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Alter

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Title: Alter


1
Business Processes
2
Opening Case- Charles Schwab
  • Considered the only retail operation to have
    successfully adapted its business to the Web
  • Built on the idea of eliminating stockbrokers and
    providing only transaction processing services
  • Started offering online trading early (using
    proprietary software), and was quick to move to
    Web trading

3
Work Systems Snapshot Charles Schwab
  • CUSTOMER
  • Charles Schwab account holder who buys and sells
    stocks.
  • PRODUCTS SERVICES
  • Execution of buy and sell transactions
  • Online stock data and stock analysis
  • Monthly account reports

4
Work Systems Snapshot Charles Schwab
  • BUSINESS PROCESS
  • Evaluate current status of account
  • Decide what to buy or sell
  • Enter the buy or sell order on-line
  • Receive confirmation of completed trade
  • Receive monthly reports and other brokerage
    information
  • INFORMATION
  • Market price and purchase price of stocks
  • Analysts reports
  • Buy or sell orders
  • Account holders current portfolio of stocks,
    bonds, and other assets
  • TECHNOLOGY
  • Personal Computer
  • Schwabs hardware and software for tracking
    portfolios and trades
  • The Internet (Infrastructure)
  • PARTICIPANTS
  • Account Holder
  • Financial professional (if desired)
  • Schwab back office staff

5
Introduction
  • In order to develop information systems or
    understand them from a business professionals
    viewpoint, one needs to be able to describe and
    analyze business processes.
  • We will emphasize the relationship between
    process architecture and process performance.
    Recall
  • Improvements in a work system are usually related
    to the links between the architecture and the
    performance perspectives.
  • Customer satisfaction is largely determined by
    product performance.
  • Product performance is determined by a
    combination of product architecture and the
    internal work system performance.

6
From work system architecture to customer
satisfaction
7
Process Modeling
  • Documenting a Business Process

8
Process Modeling
  • A business process that involves naming business
    processes and subdividing them into their basic
    elements
  • Helps clarify the problem the information system
    attempts to solve
  • Business Process Reengineering (BPR) the
    complete redesign of a business process using IT

9
Fords New Payables System
  • New Payables to reduce staff from 500 to 400.
  • Mazdas A/P Staff had only 5 individuals.
  • Differences in the Business Process Model
  • Consider the degree of structure in Mazda model.
  • Much of Fords A/P Staff time was spent on
    Exception Processing.
  • New System requires only 125 persons.

10
Fords New Payables System
  • What changed in the new Ford system?
  • Are the successes of the Ford and Mazda systems
    an indictment of management practices in other
    organizations?
  • Work System Snapshot

11
Ford Reengineers Its Payables Process
  • Old process
  • The receiving department accepted orders that did
    NOT match the purchasing order
  • Lots of overhead to reconcile the inconsistencies
  • New process
  • ONLY shipments that match the purchase order are
    accepted
  • The information is entered into a shared database

12
  • The business process was changed, by eliminating
    steps that did not add value
  • The new information system was successful only
    because of the reorganized work flow

13
Fords New Payables System
14
Fords New Payables System
CUSTOMER Fords suppliers Fords manufacturing
and purchasing departments
PRODUCTS SERVICES Verification that the the
order was fulfilled correctly by the
supplier Payment to the supplier
15
Fords New Payables System
  • BUSINESS PROCESS
  • Major Steps
  • Order material
  • Receive shipments
  • Reconcile receipts with purchase orders
  • Pay suppliers
  • Rationale
  • store purchase orders in a shared database
  • accept shipments only if they match the purchase
    order
  • pay on receipt, not invoice

16
Fords New Payables System
PARTICIPANTS Purchasing department Receiving
department Accounts payable department
INFORMATION Purchase order Receipt confirmation
TECHNOLOGY Computer system supporting a shared
database
17
Process Modeling Business Process Architecture
  • Process Modeling - A method of documenting
    process architecture by identifying major
    processes and sub-dividing them into linked
    sub-processes.
  • Data Flow Diagrams
  • Flow charts
  • Structured English

18
Data Flow Diagrams (DFDs)
  • Represent the flow of data between different
    processes within a system
  • Simple intuitive, not focusing on details
  • Describe what users do, rather than what
    computers do
  • Limitations
  • Focus only on flows of information
  • Ignore flows of materials, decision points, etc.

