Stephen P. Mattingly

1
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
September 3, 2014

• Stephen P. Mattingly
• Associate Professor
• Department of Civil Engineering
• University of Texas at Arlington
• Supporting Researchers
• Katie Larsen, UT - Austin
• Antonio Massidda, Univ. of Vanderbilt
• Sunil Madanu, UTA

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Overview

• What is High Speed Rail?
• Current Status of High Speed Rail in Texas
• Texas vs. Other Established Systems
• A Unique Opportunity
• Issues to Resolve/Address
• What Does High Speed Rail Really Mean for Texas?

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
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Background
Definition of High Speed Rail (HSR)

• European Union
• Minimum Operating Speeds
• 120 mph Existing Rail Lines
• 160 mph New HSRs

U.S. DOT Rail service that is time-competitive
with air and/or auto for travel markets in the
approximate range of 100 to 500 miles.
HSR Lines Scenarios
A. Massidda S. Mattingly
S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
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HSR in Japan
Early efforts 1964 Japan HSR line Toyko to
Shin-Osaka
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HSR in Europe
Early efforts 1977 Italy HSR line Rome
Florence High Speed Train (HST) Pendolino
operated at speeds up to 155 mph
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HSR in Europe
1981 France HSR line Paris Lyon HST Train à
Grand Vitesse (TGV) operated at speeds up to 160
mph
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S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US
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What Role Does High Speed Rail Serve?

• Intended for regional (intercity trips)
• Not intra-region (cannot maintain maximum speed
  for long periods before needing to brake)
• Typically, 100-500 mile trips
• Example Houston Atlanta, 790 miles,
• 2 hours by air
• Over 4 hours at maximum HSR speed with no stops
• May be subsidized or funded by the government
• Passengers pay by the person-trip (fare) rather
  than vehicle
• Version of public transport even if operated by
  private firm or concession
• Similar to air
• Dissimilar to auto
• Outcome HSR competes with air in limited niche
• Limited SOV vehicles
• Minimum fare Washington DC to Philadelphia, 111

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HSR in USA The Northeast Corridor
2000 USA The Northeast Corridor
Acela Express HST Maximum Operating Speed 150
mph Average Operating Speed 72 125 mph
HSR length 450 miles
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S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
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HSR in USA The Northeast Corridor
The impact of the Acela Express on
airlines Air/HSR Market Share Analysis
Route Distance (miles) Air/HSR market share for Acela Express Acela Express Travel time (hmin)
NYC Washington DC 230 65 245
NYC Boston 225 52 330
Boston Philadelphia 320 18 456
A. Massidda S. Mattingly
S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
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HSR in USA The Future
The Proposed HSR Lines in the USA

• South Central, San Antonio DFW Tulsa/Little
  Rock
• Gulf Coast Houston New Orleans Southeast
  (Atlanta eastern seaboard)
• California Corridors,
• Florida Tampa Orlando Miami,
• Northeast Region,
• Chicago Hub Detroit Chicago, Kansas City St.
  Louis Chicago
• Southeast,
• Pacific Northwest

A. Massidda S. Mattingly
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Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
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HSR in Texas Current Status

• Many Competing Voices
• Texas High Speed Rail Corporation (Texas T-bone)
• Texas Oklahoma Passenger Rail Study (TOPRS)
• Texas Central Railway (Houston to Dallas line)
• Regional Issues
• NCTCOG
• Commission for High-Speed Rail in the Dallas/Fort
  Worth Region
• Tarrant vs. Dallas County

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HSR in Texas Current Status

• Texas Central Railway (Houston to Dallas line)
• FRA and TxDOT Lead agencies for EIS
• Downtown Dallas station
• No public money
• Subsidiary of Japan Central Railway
• Regional Issues
• HSR in Tarrant County
• Station in Arlington near entertainment district
• Coordination and consideration of complete
  transportation system
• How to fund?

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HSR in Texas Current Status
Existing HSR Systems Experience HSR Stations
Near Downtown

• Access Transportation
• Bus
• Rail (urban and commuter)
• Access Activities(dense urban cores)
• Businesses (high value business in core)
• Entertainment (most in core)
• Urban housing (high value property)

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HSR in Texas Current Status
Texas/American Experience

• Access Transportation
• Bus
• Rail (urban and commuter)
• Automobile
• Access Activities(dispersed)
• Businesses (multiple centers)
• Entertainment
• Housing (suburban)

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HSR in Texas Current Status

• Note
• Travel Times do not include station dwell times
• Any origin to destination service does not have
  intermediate stops

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HSR in Europe Case Study The TGV
Today, France has approximately 1,000 miles of
HSR lines
A. Massidda S. Mattingly
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Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
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HSR in Europe Case Study The TGV
The impact of the TGV on airlines in
France Air/HSR Market Share Analysis
Route TGV Market Share Journey Time (hours)
Paris-Lyon 91 155
Paris-Nantes 89 200
Paris-Bordeaux 62 300
Lyon-Lille 60 300
Paris-Marseille 60 310
Route type TGV Market Share
Journey Time 2 hours 90
Journey Time 2 hours 60
Total on domestic routes 81
A. Massidda S. Mattingly
S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
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HSR in Texas Potential Ridership

• Based on international and US(Acela Express)
  experience
• HSIPR can get 80 - 90 of the Air/HSIPR market
  share when travel time is up to 2 hours
• HSIPR can get 50 - 80 of the Air/HSIPR market
  share when travel time is up to 3.5 hours
• As the service is introduced, the HSIPR can
  expect to capture between 60 and 85 percent of
  existing airline ridership after five years of
  operation
• The ridership becomes sensitive to the location
  of the station

