Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science (MoSeS)

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Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science
(MoSeS)

• Mark Birkin, Martin Clarke, Phil Rees,
• Andy Turner, Belinda Wu
• (School of Geography)
• Haibo Chen
• (Institute for Transport Studies)
• Justin Keen
• (Institute for Health Sciences)
• Pete Dew, Jie Xu, John Hodrien
• (School of Computing)

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e-Science and Grid Computing

• Computer Scientists are building the next
  generation of computational infrastructure
• The Grid intends to make access to computing
  power, scientific data repositories and
  experimental facilities as easy as the Web makes
  access to information. (Tony Blair, 2002)
• Will provide the capability for virtual data
  sharing, easy and secure access to massive
  computational resources within collaborative
  working environments (virtual organisations)

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e-Science and Grid Computing

• Example applications
• AstroGrid
• MyGrid
• UK Research Councils and DTI have invested at
  least 340 million since 2001
• How should social scientists be exploiting this
  technology?

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• Use e-Science as a basis for renewed interest in
  urban simulation modelling
• SimCity for Real
• www.future-cities.org

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Some Objectives

• Develop and package a suite of modelling tools
  that allow for specific research and policy
  questions to be addressed
• Create a model of the UK population as
  individuals and households
• Develop case study applications with specific
  reference to
• Health
• Business
• Transport

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Modelling and Simulation Tools

• Utilise UK National Grid Service
• SRB
• GROWL
• Dynamic
• Microsimulation
• Multi Agent and Environment Based
• Scenario Based Forecasting

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Health Scenario

• Track health needs of one population cohort
  (elderly?)
• Combination of primary and secondary health
  services plus social care
• Lifetime histories poorly understood (modelling
  data issues) (joined up government)
• Substitution effects
• Social networks dimension Sports Clubs,
  Community Centres

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Example Scenario

• The Northern Way Business Plan aims to reduce the
  output gap between the Region and the National
  average
• too few in employment,
• insufficient skill levels,
• and an economy lacking in dynamism.
• One important component of reducing the gap is
  through improving the quality and efficiency of
  the Regions transportation infrastructure,
  roads, railways, ports and airports.
  Specifically, the Plan refers to (C6,C7,C8)
  objectives of
• Increasing to 17.2 million business and 6.4
  million inbound leisure travellers each year
  through Northern Airports
• Increase ship arrivals and throughput tonnes of
  Northern ports to 25 and 35 of the national
  total
• Reduce congestion in the inter-urban strategic
  road network to below the national average by 2010

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Example Scenario

• Conventional approach

e.g. Birkin and M. Clarke (1987) Simmonds
and G. Clarke (2005)
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Example Scenario

• Alternative approach

Examples?? PUMA?
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Challenges

• Grid enabling data and tools
• Visualisation
• Google Earth
• Computer Games
• Collaboration
• Retaining a problem focus
• Design and Development

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Transport Applications

• Explore environmental consequences of demographic
  change
• Forecast traffic change
• SATURN
• Estimate vehicle emissions factors
• AIMSUN, PARAMICS, DRACULA