19
Figure 3.1 - Symbols used in data flow diagrams
20
Creating Data Flow Diagrams
  • The starting point for a DFD is a Context
    Diagram, which shows sources and destinations of
    the data being used and generated.
  • Context diagram bounds the system summarizes
    the data flows
  • The context diagram establishes the scope of the
    system.
  • Next identify processes, and break them down into
    sub-processes to describe how work is done.
  • Possible to look at a process at any level of
    detail
  • The value of DFDs is in resolving disagreements
    about how work is currently done, or it should be
    done in the future.
  • Example Ford Accounts Payable.

21
Figure 3.2 - Context diagram for the Ford
purchasing system
22
F 3.3 - Data flow diagram showing the main
processes in Fords original purchasing system
23
F 3.4 - Data flow diagram dividing PCH 1 into
four subprocesses
24
Example Data Flow Diagram Student Grading
Final Grades
REGISTRARs OFFICE
STUDENTS
Current Grade
Test Scores
Current Score
CALCULATEUNIVERSITYGRADES
CALCULATECLASSGRADES
TEACHER
Final Grades
Final Score
CLASS/GRADEFILE
STUDENTFILE
25
Other Process Modeling Techniques
  • DFDs are used extensively. However, other
    techniques can also be used to fill in some
    details not expressed by DFDs. DFDs do not
    express the sequence and timing of processes nor
    the detailed logic of processes.
  • Flowcharting - represent the sequence and logic
    of procedures
  • Structured English - pseudo-code - represent
    the precise logic of a procedure by writing it
    down.

26
F 3.6 Flowcharts demonstrate conditions
27
Please note
  • Idealized business process the way the process
    is supposed to work
  • Assumes that the participants follow the rules
  • Workaround a divergence
  • Necessary when the rules built into the system
    become an obstacle to getting the work done
  • May indicate a poor design or that an external
    change has occurred

28
Reality Check
  • Can you identify a business process that was
    overly idealized and you had to develop a work
    around in order to accomplish a goal?

29
Process Characteristics
30
Architectural Characteristics of a Business
Process
  • Eight Characteristics that often affect business
    process performance
  • 1. Degree of Structure
  • Range of Involvement
  • Level of Integration
  • Rhythm
  • Complexity
  • Degree of Reliance on Machines
  • Prominence of Planning and Control
  • Attention to Errors and Exceptions

31
1 Degree of Structure
  • The extent to which a task or business process
    can be scripted in advance, e.g.,
  • Order of steps
  • Required information
  • Validation
  • Relationships between inputs and outputs

32
Structured Tasks
  • Structured task possible to exactly specify how
    the task is to be performed and the evaluation
    criteria
  • Ex. totaling invoices, ATMs, etc.
  • information requirements known exactly
  • methods of processing known precisely
  • desired format of information known exactly
  • decisions or steps within the process are clearly
    defined and repetitive.
  • Criteria for making decisions clearly understood.
  • Success in executing the task can be measured
    precisely

33
Semi structured Tasks
  • Semistructured task information requirements
    and procedures are generally known, but some
    aspects rely on human judgment
  • Ex. medical diagnosis

34
Unstructured Tasks
  • Unstructured task cannot specify what
    information is to be used, how to use it, nor
    what the evaluation criteria should be
  • so poorly understood that the information to be
    used, method of using the information, criteria
    for deciding when task is done can not be
    specified.
  • Unstructured tasks are performed based on
    experience, intuition, trial and error, rules of
    thumb, and very qualitative measures.
  • Ex. choosing a picture for the cover of a
    fashion magazine
  • The desired degree of structure is sometimes a
    matter of controversy

35
Figure 3.7 - Structuring loan authorization
36
  • Successful Information systems impose the amount
    of structure appropriate for the task being
    supported
  • Too much structure stifles creativity
  • Too little structure may lead to inefficiencies
    and errors

37
  • DEGREE TO WHICH STRUCTURE IS IMPOSED
  • Highest Substitution of technology for people
  • High Enforcement of rules or procedures
  • Low Access to information or tools
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • People doing the work are prevented from their
    judgement.
  • People doing the work feel like cogs in a machine
    because they have too little autonomy.
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • Easily foreseeable errors occur because
    well-understood rules are not applied
    consistently.
  • Outputs are inconsistent.
  • Review Table 3.2 p. 98.

