Changing Nature of Rural Landscapes and Communities

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Changing Nature of Rural Landscapes and
Communities
John Williams NSW Commissioner for Natural
Resources
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The challenge for Australian agriculture

• The era of cheap energy for Agriculture is
  over.....
• Fuels, Fertilizer, Pesticides, increasingly
  expensive
• The impact of Emission Trading Scheme is about to
  begin.....
• Increase costs of most inputs to agriculture
• The era of cheap food and fibre may be over....
• global food demand increasing-Food security.

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BIODIVERSITY
LAND
AIR
WATER
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Damage to Land, Water Biodiversity

• soil nutrient depletion
• soil acidification
• soil structural decline
• soil biological decline
• dryland and irrigation salinization
• wind and water erosion
• contamination with residues of agricultural
  chemicals

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Damage to Land, Water Biodiversity

• loss of habitat and biodiversity
• river processes and environmental flows
• nutrient, salts and pollutants to wetlands,
  rivers and water bodies
• contamination of groundwater with nutrients, salt
  and pollutants
• riparian, remnant vegetation damage and rural
  tree decline
• decline in native pastures and environmental
  value of rangelands

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The challenge for Australian society

• To manage water, land, biodiversity which
• underpin our life support systems by
• Providing our ecosystems services and our
  ecological infrastructure
• Under Climate Change and Shift

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Change in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years

• Based on ice core analysis, and since 1958 on
  direct measurements
• Inset Monthly average concentration at Mauna
  Loa, Hawaii.

Source Australian Government, Bureau of
Meteorology
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Climate observations compared to projections
Source Rahmstorf et al (2007). Science 316709.
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Australia is warming
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Climate change is occurring and is due to human
activities
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Global Carbon Budget (1850-2005)
2000- 2005
1990- 1999
1980- 1989
fossil fuel emissions
6.3
7.2
5.4
Source
deforestation
1.6
1.5
1.4
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
atmospheric CO2
3.2
4.2
3.3
Sink
land
2.5
2.3
1.7
ocean
2.2
2.3
1.8
Time (y)
IPCC 2001 Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS, in review
IPCC WGI 2007, unpublished comparison
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Summary of Projected Climate Changes

• Temperature to increase 3oC by 2050 and 5oC by
  2070 over land areas
• Lower increases in temperature in maritime
  environments
• Precipitation increases in high latitudes
  (temperate) but a drying in mid-latitudes
  (sub-tropics) over Asia
• Equatorial tropical zone uncertain but little
  mean change expected
• No increase in cyclone frequency but intensity
  could increase by 10-20
• Accelerated melting of glaciers 65 of Chinas
  glaciers will not exist by 2050 with current and
  projected warming trends
• Sea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c.
  50cm) but estimates dont include significant ice
  melt over land

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15-model average changes in temperature by 2030,
relative to 1990
Suppiah et al (in prep)
Low CO2 emission scenario
High CO2 emission scenario
Temperature change (C)
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Annual Flows In Lachlan River at Forbes
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4 July 2015
TYPE IN PRESENTATION NAME
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Rainfall trend (1910 to 2005)
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• Source Richard Beecham, NSW Department of
  Natural Resources

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• Source Barry Hanstrum, Bureau of Meteorology

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