The Profiles Database

1
UK VETERINARY SURVEILLANCE STRATEGY

• The Profiles Database Decision Support Tool for
  Prioritisation of Animal Health and Welfare
  Issues for Government Intervention
• SZER Project Team
• Jane Gibbens, Andrew Frost, Simon Lawton,
• Francesca Day

2
HISTORY PROGRESS

• 2003 Veterinary Surveillance Strategy published
• 10 year implementation plan
• enhance veterinary surveillance
• ensure early detection of important changes in
  animal health (BSE, FMD inquiries)
• Key goal ensure best allocation of finite
  resources for surveillance
• Confirmed use of an objective, peer-reviewed
  evidence base profiles
• 2004 Animal Health and Welfare Strategy
  published
• Use sound science and evidence for decision
  making
• Structured and transparent framework for
  prioritisation
• Profiles to be part of this framework
• 2005 present Wide consultation and exploration
  of options
• Explored and defined evidence to be used in
  Profiles
• Explored potential structure built a prototype
  in Excel
• Validation of prototype (Defra Deputy Directors)

3
Profiles Database and Prioritisation Project

• Profiles Database
• A collection of profiles on specific animal
  diseases or welfare issues.
• Each profile is
• drafted by experts
• peer reviewed
• available to all on the web (once published)
• and will be used to automatically provide summary
  reports and QAs as well once cleared for
  publication.

4
Profiles Database and Prioritisation Project

• Prioritisation Project
• A tool to use Profiles Database information to
  rank different diseases or issues for the 4
  reasons for Government intervention listed in the
  AHW Strategy
• Protecting public health,
• Promoting animal welfare,
• Ensuring opportunities for international trade,
  and
• Protecting the interests of the wider society and
  the economy

5
Prioritisation DST

• Risk Epidemiology score - Equivalent to EU
  Epidemiology and Control Measures chapters
• Likelihood of an unaffected holding becoming
  affected
• Overall risk in epidemiological societal terms
• (Potential) rate of spread
• Extent to which the keeper or government can
  control
• Able to be populated and run rapidly
• Visual summary ranking of issues
• By risk impact (policy areas)
• Level playing field

6
Profiles Database and Prioritisation Project

• Benefit can prioritise finite resources in the
  context of government policy and the AHW strategy

7
Example Prioritisation Score

• Overview of why each disease is important
• Context of AHWS reasons for intervention
• Avoids assumptions
• No difference in relative importance between
  RFIs as each RFI (and RE) score out of 100

8
How the DST works

• Up to 10 criteria defined for each RFI
• Each has a score
• Each has a relative weight
• Overall score sum of contribution from each
  criterion
• Example Wider Society criterion with weight 10
• (Detailed guidance defines each category)
• The greater the weighting, the more likely that a
  change in that criterion will change the
  diseases relative ranking

9
Public Health Impact

• AHWS To protect the health of the public
• Summary score describes
• How bad human disease is/might be 44
• Human attributable risk or exposure extent GB
  based 38
• Uncertainty 13
• Costs of human disease 5

10
Animal Welfare

• AHWS Protect promote the welfare of animals
• Summary score describes
• Number of individual animals affected 30
• Welfare impact Five Freedoms Duration 53
• Welfare impact of control measures 11
• Extent of excess suffering (disease/controls) 6

11
Wider Society

• AHWS Protect interests of wider economy,
  environment society
• Summary score describes
• Risk of unexpected government costs 29
• Wider community social economic impact 29
• Environmental impact 29
• Producer economic impact 14

12
International Trade

• AHWS Ensure sustainable opportunities for
  (commercial) trade
• Summary score describes
• Government effort 43
• Legal risk 30
• (Potential) extent of impact on sector 26

13
Risk Epidemiology

• Overall risk in epidemiological societal terms
• Likelihood of an unaffected holding becoming
  affected
• (Potential) rate of spread
• Extent to which the keeper or government can
  control

14
Demonstration
15
Demo screenshots
16
Future Developments

• What if? scenarios
• Introduce effective vaccine?
• Stop all intervention?
• Improve surveillance?
• Cross-cutting issues
• Resource allocation for population databases
• Animal identification
• Scanning surveillance
• Use similar approach for non-infectious issues
• Intoxications
• Lameness in dairy cows