38
2 Range of Involvement
  • Refers to the organizational span of people
    associated with the business process
  • Too narrow decisions are made from a local
    viewpoint, often missing enterprise-wide
    opportunities
  • Too wide business processes slow down

39
  • RANGE OF INVOLVEMENT
  • too many participants or too few
  • the organizational span of people involved in a
    process.
  • RANGE OF INVOLVEMENT
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • Work is slowed down because too many people get
    involved before steps are completed.
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • Work is performed based on narrow or personal
    considerations considerations, resulting in
    decisions that may not be the best for the
    overall organization.
  • The Role of Information Systems
  • Information systems can be designed to broaden or
    constrict the range of involvement.
  • Executive Information Systems
  • Case Manager Approach
  • TQM Reduce involvement and empower workers
  • Note separation of duties from an internal audit
    perspective.

40
3 Level of Integration
  • Often a confusing term
  • The right level of integration is not obvious
  • Too little disorganized unproductive
  • Too much complex hard to control
  • INTEGRATION mutual responsiveness
    collaboration between distinct activities or
    processes
  • Related to the speed with which one responds to
    events in the other

41
3 Level of Integration
  • Integration is the mutual responsiveness and
    collaboration between distinct activities or
    processes.
  • In general, the extent of integration between two
    processes or activities is related to the speed
    with which one responds to the other.
  • The speed depends on the immediacy of
    communication and the degree to which the process
    responds to the information communicated.
  • e.g. level of integration between NJIT Registrar
    and Rutgers-Newark Registrar
  • Five Levels of Integration
  • common culture
  • common standards
  • information sharing
  • coordination
  • collaboration

42
Five levels of integration
  • Common culture
  • Shared understandings beliefs
  • Common standards
  • Using consistent terminology procedures
  • Information sharing
  • Independent business processes can share each
    others data
  • Coordination
  • Separate but interdependent processes respond to
    each others needs and limitations
  • Collaboration
  • Strong interdependence the unique identity of
    each process begins to disappear

43
Five levels of integration between business
processes
44
Five levels of integration between business
processes - continued
45
Five levels of integration between business
processes - continued
46
Level of Integration
  • LEVEL OF INTEGRATION
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • Steps in the process are too intertwined.
  • Participants in different business processes get
    in each others way.
  • To change one step it is necessary to analyze too
    many other steps or processes.
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • Steps in the processes are too independent.
  • The process needs greater integration to produce
    results.

47
4 Rhythm
  • The frequency and predictability with which a
    process occurs
  • Periodic
  • Event-driven
  • Haphazard
  • E-business makes it possible to support more
    responsive business rhythms

48
5 Managing Complexity
  • Complexity how many types of elements the
    system contains the number and nature of their
    interaction
  • Complex systems are difficult to develop and
    understand
  • Difficult to anticipate the consequences of
    changes

49
  • How to handle complexity?
  • Eliminate low value variables
  • Different versions of processes and information
    that exist simply because of historical accident
  • Recognize variations explicitly and treat them
    differently, instead of using a fundamentally
    similar process

50

Complexity
  • Systems that are too simple dont handle the
    complexity of the problem systems that are too
    complex are hard to understand, maintain, and
    fix.
  • Complexity can be measured by the number of
    elements it contains, and the number and nature
    of their interactions
  • Reduce Complexity by reducing low value
    variations, reducing the number of interacting
    components, and simplify the nature of
    interactions.
  • COMPLEXITY
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • Participants, managers, and programmers have
    difficulty understanding how the system operates
    or what will happen if it is changed.
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • The system cannot handle the different cases that
    it should be able to handle.

51
6 Degree of Reliance on Machines
  • Tasks assigned to computers are
  • Totally structured
  • Can be described completely
  • Require speed, accuracy, endurance
  • Tasks assigned to people require
  • Common sense
  • Intelligence
  • Judgment
  • Creativity

52
Degree of Reliance on Machines
  • Not everything can be automated!
  • DEGREE OF RELIANCE ON MACHINES
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • People become disengaged from their work.
  • Peoples skills may decrease.
  • Mistakes occur because people overestimate what
    the computers are programmed to handle.
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • Productivity and consistency decrease as bored
    people perform repetitive work that computers
    could do more efficiently.

53
7 Prominence of Planning and Control
  • Participants in a business process need to know
    what to do, when to do it, and how to make sure
    it was done right.
  • Planning - decide what work to do and what
    outputs to produce when.
  • Executing - process of doing the work
  • Controlling - use information about past work
    performance to assure goals are attained and
    plans carried out.

54
Planning, Execution, and Control- Figure 3.10
55
Comparison of Planning, Execution, and Control
  • PLANNING
  • Time focus Future
  • Important issues related to information
  • Having reliable methods of projecting into the
    future by combining models, assumptions, and data
    about the past and present
  • EXECUTION
  • Time focus Present
  • Important issues related to information
  • Providing information that tells people what to
    do now to meet the plan and adjust for any
    problems that have occurred recently
  • Using current information to identify problems or
    errors in current work
  • Collecting information without getting in the way
    of doing the work
  • CONTROL
  • Time focus Past
  • Important issues related to information
  • Having reliable methods of using data about the
    past to develop or adjust plans, and to motivate
    employees
  • Provide information current enough that it can be
    used to guide current actions

56
Attention to Planning, Execution, and Control
  • ATTENTION TO PLANNING, EXECUTION, AND CONTROL
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • Too much effort goes into planning and
    controlling within the process, and not enough
    goes into execution.
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • Insufficient effort in planning and control
    leaves the business process inconsistent and
    unresponsive to customer requirements

57
8 Attention to Errors Exceptions
  • The process architecture should specify how the
    process should respond when errors, exceptions,
    or malfunctions occur
  • Tradeoff
  • Wasting resources by being unsystematic vs.
    diverting resources from the main system goals
    through excessive formalization of exception
    handling

58
Treatment of Exceptions, Errors, and Malfunctions
Exceptions The system does not handle special
cases properly. Operational failures The system
fails to operate as intended. Bugs The system
does not correctly reflect the ideas of the
system designers. Design errors The system does
what the designers intended, but they failed to
consider certain factors. Capacity shortfall The
system cannot meet current output
requirements. Displacement of problems The
system creates problems that must be absorbed and
fixed somewhere else. Computer crime The system
is used for theft, sabotage, or other illegal
purposes often based on fraudulent data inputs.
59
Treatment of Exceptions, Errors, and Malfunctions
  • The danger in designing systems is not planning
    for the unexpected.
  • A mistake should be as easy to correct as it was
    to commit in the first place!
  • TREATMENT OF EXCEPTIONS, ERRORS, AND MALFUNCTIONS
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • The process focuses on exceptions and becomes
    inefficient and inconsistent.
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • The process fails altogether or handles
    exceptions incorrectly, resulting in low
    productivity or poor quality and responsiveness
    perceived by customers.

60
Evaluating Business Process Performance
  • Seven Main Performance Variables

61
Process Performance Variables
  • Activity rate
  • Output rate
  • Consistency
  • Productivity
  • Cycle Time
  • Downtime
  • Security

62
Evaluating Business Process Performance
  • PROCESS PERFORMANCE VARIABLES
  • Rate of output - the amount of output it
    actually produces in a time period
  • consider capacity and scalability
  • How can I handle special needs?
  • Consistency
  • A Basic TQM tenet unwarranted variation
    destroys quality.
  • Carefully specify how something should be
    performed and monitor the process to ensure it is
    performed consistently.

63
Activity Rate and Output Rate
  • Output rate the amount of outputs produced
    per unit of time
  • Activity rate the number of interim work steps
    performed per unit of time
  • The distinction is important mainly for systems
    that take long to complete and/or are complex
  • The activity rate is a good predictor of the
    output rate

64
  • You should consider capacity and scalability
    How can you handle special needs?
  • Capacity the theoretical limit for the output
    rate
  • The challenge to determine the ideal capacity and
    output rate
  • Scalability the ability to increase or decrease
    the capacity without major disruption or
    excessive costs

65
Consistency
  • Consistency applying the same techniques in the
    same order to obtain the same results
  • Basic TQM Rule unwarranted variability destroys
    quality
  • Information systems may force organizations to do
    things consistently
  • Emphasizing consistency often makes it difficult
    to be flexible
  • Flexibility the ease with which the process can
    be modified to
  • Meet customer needs
  • Adapt to external changes

66
Control chart for monitoring consistency of a
business process
  • Carefully specify how something should be
    performed and monitor
  • the process to ensure it is performed
    consistently

