understanding Liberal
  education may increase cross-cultural
  understanding and lead to more peaceful
  interaction between nations.

Devesh Kapur, CASI
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What? The Content of Higher Education

• The very humanness of their disciplines is at
  the root of the problem. They wrestle with
  questions too entangled in the worlds strife -
  and too inherently complex - to accumulate
  reliable knowledge and avoid intellectual
  debasement in the manner of the natural sciences.
  Causes more than curiosity recruit their
  acolytes, rivalries too quickly slip into
  enmities, disagreements superheat over value
  conflicts, and before disputes can get into
  substance theyre apt to spin off into fierce
  quarrels over rival modes of verification.
• The value of liberal arts education in producing
  students with skills adaptable to the knowledge
  economy sounds so plausible that it has entered
  the working vocabulary of businessmen,
  politicians, planners, journalists, and ordinary
  people. It has almost become part of common
  sense. But viewed from the point of view of
  economics, the futuristic business literature
  is, to put it bluntly, all but worthless it
  amounts to little more than a collection of
  slogans, with next to nothing by way of
  theoretical or empirical basis. - Edwards and
  Ogilvie

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Regulation and Standards

• Who ensures quality?
• Growth of Regional and International
  Accreditation bodies
• - Universitas21
• - Washington Accord
• - Council for Higher Education Accreditation
  (CHEA)
• - International Network for Quality Assurance
  Agencies in Higher Education
• - Global Alliance for Transnational Education
  (GATE)
• - International Quality Review Process (IQRP)

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Brain Drain
Expatriation Rates (Doctors and Nurses from
Low-Income Countries, 2000)
Nurses Doctors
lt10 Bangladesh, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Dem. Rep. Congo, Côte dIvoire, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea, India, Kenya, Mali, Mauritania, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sudan, Timor-Leste, Togo, Uganda, Yemen, Zambia Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Dem. Rep. Congo, Guinea, India, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger, Pakistan, Rwanda, Sudan, Yemen
10-25 Cambodia, Comoros, Eritrea, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Laos, Madagascar, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, Rwanda, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Vietnam Afghanistan, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Côte dIvoire, Ethiopia, Gambia, Laos, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Nigeria, Solomon Islands, Vietnam
25-50 Sao Tome and Principe, Zimbabwe Benin, Burundi, Eritrea, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Malawi, Papua New Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Somalia, Timor-Leste, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe
gt50 Haiti, Liberia, Sierra Leone Haiti, Liberia, Mozambique, Sierra Leone
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Brain Drain
Estimated critical shortages of doctors, nurses
and midwives
Number of countries Number of countries In countries with shortages In countries with shortages Foreign doctors nurses in OECD Foreign doctors nurses in OECD
WHO region Total With Shortages Shortage (1000s) Increase required Number (1000s) of shortage
Africa 46 36 818 139 98 12
Americas 35 5 379 40 199 526
SE Asia 11 6 1164 50 101 9
Mediterranean 21 7 306 98 71 23
W. Pacific 27 3 326 119 212 652
World 192 57 2358 70
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Role of International Community

• International Regulatory Mechanisms
• GATS
• International Aid

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Some Questions

• Are economic effects of higher education on
  developing countries different from those in
  industrialized countries, especially its impact
  on institutional development?
• Given limited resources, how should countries
  distribute resources within HE between
  individuals and institutions, across disciplines,
  between research and teaching?
• With the state unable to meet growing demand
  pressures what should be the proper role of the
  state? How should its financial and regulatory
  roles change, to ensure not just quality but also
  equity and access so that higher education
  becomes a ladder rather than a barrier to social
  mobility?

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Some Questions

• How should countries rethink the provision of
  higher education in an open economy? When
  should countries subsidize students acquiring
  education abroad or instead encourage foreign
  providers into the country or simply link
  domestic institutions with foreign quality
  assurance mechanisms?
• Do new technologies offer developing countries a
  new paradigm to expand the provision of high
  quality but low-cost higher education?
• What is happening within universities and to
  students who spend a considerable part of their
  prime years in these institutions?
• How meaningful is the large growth in higher
  education enrollment? Is it at the expense of
  quality and do we really know how to measure
  quality?

Devesh Kapur, CASI