Migration and Development

1
Migration and Development Changing
ParadigmsThe Turkish case

• Prof. Dr. Ahmet Icduygu
• MiReKoc, Migration Research Program
• Department of International Relations
• Koç University, Istanbul
• Migration and Development A
• Euro-Mediterranean Perspective
• organised by the Hellenic Migration Policy
  Institute (IMEPO)
• and the OECD Development Centre
• Rhodes, Greece, on 26-27 April 2007

2
Causes and Consequences of Emigration

• Causes of Emigration
• Economic hardship
• Social / political / cultural hardship
• Consequences of Emigration
• - easing
• Economic hardship
• Social / political / cultural hardship

3
What is Development?

• Consequences of Emigration
• - Easing / Improvement
• Economic hardship
• Social / political / cultural hardship
• Economic aspects
• Social aspects
• Political aspects
• Cultural aspects

4
History of Turkish Emigration

• Four Distinct Periods in Turkish Emigration
• 1961 1974 Massive labor migration to Western
  Europe
• 1974 1980 Decline of labor migration to
  Western Europe and
  the beginning of labor emigration to Arab
  countries
• 1980s Labor flows to Arab countries
  migration to Europe
• 1990s Labour migration to the CIS
  countries Labor
• flows to Arab
  countries migration to Europe.

5
History of Turkish Emigration

• Emigration to Europe (1961-2006)
• 1961 1975 Labor Migration
• 1975 - present Family Reunification and
  Marriage Migration
• 1980 - present Clandestine Migration and
  Asylum Seeking

6
Turkish Labor Migration by Destination, 1961-2005
Host Countries
1996-2000
2001-2005
Total
1961-1974
1975-1980
1981-1990
1991-1995














Europe
2.8
790017
97.5
13426
12.8
2612
0.6
9647
10465
9.3
16561
9.1
842728
42.4
Arab Countries
2441
0.3
74181
70.6
423208
97.7
32195
28.5
57974
31.9
798273
40.2
208274
60.4
0.4
5806
0.7
2647
2.5
2478
0.6
1324
515
0.5
176
0.1
12946
0.7
Australia
CIS Countries
-
-
-
115
0.0
65521
58.0
89623
49.3
155259
7.8
Others
36.3
12235
1.5
14792
14.1
4875
1.1
125238
4256
3.8
17533
9.6
178929
9.0
Total
100
810499
100
105046
100
433173
344598
100
112952
100
181867
100
1988135
100
7
Turkish Emigration by Destination, 1961-2005
8
Turkish Asylum-Seekers by Destination, 1981-2005
Destination
2001-2005
1981-2005
1981-1985
1986-1990
1991-1995
1996-2000












Europe
45620
185797
175557
98.6
141226
97.9
107534
97.2
655734
98.7
Canada
755
0.4
1919
1.3
2451
2.2
5125
0.8
Australia
780
0.4
928
0.6
332
0.3
2040
0.3
USA
984
0.6
199
0.1
330
0.3
1513
0.2
Total
178076
100.0
144272
100.0
110647
100.0
664412
100.0
9
Turkish Migrant Stock Abroad, mid-1980s, mid-1990s and mid-2000s Turkish Migrant Stock Abroad, mid-1980s, mid-1990s and mid-2000s Turkish Migrant Stock Abroad, mid-1980s, mid-1990s and mid-2000s Turkish Migrant Stock Abroad, mid-1980s, mid-1990s and mid-2000s Turkish Migrant Stock Abroad, mid-1980s, mid-1990s and mid-2000s Turkish Migrant Stock Abroad, mid-1980s, mid-1990s and mid-2000s Turkish Migrant Stock Abroad, mid-1980s, mid-1990s and mid-2000s
Mid-1980s Mid-1980s Mid-1990s Mid-1990s Mid-2000s Mid-2000s
 Country x 1,000 x 1,000 x 1,000
Austria 75.0 3.2 136.4 4.2 130.0 4.2
Belgium 72.5 3.1 79.5 2.4 50.0 1.6
Denmark 22.0 0.9 37.0 1.1 35.0 1.1
France 146.1 6.3 198.9 6.1 208.0 6.7
Germany 1,400.4 59.9 2,049.9 63.4 1,912.2 61.6
Netherlands 156.4 6.7 167.0 5.1 100.2 3.2
Sweden 22.0 0.9 25.0 0.8 14.0 0.4
Switzerland 51.0 2.2 73.0 2.2 79.5 2.5
UK 10.0 0.4 29.0 0.6 52.0 1.3
Other European countries 42.0 1.8 87.0 2.7 120.0 1.9
Total Europe 1,997.4 85.4 2,852.7 88.3 2,700.9 87.1
Arab countries 200.0 8.6 127.0 3.9 107.0 3.4
Australia 35.0 1.5 45.0 1.4 50.0 1.6
CIS countries 0.0 0.0 50.0 1.5 36.0 1.2
North American countries 80.0 3.4 120.0 3.7 160.0 5.1
Other countries 25.0 1.1 35.0 1.1 50.0 1.6
Total 2,337.4 100.0 3,229.7 100 3,103.9 100.0
10
Economic and Social Consequences of Turkish
Emigration Gaining from Emigration

• Emigration in Turkey results in a mixture of
  benefits and costs.
• Economic consequences
• Socio-political and cultural consequences

11
Economic Consequences

• Two basic approaches
• Optimistic the balanced growth
  (equilibrium) model
• a positive impact and an increase in the national
  balance of trade domestic investment, and
  economic growth.
• Pessimistic the asymmetric growth (conflict)
  model
• the displacement of labour to industrialized
  countries distorts and slows down the development
  in the migrants areas of origin.