67
  • How to achieve FLEXIBILITY WITHIN A FRAMEWORK OF
    CONSISTENCY
  • Avoid restrictions that can be left to the
    judgment of the process participants
  • Delay as long as possible converting information
    to physical results that are hard to change
  • Use technical tools and methods that are
    themselves flexible

68
Productivity
  • Productivity the amount of output produced vs.
    the resources consumed
  • Waste any activity that uses resources without
    adding value
  • Reduces productivity
  • Built into the way many processes operate
  • Ford example
  • IT does not always lead to increased productivity

69
Cycle Time
  • Cycle time the length of time between the start
    of a process and its completion
  • Processing time for each step
  • Waiting times between steps
  • Dependencies between steps
  • Bottleneck an essential step where a capacity
    shortage induces consistent delays

70
Figure 3.13Identifying the causes of long cycle
times
71
Downtime
  • Downtime the amount of time the process is out
    of operation
  • Unexpected failures
  • Planned maintenance
  • Especially important consideration for
    e-business

72
Security
  • Security the likelihood that the process is not
    vulnerable to unauthorized uses, sabotage, or
    criminal activity
  • Depends on procedures that insure accuracy and
    prevent unauthorized access

73
Finding the Right Level for Each Process
Performance Variable
  • ACTIVITY RATE
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • Wasted effort and buildup of unneeded inventory
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • Inefficient resource usage and imbalanced work in
    process
  • RATE OF OUTPUT
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • Lower productivity and consistency due to
    increasing rates of errors and rework
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • Lower productivity due to the cost of unused
    capacity

74
Finding the Right Level for Each Process
Performance Variable
  • PRODUCTIVITY
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • Too much emphasis on cost per unit and too little
    emphasis on quality of the output
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • Output unnecessarily expensive to produce
  • CONSISTENCY
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • Inflexibility, making it difficult to produce
    what the customer wants
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • Too much variability in the output, reducing
    quality perceived by the customer

75
Finding the Right Level for Each Process
Performance Variable
  • CYCLE TIME
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • Lack of responsiveness to customer
  • Excess costs and waste due to delays
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • Product produced too soon is damaged or
    compromised before the customer needs it Delivery
    before the customer is ready
  • FLEXIBILITY
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • Too much variability in the output, reducing
    quality perceived by the customer
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • Inflexibility, making it difficult to produce
    what the customer wants or to modify the process
    over time
  • SECURITY
  • Problem if the level is too high
  • Excess attention to security gets in the way of
    doing work
  • Problem if the level is too low
  • Insufficient attention to security permits
    security breaches

76
Process Performance Variables and Related Roles
of Information systems
  • Review Table 3.5 p. 111.

77
Introduction to Communication and Decision Making
78
  • Activities that are part of business processes
    include
  • Processing data
  • Communicating
  • Making decisions
  • Thinking/creating
  • Taking physical action

79
Improving Communication and Decision Making
Performance within Business Processes
ACTIVITY RATE AND OUTPUT RATE Improve
communication Make sure communication does not
cause delays in performing work steps Communicate
more information or more types to more
people Improve decision making Make sure
information for decision making is readily
available Make more decisions using better, more
complete information CONSISTENCY Improve
communication Make sure different people receive
the same communication Improve decision making
Make sure repetitive decisions are made in the
same way PRODUCTIVITY Improve communication
Achieve more communication with less effort.
Permit efficient communication in many different
forms. Improve decision making Make better
decisions with less effort. Maintain decision
quality across a wider range of situations.
80
Improving Communication and Decision Making
Performance within Business Processes
CYCLE TIME Improve communication Eliminate
undesirable delays in communication Improve
decision making Eliminate unnecessary delays in
decision making DOWNTIME Improve communication
Provide backup channels to continue communication
even if the regular channel is not available.
Improve decision making Automate certain
decisions to minimize the impacts of process
downtime. SECURITY Improve communication Make
sure communications go only to the intended
recipients Improve decision making Make sure
decisions are controlled only by those authorized
to make the decisions
81
Basic Concepts of Communication
82
Communication
  • Communication is an interpersonal process of
    sending and receiving symbols with messages
    attached to them.