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HSR in Texas Potential Ridership
Ridership (Passengers/Year)
From / To DFW Area Houston Area San Antonio Austin College Station Waco
DFW Area - 1,230,000 841,000 798,000 32,000 41,000
Houston Area 1,226,000 - 433,000 429,000 31,000 -
San Antonio 845,000 433,000 - - - -
Austin 816,000 439,000 - - - -
College Station 32,000 30,000 - - - -
Waco 41,000 - - - - -
Note Only non-stop airline destinations are included Consider 90 percent of 2012 airline ridership (Oct. 11 Oct. 12) Assume no latent demand Note Only non-stop airline destinations are included Consider 90 percent of 2012 airline ridership (Oct. 11 Oct. 12) Assume no latent demand Note Only non-stop airline destinations are included Consider 90 percent of 2012 airline ridership (Oct. 11 Oct. 12) Assume no latent demand Note Only non-stop airline destinations are included Consider 90 percent of 2012 airline ridership (Oct. 11 Oct. 12) Assume no latent demand Note Only non-stop airline destinations are included Consider 90 percent of 2012 airline ridership (Oct. 11 Oct. 12) Assume no latent demand Note Only non-stop airline destinations are included Consider 90 percent of 2012 airline ridership (Oct. 11 Oct. 12) Assume no latent demand Note Only non-stop airline destinations are included Consider 90 percent of 2012 airline ridership (Oct. 11 Oct. 12) Assume no latent demand
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A Unique Opportunity

• Access Economic Opportunity
• Regional air profitability is limited
• Rail replaces regional air service and creates
  economic and development opportunities outside
  the major urban areas
• Integrated transportation system

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A Unique Opportunity
European Experience HSR Stations Near Airports

• Airlines are offering combined air and rail
  ticketing
• Rail passengers have expedited check in to
  airport terminals
• HSR Airport to Airport Connections

Origin Destination Rail Service/Line Distance Travel Time
Paris Airport Lyon, France Airport SNCF/Brussels TGV 293 mi 1 hr 59 min
Paris Airport Brussels Airport SNCF/Brussels TGV 171 mi 1 hr 32 min
Frankfurt Airport Cologne Airport Deutsche Bahn/ICE 100 mi 43 min
Brussels Airport Amsterdam Airport Thalys International 120 mi 1 hr 32 min
Brussels Airport Dusseldorf Airport Deutsche Bahn/ICE 117 mi 2 hr 33 min
Source Raileurope.com
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A Unique Opportunity
AIRail Station Frankfurt Airport
Terminal 1 Airport
AIRail HSR Station
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A Unique Opportunity

• Ticketing Benefits
• Some airlines like Lufthansa and Air France offer
  online booking for combined flight and HSR train
• Access to destinations beyond the arrival
  airport.
• Other Benefits
• Replace air trips
• Lower environmental impact
• Similar safety
• New stations economic development
• Access to smaller urban areas (Waco, College
  Station, Temple/Belton)
• Less frequent service
• Each stop adds dwell time and lost time

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HSR in Texas The Future
The Texas HSR and Higher Speed Rail Network and
Airlines A Cooperative Approach
On short-haul routes, the HSR may be a substitute
for feeder flights operated by regional
airlines
Cooperation agreements between HSR operator and
airlines may produce benefits for
Passengers
Major Airlines
HSR Operator

• Relatively convenient service,
• Cheaper fares for business journeys

• Dismiss less profitable routes,
• Maintain an extensive regional network

• Increase ridership and revenues

A. Massidda S. Mattingly
S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
25
HSR in Texas The Future
New Strategies to Establish a Cooperative
Approach Between HSRs and Airlines
HSR as part of the overall wider transportation
network that includes airports and airlines

• An integrated HSR Airlines system would
• Improve performance
• Provide passengers with better service
• Increase HSR ridership and revenues
• Reduce expenses or losses for airlines

• Operating strategies
• Code sharing on select HSR routes
• Potential integration of airlines check-in and
  baggage handling at HSR stations
• Airlines operating HSTs to diversify investments

A. Massidda S. Mattingly
S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
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Challenges

• Optimal placement of rail stations a challenge
• Placement of near other transportation modes
  provide access
• Population catchment
• Activity catchment
• Urban mileage expensive
• Activities are dispersed
• Possible land use issues
• Integration with existing transportation system
  (i.e. access)
• No funding for Dallas Arlington Fort Worth
  extension

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Challenges

• Profitability
• HSR is the most profitable type of rail. The
  TGV high speed rail of France has a 1.3 billion
  dollar annual profit. (LesEchols.fr, Renaud
  Honore, 2011)
• The AMTRAK Acela Express
• only operationally profitable line
• 45 profit margin (Brookings Institute, 2013)
• Does not include debt so may be lower (Brookings
  Institute, 2013)
• Most HSR is at least capital subsidized
• Same as other modes
• Not perceived the same

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What Does HSR Really Mean for Texas?

• Texas is different than the East Coast and Europe
• Population
• Activities
• HSR not a solution for urban congestion
• May compete with new managed lane on I-30
• Managed lane SOV toll vs. fare
• May void a concessionaire agreement
• Continuing rural interstate highway congestion

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What Does HSR Really Mean for Texas?

• Economic development opportunities near stations
• New transportation system challenges near
  stations to provide an adequate and integrated
  system
• Not the public transit answer to intercity
  travel due to high cost
• A political solution to extending HSR beyond
  Texas Central Rail initial investment
• Public money spent on expensive to construct
  track
• Winners and missed opportunities

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas