OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

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OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?
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THE WAR ON TERROR

• U.S.-imposed rules of geopolitical game
• Co-existence with geo-economic game
• Latin America
• spectator role in geopolitics
• active participation in geo-economic game

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PREVAILING CONDITIONS

• Ideological divisions left, right, center
• Prevalence of democratic discourse
• Focus on strategic options
• Unavailable alternatives
• Bolivarian dream of collective unity
• Rule of international law, organizations
• Social revolution
• Thus geo-economic option (with U.S. focused on
  geopolitics)

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GE0-ECONOMICS 1. TURN TOWARD THE NORTH

• Vicente Fox (Mexico)
• Hopes for immigration reform
• NAFTA constraints
• Opposition throughout Latin America
• Comrades in the War on Terror (Geopolitics too)
• Colombia
• Guatemala
• The FTA Club
• Chile special case
• Central America DR
• Peru
• Colombia
• Panama

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GEO-ECONOMICS 2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY

• Brazil (Lula Dilma)
• Grandeza brasileira
• Role in Haiti
• Resistance to FTAA
• Venezuela (Chávez)
• ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas)
• International assistance programs
• Alliances with Cuba and pink tide countries
• Denunciations of Bush and USA
• Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)

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GEO-ECONOMICS 3. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY

• Brazil (Lula)
• WTO
• Group of 20 (a.k.a. 21)
• G3, G5
• Venezuela (Chávez)
• Non-Aligned Movement
• UN Security Council
• Petroleum exporters (including Iran)

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GEO-ECONOMICS 4. BEYOND THE HEMISPHERE

• Europe
• Divisions over Iraq
• Concern about EU future
• FTAs with Mexico, Chile
• Distancing from/by Spain
• Asia
• Withdrawal of Japan
• Eruption of China fever
• PRC strategic partnerships with Brazil,
  Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico cooperative
  partnership with Chile, friendly and
  cooperative relations with Cuba
• Iran?
• Really?

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ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS

• Exports to China, 2008
• Argentina 9.0
• Brazil 12.4
• Chile 4.8
• Mexico 0.7
• Cuba 18.4
• Liberation from IMF
• Argentina 2005 (9.8 bn)
• Brazil 2005 (15.5 bn)
• IMF relegated to sidelines

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U.S. SHARES OF TRADE, 2000-2010

• Imports __2000__ ___2010___
• Argentina 19.1 13.8
• Brazil 23.1 15.0
• Chile 17.8 17.0
• Mexico 72.0 60.6
• Venezuela 33.5 26.6
• Exports __2000__ ___2010___
• Argentina 12.0 5.4
• Brazil 22.4 9.6
• Chile 16.8 10.4
• Mexico 88.7 73.5
• Venezuela 51.9 38.7

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POLITICAL DIMENSIONS

• Distaste for GWB and U.S. policies
• Resuscitation of Cuba
• Regional organizations w/o USA
• Rio Group (1986, 23 members)
• Latin American Summit on Integration and
  Development (2008, 33 members)
• CELAC (2010, 33 members)
• Ibero-American Summits (1991)
• MERCOSUR (1991, 4 members plus)
• UNASUR (2005)

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BILATERAL DIMENSIONS

• Argentina a distant relationship
• Brazil getting better all the time
• Chile cooperative friendship
• Colombia strategic partners or uncertain
  allies?

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THE BENEFITS OF INATTENTION?