12
Economic Consequences

• The beneficial effects of workers remittances
• The role of the remittances in the perennial
  foreign-exchange crisis
• The investments made by migrants limited
• the maintenance of the family left behind and
  investment in equipment, building, car etc.
• a positive impact on household welfare
• improvements in the living conditions of migrants
  

13
Economic Consequences

• The reduction in unemployment and underemployment
  
• helped to reduce unemployment pressures in
  Turkey.
• The acquisition of skills and the process of
  return migration
• State skills failed to match Turkeys need in
  human resources
• Individual the same mismatch engenders personal
  disillusionment.

14
Gaining from Emigration Economic Consequences

• State activities to channel remittance savings to
  maximize economic growth
• Workers joint stock companies
• Village Development Cooperatives
• State Industry and Workers Investment Bank in
  1975

15
Remittance Inflows, Exports, and Imports in
Turkish Economy, 1964-1985
Remittance
Exports
Imports
(x Million
(x Million
Remittance as of
Remittance as
(x Million USD)
USD)
USD)
Year
Trade Deficit
of GNP
6,3
0,1
1964
8
411
537
0,6
1965
69.8
464
572
64,6
0,8
1966
115.3
490
718
50,6
0,6
1967
93
523
685
57,4
0,6
1968
107.3
496
764
40
0,7
1969
140.6
537
801
53,3
1,5
1970
273
588
948
75,8
2,7
1971
471.4
677
1171
95,4
3,3
1972
740
885
1563
109,1
4,1
1973
1183
1317
2086
153,8
3,6
1974
1425
1532
3777
63,5
2,7
1975
1313
1401
4738
39,3
31
1,8
1976
982
1960
5129
23
1,5
1977
930
1753
5797
42,5
1,4
1978
983
2288
4599
60,3
2,2
1979
1694
2261
5069
41,4
3
1980
2071
2910
7909
58,9
3,4
1981
2490
4703
8933
69,1
3,2
1982
2140
5746
8843
43,1
2,4
1983
1513
5728
9235
49,9
3
1984
1807
7134
10757
55,5
2,5
1985
1714
8255
11344
16
Remittance Inflows, Exports, and Imports in
Turkish Economy, 1985-2004
Remittance as
Remittance
Exports
Imports
Remittance
as of
of GNP
(x Million
(x Million
(x Million
Trade
USD)
USD)
USD)
Deficit
Year
55,5
2,5
1985
1714
8255
11344
44,8
2,1
1986
1634
7457
11105
25,7
1,2
1987
1021
10190
14158
66,4
2
1988
1776
11662
14335
107,3
2,8
1989
3040
12960
15792
37,4
1990
3243
13626
22302
2,2
38,3
1991
2819
13672
21038
1,9
37,7
1992
3008
14891
22872
1,9
21,1
1993
2919
15610
29428
1,6
53,8
1994
2627
18390
23270
2
24,2
1995
3327
21975
35709
2
31,7
1996
3542
32446
43627
1,9
26,3
1997
4197
32647
48599
2,2
36,4
1998
5356
31220
45922
2,6
39,9
1999
4529
29325
40671
2,5
19,7
2000
4560
31375
54503
2,3
43,5
2001
2786
35000
41399
1,9
12,3
2002
1936
35753
51554
1,1
7,7
2003
1710
47068
69340
0,7
2,3
2004
804
63121
97540
0,2
17
Remittance Inflows in Turkish Economy in Million
USD, 1964-2004
18
Remittances as of GNP, 1964-2004
19
Gaining from Migration Social Consequences

• Emigration is an important source for
• social change
• Changes in generation and gender relationships
• The changing status of women
• The positive impact on the roles and
  relationships of parents and children
• The improvement of the migrants quality of life

20
Gaining from Migration Socio-political
Consequences

• Socio-political changes
• More respect for human rights and democracy
• Dual citizenship rights, the changing status of
  military service for emigrants

21
Unintended Consequences of the Turkish Emigration

• Cultural-revivalist tendencies among the Turkish
  migrants abroad
• Muslim fundamentalism and Kurdish
  nationalism
• Problems related to return migration and
  second-generation returnees
• Reintegration and adoptation problems
• The decrease in the population growth but
  increase in east-to-west and rural-to-urban
  migration

22
Naturalization of Turkish Citizens by Country of New Citizenship Naturalization of Turkish Citizens by Country of New Citizenship Naturalization of Turkish Citizens by Country of New Citizenship Naturalization of Turkish Citizens by Country of New Citizenship Naturalization of Turkish Citizens by Country of New Citizenship Naturalization of Turkish Citizens by Country of New Citizenship
(x 1,000) (x 1,000) (x 1,000) (x 1,000) (x 1,000)
Country 1991-1993 1994-1996 1997-1999 2000-2002 1991-2002
Austria 4.7 6.6 7.8 18.3 37.4
Belgium 7.2 13.0 17.5 31.7 69.4
Denmark 1.1 2.6 5.4 5.9 15.0
France 2.8 8.8 14.5 13.8 39.9
Germany 20.3 97.0 129.1 159.4 405.8
Netherlands 29.5 87.6 39.9 10.2 167.2
Sweden 5.8 7.6 4.9 4.2 22.5
Switzerland 1.4 3.6 6.2 6.2 17.4
UK 0.2 0.5 2.0 2.5 5.2
Total 73.0 227.3 227.3 251.2 778.8
23
Concluding Remarks

• Changing Paradigms of Migration and Development
• 1960-1980 Statism
• Import-substitution
• State intervention
• Protectionism
• Remittances more important
• Economic consequences more important
• 1980-onwards Liberalism
• Free trade
• Stock exchange
• Remittances less important
• (growing importance of FDI)
• Social/political/cultural consequences more
  important

24
Thank You