A GLOBAL OVERVIEW

1

THREAT

• A GLOBAL OVERVIEW

UNCLASSIFIED Cover Sheet
2
Global Threat References

• Global Threat, Statement for the Record Senate
  Armed Services Committee, 11 February 2003
• HTTP//www.fas.org, Federation of American
  Scientists
• Terrorism, the Future, and U.S. Foreign Policy,
  Issue Brief for Congress, 8 January 2003

UNCLASSIFIED 2
3
Near Term Priorities

• Global Terrorism
• - Most immediate concern to U.S. interests at
  home or abroad
• - Many terrorist groups have the capabilities
  of doing us harm

UNCLASSIFIED 3
4
Current List of Designated Foreign Terrorist
Organizations (As of October 5, 2001)

• 1. Abu Nidal Organization (ANO) 2. Abu Sayyaf
  Group
• 3. Armed Islamic Group (GIA)
• 4. Aum Shinrikyo
• 5. Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA)
• 6. Gama'a al-Islamiyya (Islamic Group)
• 7. HAMAS (Islamic Resistance Movement)
• 8. Harakat ul-Mujahidin (HUM)
• 9. Hizballah (Party of God)
• 10. Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)
• 11. al-Jihad (Egyptian Islamic Jihad)
• 12. Kahane Chai (Kach)
• 13. Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)
• 14. Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)

• 15. Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK)
• 16. National Liberation Army (ELN)
• 17. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
• 18. Palestine Liberation Front (PLF)
• 19. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine
  (PFLP)
• 20. PFLP-General Command (PFLP-GC)
• 21. al-Qa'ida
• 22. Real IRA
• 23. Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)
  
• 24. Revolutionary Nuclei (formerly ELA)
• 25. Revolutionary Organization 17 November
• 26. Revolutionary People's Liberation Army/Front
  (DHKP/C)
• 27. Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso, SL)
• 28. United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC)

UNCLASSIFIED 3
5
Al Qaida

• Retains presence on six continents
• Draws support from legitimate and illegitimate
  organizations
• Network is adaptive, flexible, and more agile
  than us
• Look for future attacks in Europe
• Are actively seeking WMD and RDD

UNCLASSIFIED 3
6
Iraq

• Attack Kurds in North
• Attack Israel and regional states
• Energize Arab countries
• Employ scorched earth policy, destroying
  infrastructures and using WMD

UNCLASSIFIED 3
7
North Korea

• Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons reflect long term
  strategic goal
• -income derived from weapons exports
• -two stage Taepo-Dong 2 missile could target
  U.S. with nuclear payload
• Significant conventional military (infantry,
  armor, artillery, WMD) forebear a violent,
  destructive war with little or no warning

UNCLASSIFIED 3
8
Global Realities

• These realities are enduring and foster hatred
  against west
• - reaction to U.S. dominance
• - globalization
• - uneven economic and demographic growth
• - general technology proliferation
• - WMD proliferation

9
Global Realities (cont.)

• -declining global defense spending
• - international crime
• -increasing number of people in need

UNCLASSIFIED 3
10
Reaction to U.S. Dominance

• Many are concerned about expansion,
  consolidation, and dominance of American values,
  ideals, culture, and institutions
• Fear of losing cultural identity
• Fear of U.S. unilateralism

UNCLASSIFIED 3
11
Globalization

• Globalization is the increasing flow of money,
  goods, services, people, information, technology,
  and ideas
• It can be positive
• It can leave large numbers of people worse off
  and open for influence by subversive organizations

UNCLASSIFIED 3
12
Uneven Economic and Demographic Growth

• The world will add another billion people in
  10-15 years, 95 in developing nations
• 20-30 million of poorest migrate to cities
• Cities will be unable to keep up with increase
• Resulting instability will increase power on
  dangerous non-state entities

UNCLASSIFIED 3
13
General Technology Proliferation

• New vulnerabilities, interdependencies, and
  capabilities are being created in advanced and
  less developed states
• The integration of various advancements and
  application of emerging technology makes it
  difficult to predict the fututre

UNCLASSIFIED 3
14
Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missile
Proliferation

• States seek these for regional security and to
  deter U.S. superiority
• Globalization provides technology and materials
  to acquire
• New alliances have formed

UNCLASSIFIED 3
15
Declining Global Defense Spending

• Global defense spending has dropped 50 in the
  past decade.
• Adversaries and allies will not keep pace with
  the U.S.
• Foes driven to asymmetric options
• Technology transfers and embargoes will be more
  difficult to control

UNCLASSIFIED 3
16
International Crime

• Criminal groups around the world are broadening
  their activities in narcotics trafficking, alien
  smuggling, and illegal arms trading
• These groups can fund terrorism and use their
  networks to assist terrorists

UNCLASSIFIED 3
17
Regional Issues Israel and Palestine

• Conflict is furthering anti-American sentiment
• Increasing pressure on moderate Middle East
  countries
• No end likely in near future

UNCLASSIFIED 3
18
Regional Issues Pakistan and India

• Islamabad and Dehli has taken steps to defuse
• Tensions are still high,
• Both sides retain large forces and continue WMD
  and missile programs

UNCLASSIFIED 3
19
Regional Issues Muslim World

• Pakistan
• Afghanistan
• Indonesia
• Egypt
• Jordan
• Saudi Arabia
• Turkey

UNCLASSIFIED 3
20
Other ActorsIran

• Iran is pursuing fissile material. It will have a
  nuclear weapon within the decade
• It has biological warfare program and dual use
  equipment. It maintains a stockpile of chemical
  weapons
• Large missile force
• Navy is most capable in region

UNCLASSIFIED 3
21
Other ActorsRussia

• Russian cooperation in the war on terrorism, and
  muted reaction to NATO expansion is reassuring.
• Concern remains on proliferation of WMD security
  of its nuclear weapons, and expanding criminal
  syndicates.

UNCLASSIFIED 3
22
Other ActorsChina

• Chinese military spending will continue growing
• Modernizing missile forces
• PLA is acquiring high-tech arms and emphasizing
  professionalism of officer corps

UNCLASSIFIED 3
23
THE THREAT-Conclusion

• Just as our enemies are developing new ways to
  attack us, we must address the entire threat
  spectrum. Not only the traditional threats but
  emerging threats as well

UNCLASSIFIED 25