Use of EMEP results

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Use of EMEP results in ICP MM assessments for
the support of the GP-revision
J-P Hettelingh, M Posch, J Slootweg ICP MM -
Coordination Centre for Effects
(CCE), www.icpmapping.org hosted at RIVM
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Collaboration between EMEP and WGE-CCE includes

• - emissions/depositions/concentrations from
  EMEP (CIAM MSC-W) for assessments of acid and
  nutrient exceedances in support of the revison of
  the gothenburg protocol and NEC (TSAP)
• emissions/depositions from EMEP (MSC-E) for
  assessments of Heavy metal exceedances in support
  of effect based information to the revision of
  the HM protocol
• Historic emission/deposition assessments for the
  dynamic modelling of changes to soil chemistry
  and vegetation diversity
• Scenario specific information on various air
  pollution compounds for WGE expost assessments
• Information on exceedances, land cover and soil
  chemistry for use by EMEP
• Report and paper contributions

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Structure of ICP MM Impact assessment
EMEP
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Illustrative analysis ofEffects of acidity and
nutrient-N using most recent CIAM scenarios
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Using modelled critical loads for acidity and
nutrient-N
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Exceedances (AAE) of Acidity Critical Loads and
area at risk in Europe, (EU27) and Natura2000
COB, 3, (5), 6
LOW, 2, (4), 5
2000, 10,(19), 21
MID, 2, (4), 4
HIGH, 2 (3), 3
MFR, 1 (3), 3
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Exceedances (AAE) of Nutrient Critical Loads and
area at risk in Europe, (EU27) and Natura2000
COB, 34 (55), 55
LOW, 28, (46), 46
2000, 52, (74), 71
MFR, 22, (38), 37
MID, 26, (43), 44
HIGH, 23, (39), 39
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DYNAMIC MODELLING of Eutrophication Violation of
Nutrient 2050 Target Loads (compared with
CLs) and area not recovering before 2050 in
Europe and (EU27)
Target Loads CLs
COB 35 (57)
34 (55)
MID 27 (46)
26 (43)
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Using empirical critical loads
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Exceedances (AAE) of Empirical Critical Loads
and area at risk in Europe, (EU27) and
Natura2000
COB, 10,(18), 24
LOW, 6, (11), 14
2000, 23, (40), 48
MFR, 3 (6), 8
MID, 5, (9), 12
HIGH, 3, (7), 9
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Area at N-risk of a more than 5 change in
biodiversity, i.e. of species richness
semi-natural grass lands s-alpine scrub
habitats, and similarity coniferous boreal
woodlands, together covering 53 of European
natural area
9 of the area
2 of the area
1,2 of the area
1 of the area
0,7 of the area
0,6 of the area
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Assessment of the robustness of scenario impacts
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Likeliness of Exceedances (AAE) in Europe based
on the ensemble of empirical and modelled CL(N)
Explore the inclusion of alternative deposition
assessments ?
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In addition, some areas are also at risk
ofambient NH3 that exceed critical levels
NAT-2000
PRI-2000
MFR-2020
PRI-2030
Critical levels from Cape et al. 2008
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Some concluding observations

• Collaboration between EMEP and WGE-CCE
• Works very well, including
• science (FP7 publications reports) for ground
  truthing of
• applications for the support of European air
  quality policies
• Will review requirements to further implement the
  EB strategy calling for the broadening of the
  modelled system (change of climate and
  biodiversity uncertainty)