Background on Climate Change Issues and CDM ?????CDM???? J

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Background on Climate Change Issues and
CDM?????CDM????Jørgen Fenhann Biomass CDM
Workshop ???CDM???Beijing 12-15 November 2007
2007?11?12-15?

• Content of the presentation????
• Greenhouse gases Global Warming Potential
• ??????????
• Emission Scenarios
• ????????
• Increasing global temperature
• ??????
• Some impact of Climate Change
• ???????
• The objectives of UNFCCC and the CDM
• ????????????CDM???
• The flexible Kyoto mechanisms
• ??????????

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Global Warming Potentials??????
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Greenhouse-gas Concentrations
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Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions?????CO2??
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IPCC SRES emission scenarios IPCC SERS?????
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Correlation between CO2 and CCO2??????
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Historical global temperature increase ???????????
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Annual 2004 temperature anomalies compared to
1961-90 data2004??1961-1990??????????
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Sea Level Rise by 2300 ?2300?????????? Assuming
stabilisation at 3 ºC warming This is
2xCO2-equivalent, i.e. 450 ppm
CO2 ????????3?,????????CO2???,?450 ppm CO2
Thermal expansion ??? 0.4-0.9 m TAR, not fully considering THC TAR,??????THC
Glaciers ?? 0.4 m TAR, assumed 80 loss of total TAR,???????80
Greenland ?? 0.9-1.8 m Lower TAR Upper doubled ??TAR,????????
Antarctica ??? 1-2 m Estimate based on WAIS decay over 900-1800 years ??WAIS, 900-1800????
Sum ?? 2.7-5.1 m and increasing further from there ?????????
3-5 m sea level rise dangerous
interference ?????3-5???????? Source
Rahmstorf, S., C. Jaeger (2004)
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More powerful cyclones???????
Source P.J. Webster et al. Science 16 Sept.
2005.
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The Arctic, the globes canary bird????????????
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Retreat of glaciers????
The retreat of the South Cascade Glacier in
Washingtons Cascade Mountains shown in
photographs from (a) 1928 and (b) 2000. Since
1957, the glacier has retreated about 700 meters,
losing about one-fifth of its length and
one-third of its volume. Source USGS.
??????????Cascade???Cascade??????,1928?-(a),2000?
-(b)??1957?,????????700?,???????1/5,????1/3????
USGS
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Ocean acidification????
Source Scientific American, March 2006

• The uptake of CO2 has led to a reduction of the
  pH of surface seawater of 0.1 units.
• ?????CO2???????pH????0.1???
• This will hamper the ability of certain
  organisms to make their shells Phytoplankton,
  foraminifea and pteropods. These tiny creatures
  constitute the major food source for fish and
  some whales.
• ????????????????
• ????????????????????????????????

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The United Nation Framework Convention on Climate
Change??????????? (UNFCCC)

• Article 2 The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC
  is to stabilize atmospheric concentration of
  Greenhouse Gases at a level that would prevent
  dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
  climatic system
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The purpose of the CDMCDM???

• Kyoto Protocol Article 12.2 The purpose of the
  clean development mechanism shall be
• ???????12.2??????????
• To assist Parties not included in Annex I in
  achieving sustainable development and in
  contributing to the ultimate objective of the
  Convention, and
• ???????1?????????????????????,
• To assist Parties included in Annex I in
  achieving compliance with their quantified
  emission limitation and reduction commitments
  under Article 3.
• ????1??????????????????????????

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The Flexible Kyoto Mechanisms??????????

• Emission Trading ????(ET)
• Joint Implementation ????(JI)
• Clean Development Mechanism ??????(CDM)
• The only way to obtain credits before 2008 is to
  make CDM projects. Actually there are 5 different
  mechanisms
• ?2008?????????????????CDM??,????5???