??(recovery)

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(No Transcript)
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11.1 ????

• ??
• ????????????????,????????????????
• ????
• ???????????,????????????????,??????????????????
• ???
• ??(recovery)
• ?????????????
• ??(prosperity)

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11.1 ????

• ????(?)
• ???
• ??(prosperity)
• ??????????
• ???
• ??(slowdown)???(recession)
• ???????,???????
• ??(depression)
• ???????????,???????

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11.1 ????

• ????(?)
• ??????

5
11.2 ???????

• ????(classical cycles)
• ??????????????????????????
• ???????????????????
• ??????????????
• ????(growth cycles)
• ??????????????????????????
• ????????????????,????

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11.2 ???????

• ????(?)
• ?????(high rate phaseupswing)??????(low rate
  phasedownswing),?????????????????????????????(gr
  owth downturns)??????(growth upturns),????????
• ?????????(CEPD)????????????????,??????????????????
  ?????????????????????

7
?????,?????

• ????????????????????????????,?????????????????????
  ?,???????,???????????????,????????????,???????????
  ??
• ?????????????,????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????????????(???????????
  ???)??????(?????????)????????????????(???? /
  ??)?????????????????????????????,???????????????

8
?????,?????

• ???????????????????????????,??????????????????????
  ????????????????????????,????????????????,????????
  ???????(check point)??????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????,??????????
  ??(??5?????4????3?????2????1?),???????????????????
  ??????,??????????????????????

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?????,?????

• ??????????,?????????????????????????,????????????
  ???????,?????????,?????????????????????,?????????
  ??????????????????,???????????,?????????,????????
  ??????,?????????

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????????

• ?1980???????????????????,???????????????????,?????
  ?????????????????????????,????????????????????????
  ????,????????????,?????????1989???????????????????
  ??,?????,????????,??3????

11
????????

• ????????????????,??????????????????,??????????????
  ????????????????????,????????????????????????????,
  ???????????,????????????????????,????????????????,
  ???????????????????????,?????1970????????????

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????????

• ?????1982???????1990?7?,?????2???????,???????????2
  000????????1980???????????????????,???????????????
  ??????????????????????????????,???????????????????
  ???1970????????????????????,??3????,?????????????
  ???,?????????

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????????

• ???????????????,?????????????????????,??????,?????
  ????????????????????????????(W. J.
  Niskanen)??,???????????,???????,??????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????,?????????,?????????????1980??????,????
  ????13.5,??1989????,????????5?

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????????

• 1981??,???????????????(P. Volcker)???,????????????
  19(???1),???????,??1982?????????????????????,???
  ?????17??28,???????????????????????????????????
  ,??????????,??????????????????????????,???????,???
  ??????????????????????????,??80?????,??????,??????
  ?????,???????????,???????,???????90????????????
• ??????,2004?6?7 ??

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11.3 ??????

• ????????????
• ???????????????????
• ??-??????????????
• ????(multiplier effect)
• ??????????????
• ????(acceleration principle)
• ??????????????????

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11.3 ??????

• ????????????(?)
• ????????

17
11.3 ??????

• ????????????(?)
• ??????????,????????

18
11.3 ??????

• ???????????
• ????????????????,??????????????,??????????
• ?????????????,???????????????????????
• ??????(political business cycle, PBC)
• ???????????????????????????

19
11.3 ??????

• ???????????(?)
• ???????,????????

20
11.3 ??????

• ???????????(?)
• ???????,????????

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11.3 ??????

• ????????
• ????????,????????????????????????????,????????????
  ????
• ????????(real business cycle model, RBC)
• ??????????????????,????????

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11.3 ??????

• ????????(?)
• ??????????(labor productivity curve, LPC)

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11.4 ?????????

• 1776?,?????????(The Wealth of
  Nations)????????????,????????
• ????????1930????????,???????????????????(The
  General Theory of Employment, Interest, and
  Money, 1936)??,??????????????????,????????????(Key
  nesian Revolution)

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11.4 ?????????

• ????(Pigou effect)
• ?????,?????????,??????????????,???????????(??????
  ,????????),?????????????,???????,???????????????,?
  ???????,???????????????,????????????????

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11.4 ?????????

• ????(fine-tuning)
• ???????????,????????????????,????????????????????
  ,??????,??????
• 1960????,????????(M. Friendman)???????????????????
  ?,????????????????,??????????????,??????????,?????
  ??(rule)?????(discretionary)??

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11.4 ?????????

• ????????(policy ineffectiveness proposition, PIP)
• ???????
• ??????,
• ??????
• ??????,
• ????????

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11.4 ?????????

• 1980???(R. Reagan) ??????????(supply-side
  economics)?????,??(1)????????,??????????????(2)??
  ???????,???????,????(3)????????,?????????????????
  
• ????????????,?????????????

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11.4 ?????????

• 1980????,???(R. Lucas)????(T. Sargent)??????????,?
  ??????????????????,??????(market clearing)????
• ?????(E. Prescott)????(C. Plosser)????????????????
  ????????,?????????????

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11.4 ?????????

• ??(N. G. Mankiw)??????????????????,?????????,?????
  ??(New Keynesian School)????
• ???????(R. Romer)???,???????????????,?????????????
  ???????????????????

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????????????

• ?1980???????????????????,???????????????????,?????
  ?????????????????????????,????????????????????????
  ????,????????????,?????????1989???????????????????
  ??,?????,????????,??3????

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????????????

• ????????????????,??????????????????,??????????????
  ????????????????????,????????????????????????????,
  ???????????,????????????????????,????????????????,
  ???????????????????????,?????1970????????????

32
????????????

• ?????1982???????1990?7?,?????2???????,???????????2
  000????????1980???????????????????,???????????????
  ??????????????????????????????,???????????????????
  ???1970????????????????????,??3????,?????????????
  ???,?????????

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????????????

• ???????????????,?????????????????????,??????,?????
  ????????????????????????????(W. J.
  Niskanen)??,???????????,???????,??????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????,?????????,?????????????1980??????,????
  ????13.5,??1989????,????????5?

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????????????

• 1981??,???????????????(P. Volcker)???,????????????
  19(???1),???????,??1982?????????????????????,???
  ?????17??28,???????????????????????????????????
  ,??????????,??????????????????????????,???????,???
  ??????????????????????????,??80?????,??????,??????
  ?????,???????????,???????,???????90????????????
• ??????,2004?6?7 ??

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11.5 ????????????

• ????
• ?????????,??????????,?????????
• ????(Says law)????????
• ???????????????????????,?????????
• ???????????????,??????????????

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11.5 ????????????

• ?????
• ?????????????????(downward rigidity)
• ??????????(???????),??????,???????????
• ????
• ?????????????,????????????????
• ?????????????
• ??????????,??????????

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11.5 ????????????

• ????(?)
• ??????(adaptive expection)??????,?????????????????
  ,????,??????
• ??????(new classical school)
• ?????????????????????,????????(rational
  expectation school)
• ???????????? ,???????????,??????????????????

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11.5 ????????????

• ???????
• ????????????,?????????,??????????????,??????????,?
  ??????
• ????????
• ??????????????????????????????

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11.5 ????????????

• ??????????????1970?????????????,????????,?????????
  ?????
• ??????????????????,??????????????????
• ???????????????????,??????????????????????

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?????
?
Questions/Discussions