1
Health of Nations Civilization Differences
and Human Development in Post-Socialist Countries

• Anna Krasilova
• Gordey Yastrebov
• Ovsey Shkaratan
• National Research University Higher School of
  Economics
• Moscow
• Russia

2
Goals of development a shift in paradigms
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing

• Economocentrism and economic determinism
• GDP per cap., economic growth, etc.
• economic variables as major determinants and
  attributes of development
• Modernization theory (Rostow, Parsons, etc.)
• Market economy, private ownership and democracy
  as basic foundations of capitalism
• Universalist ideologies of catch-up development
• Sustainable development theories
• UNDP ideology, Human Development Index
• Gross National Happiness, Happy Life-Expectancy
  (Veenhoven), etc.
• Civilization theories (Toynbee, Spengler,
  Huntington, Danilevskiy, etc.)

3
Basic aspects of human development
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing
SUSTAINABILITY a societys capacity for 1)
demographic reproduction and 2) resisting the
potentially harmful physical, social and mental
pathologies
4
Quality of human development measurement
indicators
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing

• Physical
• life expectancy
• diseases prevalence (cancer, diabetes etc.)
• Social
• trust
• crime rates
• suicide rate etc.
• Mental
• lifelong learning
• addictions etc.

5
Empirics
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing

• 31 countries Europe and CIS
• Data sources World Bank, UNODC, WHO, ESS,
  Eurostat (2008)
• 24 indicators on physical, social and mental
  aspects of human development

6
Results (1) group means
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing
7
Results (1) interpretation
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing

• general pattern of switching priorities in
  development
• social ? physical ? mental
• 3 groups of countries with different highlights
  in development (mental for the most advanced and
  physical for the most underdeveloped)

8
Results (2)quality quantity
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing
9
Comparison with HDI (integral)
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing
underperformers
Russia and Slovakia apparently overestimated
according to UN measures
Turkey, Bulgaria, Poland far more favourable
according to our measures
10
Comparison with HDI (physical)
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing
underperformers
physical
11
Comparison with HDI (social)
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing
underperformers
12
Comparison with HDI (mental)
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing
underperformers
13
SHI Human Development GDP
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing
Russia way out where it should be according to
its economic development
Poland, Romania, Turkey most successful cases
given their economic well-being
underperformers
high variance among the Western developed
countries
14
SHI Human Development Democracy
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing
No direct relationship between democracy and
human development for the former Soviet republics
Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine (apart
from CEEs, such as Latvia, Slovakia, Estonia,
Poland, etc.)
15
Civilizational approach
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing
Civilization European Eurasian
property relations private property power-property
character of economy market exchange distributive
regime democracy authoritarianism
values individualistic collectivism
An extent of realization of a human capacity or
human development level in different societies,
is a function of a conformity degree of a
particular configuration (social, economic and
political) of a society to its civilization, or
cultural basis.
16
Conclusions
IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua
University, Beijing

• The universal imperative for success in societal
  development is human being itself and,
  particularly, its physical, social and mental
  well-being
•  
• 3 distinct groups of countries according to their
  state of sustainability
• high-risk societies (human regress aggravated by
  systemic depopulation, i.e. Russia, Ukraine,
  Belarus)
• extensively sustainable societies (moderate human
  development, yet extended demographic
  reproduction, i.e. Kazakhstan, Turkey)
• intensively sustainable societies (high human
  development, yet stable demographic reproduction,
  i.e. Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Netherlands,
  etc.)
• A certain set of political, economic and social
  intuitions can either be appropriate (like in
  most CEE countries) or inappropriate (Russia and
  CIS) to populations particular attitudes, values
  and behavior models, or civilizational belonging.
  The latter case results in a loss of
  sustainability and social decay.

17
Thank you for your attention!
18
List of variables
Variable Aspect of HD Year Data source
Disability-adjusted life expectancy, years phys. 2007 WHO
Tuberculosis, gonococcal infection, viral hepatitis B, HIV incidence, per 100000 phys. 2004-2006 WHO
SDR, cardiovascular diseases, age 0-64, per 100000 phys. 2004-2006 WHO
Diabetes prevalence, of population phys. 2004-2006 WHO
Cancer incidence women, per 100000 phys. 2008 GLOBOCAN
Intentional homicide, per 100000 soc. 2007-2008 UNODC
Deaths due to work-related accidents, per 100000 soc. 2006-2008 WHO
Persons killed or injured in road traffic accidents, per 100000 soc. 2008 WHO
SDR, suicide and self-inflicted injury, all ages, per 100000 soc. 2008 WHO
Crude divorce rate soc. 2006-2008 Eurostat
Abortions, per 1000 live births soc. 2008 WHO
Interpersonal trust level soc. 2004-2008 ESS
Daily smokers, of population, age gt15 ment. 2001-2008 WHO
Population, age 25-64, participating in education and training, ment. 2009 Eurostat
Wikipedia visitors / internet user ment. 2010 Wikipedia
Cannabis, opiates, cocaine, amphetamines prevelance, of population ment. 2003-2008 UNODC
Alcohol consumption, litres per person/year and Patterns of drinking score ment. 2003-2005 WHO
Natural population growth quantity 2005-2010 UNDP
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Data aggregation

• Inverting
• Normalizing
• Aggregating
• where Xi i variable, Yj normalized variable,
  wj weight, Am m aspect of human development,
  SHI Societal Health Index

20
SHI rating of countries
Country Integral SHI Country Integral SHI
1. Sweden 0,00 17. Portugal 38,08
2. Switzerland 0,77 18. Turkey 43,47
3. Norway 3,83 19. Czech Republic 45,59
4. Finland 5,51 20. Croatia 48,27
5. Netherlands 14,40 21. Bulgaria 48,45
6. Germany 16,95 22. Romania 50,17
7. Greece 17,30 23. Estonia 54,05
8. Denmark 17,43 24. Slovakia 56,48
9. United Kingdom 24,46 25. Hungary 57,43
10. Poland 25,66 26. Lithuania 62,96
11. France 26,84 27. Latvia 64,22
12. Italy 29,25 28. Belarus 74,57
13. Austria 32,22 29. Ukraine 80,02
14. Spain 33,33 30. Kazakhstan 89,57
15. Slovenia 34,55 31. Russia 100,00
16. Belgium 37,16
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SHI components correlation coefficients
Physical Social Mental Integral
Physical 1 0,776 0,621 0,887
Social 1 0,665 0,908
Mental 1 0,872
Integral 1
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SHI Human Development Corruption