The Skagit Alternative Futures Project

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The Skagit Alternative Futures Project

• How might the Skagit Valley develop over 50 years
  - through 2060?
• Given population growth, climate change, changing
  agricultural markets
• Project will model several different potential
  futures
• Appointed Stakeholder committee will combine best
  elements to develop a preferred future
• And specific recommendations for implementation

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Alternative Futures Project Background

• Skagit County received EPA grant in 2008
• Skagit County is the project coordinator
• Departments include Planning, Public Works, GIS,
  Natural Resources Policy Coordinator
• Outside partners include UW, WSU, Skagit River
  Systems Coop, and others
• Participants include cities, tribes,
  conservation, agricultural, and forestry
  organizations, state agencies, and others

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Project Timeline 2009

• Steering Committee and Technical Committees are
  meeting
• Task is to develop, model and evaluate four
  Alternative Futures
• - Plan Trend, Agriculture, Conservation,
  Development
• Accounting for population growth, climate change,
  and other factors
• For modeling purposes only

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Project Timeline 2010

• Stakeholder Committee meets to develop and
  recommend a Preferred Future
• Draws on results of modeling, and consensus
  decision process
• Preferred future is a hybrid that seeks to
  maintain
• - a commercially viable and sustainable
  agricultural industry
• - a healthy, resilient ecosystem
• - highly livable, economically viable urban and
  rural communities
• And implementation strategy for how to get there

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Project Timeline 2011-2012

• Skagit County and other jurisdictions
• Implementation through Countywide Planning
  Policies, Comprehensive Plans, development
  regulations, new economic incentives, etc.

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Opportunities

• Promoting important cross-jurisdictional and
  inter-disciplinary discussions
• Allowing us to think longer-term and get out of
  narrow GMA box
• Securing resources for important County needs

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Challenges

• Requires large amounts of County staff time
• Moving forward into uncharted territory
• Will address some deep-seated conflicts
• What can/will be different about this process?

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Steering Committee Members

• Rone Brewer, Washington Waterfowl Association
• Jan Ellingson, Crown Real Estate LLC
• Margaret Fleek, City of Burlington
• Jana Hanson, City of Mount Vernon
• Carolyn Kelly, Skagit Conservation District
• Paul Kriegel, Forestry Representative
• Margaret Studer, Futurewise

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Steering Committee Members

• Patsy Martin, Port of Skagit County
• Kevin Morse, The Nature Conservancy
• Rebecca Ponzio, Puget Sound Partnership
• Allen Rozema, Skagitonians to Preserve Farmland
• Mike Shelby, Western Washington Agriculture
  Association
• Shirley Solomon, Skagit Watershed Council
• Dr. Gary Tollefson, Skagit Valley College
• Larry Wasserman, Swinomish Indian Tribal
  Community

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SKAGIT COUNTY SKAGIT WATERSHED
County 1.1 Million acres Watershed 2.0
Million acres
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County Specific Planned TrendExamples

• Growth Management limitations
• Available residential lots
• Build out
• County options for growth
• Bayview Ridge
• Working with other jurisdictions
• City plans for growth