Eastern State University: Football Program Sales Simulations

1
Eastern State UniversityFootball Program Sales
Simulations
EMIS Systems Engineering Design

• Gerardo Burciaga
• Mike Johnson
• Jeff Nissen
• 11/2/2007
• EMIS 7310

Case Study 2 EMIS 7310 Fall 2007
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EMIS Systems Engineering Design

• Souvenir football program sales
• Past performance probability distribution

Programs Sold Probability
2300 0.15
2400 0.22
2500 0.24
2600 0.21
2700 0.18

• Each program costs 0.80
• Sold game day for 2.00
• All unsold programs are recycled

Case Study 2 EMIS 7310 Fall 2007
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EMIS Systems Engineering Design
19a) Simulate the sales of programs at 10
football games. Use the last column in the
random number table and begin at the top of the
column
Programs Sold Prob. Cum Prob. Interval
2300 0.15 0.15 01 to 15
2400 0.22 0.37 16 to 37
2500 0.24 0.61 38 to 61
2600 0.21 0.82 62 to 82
2700 0.18 1 83 to 100
Game Random Number Sold
1 7 2,300
2 60 2,500
3 77 2,600
4 49 2,500
5 76 2,600
6 95 2,700
7 51 2,500
8 16 2,400
9 14 2,300
10 85 2,700
average 2,510
Case Study 2 EMIS 7310 Fall 2007
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EMIS Systems Engineering Design
19b) If the university decided to print 2,500
programs for each game, what would the average
profit be for the 10 games simulated in part a)












Game Random Number Sold Revenue Cost Profit
1 7 2,300 4,600 2,000 2,600
2 60 2,500 5,000 2,000 3,000
3 77 2,500 5,000 2,000 3,000
4 49 2,500 5,000 2,000 3,000
5 76 2,500 5,000 2,000 3,000
6 95 2,500 5,000 2,000 3,400
7 51 2,500 5,000 2,000 3,000
8 16 2,400 4,800 2,000 2,800
9 14 2,300 4,600 2,000 2,600
10 85 2,500 5,000 2,000 3,000
Average 2,940
Case Study 2 EMIS 7310 Fall 2007
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EMIS Systems Engineering Design
19c) If the university decided to print 2,600
programs for each game, what would the average
profit be for the 10 games simulated in part a)
Game Random Number Sold Revenue Cost Profit
1 7 2,300 4,600 2,080 2,520
2 60 2,500 5,000 2,080 2,920
3 77 2,600 5,200 2,080 3,120
4 49 2,500 5,000 2,080 2,920
5 76 2,600 5,200 2,080 3,120
6 95 2,600 5,200 2,080 3,120
7 51 2,500 5,000 2,080 2,920
8 16 2,400 4,800 2,080 2,720
9 14 2,300 4,600 2,080 2,520
10 85 2,600 5,300 2,080 3,120
Average 2,900
Case Study 2 EMIS 7310 Fall 2007
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EMIS Systems Engineering Design
20. When poor weather occurs on the day of a
football game, the crowd that attends the game is
only half of capacity. When this occurs, the
sales of programs decreases, and the total sales,
are given in the following table
Programs Sold Probability
1200 0.25
1300 0.24
1400 0.19
1500 0.17
1600 0.15
Programs must be printed two days prior to game
day. The university is trying to establish a
policy for determining the number of programs to
print based on the weather forecast.
Case Study 2 EMIS 7310 Fall 2007
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EMIS Systems Engineering Design
20a) If the forecast is for a 20 chance of bad
weather, simulate the weather for 10 games with
this forecast. Use column 4 of table 5.
Case Study 2 EMIS 7310 Fall 2007
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EMIS Systems Engineering Design
20b) Simulate the demand for programs at 10 games
in which the weather is bad. Use column 5 of the
random number table (table 5) and begin with the
first number in the column.
Programs Sold Prob. Cum Prob. Interval
1200 0.25 0.25 01 to 25
1300 0.24 0.49 26 to 49
1400 0.19 0.68 50 to 68
1500 0.17 0.85 69 to 85
1600 0.15 1 86 to 100
Game Random Number Sold
1 53 1,400
2 74 1,500
3 5 1,200
4 71 1,500
5 6 1,200
6 49 1,300
7 11 1,200
8 13 1,200
9 62 1,400
10 69 1,500
Average 1,600
Case Study 2 EMIS 7310 Fall 2007
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EMIS Systems Engineering Design
20c) Beginning with a 20 chance of bad weather
and 80 chance of good weather, develop a flow
chart that would be used to prepare a simulation
of the demand for football programs for 10 games.
Case Study 2 EMIS 7310 Fall 2007
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EMIS Systems Engineering Design
20d) Suppose there is a 20 chance of bad weather
and the university has decided to print 2,500
programs. Simulate the total profits that would
be achieved for 10 games.
Case Study 2 EMIS 7310 Fall 2007