Storms activity

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Storms activity and atmospheric
circulation Galina V.Surkova, Alexandre V.Kislov
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Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory
WP1. High resolution hindcasting of storm surges
in the key coastal regions of European Russia
(Barents, Black, Baltic and Caspian Seas) and
analysis of the relative importance of different
ocean-related factors for associated coastal
flooding. WP6. Development of the regional risk
assessments of extreme coastal hazards in
different regions under present and future
climate conditions.
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Purpose of the work
Automatic classification of atmospheric
circulation types accompanied by storm surges
Recognition of these atmospheric circulation
patterns in climate projections
Regional projections of the frequency and
intensity of extreme events in the coastal zones
in 21st century
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Meteorological observations
Reanalysis ERA-Interim (0,75x0,75 lat x long,
4-daily) NCEP-NCAR (slp 2,5x2,5 u,v 1,9x1,9
4-daily)
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Calendar of events
Observations on coastal meteorological stations
1) All events wind speed Vgt15m/s
and 2) known sea storms
the most outstanding storm events
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19
events
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Beaufort scale
7. High wind,moderate gale 13,9 17,1 m/s 8.
Gale, fresh gale 17,2 20,7 m/s 9. Strong gale
(storm) 20,8 24,4 m/s 10. Storm 24,5 28,4
m/s 11. Violent storm 28,5 32,6 m/s 12.
Hurricane gt33 m/s - hurricane
Sir Francis Beaufort (1774 1857)
Storm warning 25 m/s
But
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Wind speed frequency all events with Vgt15 m/s
(purple) Extreme events/strong storms (yellow)
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Sections of the coast
1
2
5
4
3
6
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Factors 1. Exposition to the wind 2. Relief
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Monthly frequency, vgt15 m/s (1961-1990)
1
2
5
4
3
6
7
Nov-March
April-Oct
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Wind roses for vgt15 m/s (1961-1990)
1
2
5
4
3
All stations
6
7
Nov-March
April-Oct
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Storms
western part of the sea
eastern part of the sea
total
Total events, Vgt15 m/s (1961-1990) Total events, Vgt15 m/s (1961-1990)
Month All events 5 days duration and more
1 30 24
2 26 17
3 30 15
11 31 15
12 27 17
Sum 144 88
Number of all events with Vgt15 m/s (1961-1990)
- gt950
Number of extreme storms - 17
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and so on
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Before Circulation patterns for extreme storm
events
Climate Mean sea level pressure (1979-2000,
Atlas ERA-40)
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Circulation patterns for extreme storm events
I (14 events)
II (5 events)
2011, February, 13
2011, October, 18
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Monthly frequency, vgt15 m/s (1961-1990)
Nov-March
April-Oct
Wind roses for vgt15 m/s (1961-1990)
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Typical circulation patterns for extreme storm
events
1952, November 11
1981, November 4
1995, March 12
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• Done by now
• Routine work with initial data
• Classification of synoptic situation types
  accompanied by storm surges
• In progress
• Automatic classification of atmospheric
  circulation types accompanied by storm surges
• Regional projections of the frequency and
  intensity of extreme events in the coastal zones
  in 21st century

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Thank you !