UNFCCC COP13/MOP3 Bali

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UNFCCC COP13/MOP3 Bali

• Report for Vietnam NGO climate change forum

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What is COP/MOP

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
  Change (UNFCCC) holds annual Conference of
  Parties (COP)
• includes all UN member states
• encourages members to combat climate change
• Kyoto Protocol signatories hold annual meetings
  (MOP) alongside COPs
• obliges members to combat climate change
• Bali 2007 was 13th COP and 3rd MOP

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Key points of the Kyoto Protocol

• Only annex 1 (developed) parties have
  commitments to reduce GHG emissions
• Commitment period from 2008-12
• Non-annex 1 countries participate through the
  CDM
• Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) produced by
  CDM projects can be sold and exchanged
• Additionality - would the project have been
  implemented without CDM?

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Bali conference in context4th IPCC report

• IPCC produces 5-yearly reports on the state of
  the global climate and anthropogenic influence
• 2007 report most unequivocal yet - global GHG
  emissions must be reduced 25-40 below 1990
  levels before 2020.
• Atmospheric GHG concentrations must be stablised
  at 450-550 ppm
• This will not be sufficient to avoid indundation
  of small island states and low lying cities (HCMC)

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Bali conference in contextUNFCCC agenda

• A post-2012 successor to the Kyoto Protocol
  which
• Includes all parties to UNFCCC
• Includes firm targets based on findings of IPCC4
• Consists of four elements mitigation,
  adaptation, technology transfer, financing
• Bali to reach unanimous agreement on a
  negotiation framework and timetable (roadmap)
• Sign post-2012 agreement in 2009 (Copenhagen)

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Bali conference in contextPolitical environment

• G8 meeting - US admission of human-induced
  climate change
• Launches top emitters club
• Gives WB remit to devise FCPF
• Australian election - climate change a key issue
• Nobel Peace prize (award ceremony during Bali
  conference)

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Key players

• USA
• Blocking agreement - insisted on commitments for
  developing nations and no specific targets
• Technology transfer entails risk for domestic
  industry
• John Kerry led parallel delegation
• Al Gore advised leaving USA out of agreement,
  with an opt-in for new administration

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Key players

• Canada, Japan and Australia - key US allies
• EU
• Insisted on inclusion of IPCC targets - roadmap
  must have a destination
• More robust CDM mechanism
• China
• Unofficial rep of non-annex 1 parties
• Highlighted contrast with US position
• Favours looser regulation of CDM
• Brazil - REDD mechanism to be deforestation only

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Key DecisionsBali Roadmap

• Unanimous agreement after an extra day
• IPCC targets reduced to a footnote but roadmap
  recognises that deep cuts will be required
• G77 pressure forced USA into a humiliating last
  minute u-turn but they still managed to remove
  all meaningful content
• However, nothing is ruled out and there is every
  chance that Copenhagen 2009 will include
  commitments from all major emitters

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Key decisionsREDD

• Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest
  Degradation (REDD) - the major success story of
  the conference
• Brazil dropped objections
• Unexpectedly broad parameters - may include
  payments for conservation and restoration as well
  as reduced degradation
• Previous objections to forestry mechanism (poor
  scientific basis and difficulty of monitoring)
  expected to be overcome by 2012

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Key decisionsREDD

• CERs will be long-term (unlike ARCDM)
• Outstanding concerns (highlighted on Forestry
  day)
• National accounting, not project-based - how to
  distribute benefits?
• Local/indigenous use rights - not adequately
  addressed in the decision
• Baselines - simple for avoided deforestation,
  complex for other scenarios

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Key decisionsREDD

• The next two years of negotiations will address
  these concerns
• Non-annex 1 Countries with an interest in REDD
  have until 2013 to prepare
• COP13 encouraged annex 1 parties to contribute to
  REDD preparedness
• WBs Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)
  was created to channel such contributions in two
  stages Readiness mechanism and Carbon Finance
  mechanism

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Key decisionsNew CDM guidelines - Biogas

• MOP3 reinstated the mechanism that enables biogas
  projects to generate CERs under CDM
• The mechanism was previously abolished because it
  was considered a proxy avoided deforestation
  measure - substituting firewood
• Reinstated mechanism assumes biogas plants
  substitute for kerosene
• Generates less CERs per plant than previous
  mechanism
• REDD may allow revival of original mechanism

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Key decisionsNew CDM guidance - Energy
efficiency

• Allows for projects which result in improvements
  in energy efficiency of existing technologies -
  such as wood-fired stoves
• Biogas and energy efficiency projects were
  lobbied for by G77 nations (especially Nepal),
  with the support of EU. Brazil dropped their
  initial opposition

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Key decisionsNew CDM guidance - ARCDM

• Limit on small-scale ARCDM projects doubled to
  16,000 tCO2. This was pushed by African
  countries
• But still many obstacles to ARCDM projects
• High risk for buyers
• Temporary CERs - low value
• Outlawed by EU Emission Trading System
• Stringent monitoring requirements
• High technical capacity required

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Key decisionsAdaptation Fund

• Adaptation fund created from 2 levy on sale of
  CERs from all CDM projects - made operational at
  Bali conference
• 36 million currently amassed - future revenues
  will be gt 100 million annually
• This is not sufficient to meet non annex 1
  countries demands for adaptation projects
• Additional funds available from Global
  Environment Facility (GEF), World Bank (eg FCPF)
  and regional bodies e.g. ADB