83
General Model of a Communication System
Feedback
Receiver Decoder
Transmitter encoder
Source
Destination
Channel
Noise and Distortion
84
Basic Communication Concepts
  • Social Context
  • Personal, Impersonal, and Anonymous Communication
  • Time, Place, and Direction of Communication

85
Social Context
  • The situation and relationships within which
    communication takes place.
  • Social presence (perceives as a personal
    interaction)
  • Organizational position
  • Relationships
  • Cultural Norms
  • Age
  • Gender
  • The topic being discussed
  • Nonverbal communication
  • Media Richness Theory

86
Personal, Impersonal, and Anonymous Communication
  • Personal - the relationship between sender and
    receiver matters. It affects form and content.
  • Impersonal - The sender and receivers
    relationship does not matter. Both serve as
    agents of the organization.
  • Anonymous - The senders identity is hidden from
    the recipient.
  • IT can make communication more personal AND more
    impersonal.

87
Time, Place, and Direction of Communication
  • Synchronous - The sender and Receiver are
    available simultaneously
  • Asynchronous - The sender and receiver are not
    available simultaneously.
  • Place Involves Physical Presence
  • Direction One-way vs. Two Way communication.

88
Common Communications Classified By Time and
Place
Presentation Systems Copyboards PC
Projectors Facilitation Services Polling
Systems Group Decision Rooms
Transaction databases World Wide Web Shared
Files Electronic Mail Voice Mail Shift Work
Communications
SAME PLACE
EDI Transaction databases Electronic
Mail Computer Conferencing Voice
Mail Fax Pre-recorded Radio/TV
DIFFERENT PLACE
Typical Telephone Video Telephone Video
Conferencing Live Radio TV Broadcast
SAME TIME
DIFFERENT TIME
89
What are some approaches for Information Systems
to improve communications?
90
Approaches for Improving Communication
  1. Permit communication that could not take place
    otherwise.
  2. Make communication situations more effective.
  3. Eliminate Unnecessary Person to Person
    Communication
  4. Make Communications more systematic
  5. Combine and Extend Electronic Communications

91
Permit Communications That Could not Take Place
Otherwise
92
Making Face to Face Communication More Effective
  • Presentation Technologies
  • Blackboard
  • Prepared Paper Handouts
  • Overhead projector or slide projector with color
    transparencies
  • Electronic Blackboard
  • Computer LCD Display panels
  • Computer for What-If Scenarios
  • Computer-controlled Multi-media
  • Computer controlled multi-media with interactive
    control.

93
Eliminate Unnecessary Person to Person
Communication
  • Substitute on-line Access to data
  • Example Supplier/Customer Relationships as
    discussed in Inter-organizational Information
    systems
  • ATM access
  • Automated Telephone Attendants
  • Danger of becoming too impersonal

94
Making Communication Systematic
  • Contrast communication between people vs.
    communication between machines.
  • The business Memo Header
  • To
  • From
  • Date
  • Re
  • Having structure reduces the effort required to
    figure out what the communication means.
  • Even with communication between groups of people,
    repetitive aspects of communication are
    systematized.

95
Combine and Extend Electronic Communication
Functions
  • Early communication technologies have been
    combined and extended to create more powerful
    communication technologies.
  • Example Telegraph, Telephone, Radio Broadcast
  • Consider how more modern technologies are being
    combined.
  • More convergence of computing and communications
    technologies.

96
Question How have the different degrees of
social presence in communication, or how have
time, place, and direction of communication
affected a situation in which you have been
involved?
97
Basic Decision-Making Concepts
  • Steps in a decision process
  • Problem finding
  • All too often resources are spent finding good
    solutions to the wrong problem!
  • Problem solving
  • Decision processes typically iterate between the
    various phases

98
Four-phase Decision Making Process Figure 3.15
99
  • Rationality vs. satisficing
  • Rationality a common model for explaining how
    people should make decisions
  • Rational people are expected to attempt to
    maximize their welfare
  • Satisficing how people actually behave when
    making a decision
  • Looking for a satisfactory alternative, rather
    than the optimal one bounded rationality

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Common flaws in decision making
  • (To Be Discussed Later)
  • Poor framing
  • Recency effects
  • Primacy effects
  • Poor probability estimation
  • Overconfidence
  • Escalation phenomena
  • Association bias
  • Groupthink

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  • Automating decisions
  • Have important advantages when
  • A great deal of information must be processed or
  • Small delays affect the outcome
  • Only acceptable when every aspect of the decision
    is fully understood
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