Revisiting the Limits to Growth Thesis Thirty Years Later

1
Revisiting the Limits to Growth Thesis Thirty
Years Later

• Presentation to
• Imperial College
• 11 November 2004
• Dennis Meadows
• LATAILLEDE_at_AOL.COM

2
Poster Created for the 1972 Smithsonian
Presentation
2000
3
Poster Created for the 1972 Smithsonian
Presentation
4
Our Conclusion in 1972
If the present growth trends in world
population, industrialization, pollution, food
production, and resource depletion continue
unchanged, the limits to (physical) growth on
this planet will be reached sometime within the
next one hundred years. The most probable result
will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable
decline in both population and industrial
capacity.
5
What Must Stop Growing?
Energy Materials Flow
Resources
Capital
Wastes
Flow f Population x Quality of Life x
   Flow of EM   
Person Quality of
Life
6
Causes of Growth in Population and Industry
7
Assumptions Inherent in Policies of the
Industrialized Nations

• It is ethically acceptable to use technology in
  altering mortality (except through abortions) but
  unacceptable to alter fertility.
• Rising wealth will lower fertility and thereby
  stabilize population at sustainable levels.
• Efforts to stimulate industrial growth are the
  best way to make the poor wealthier, and this
  requires globalization of the economy.
• The potential for indefinite technological
  advance makes unnecessary even on a finite planet
  any concern for limits on material or energy
  consumption.

8
Natural Resources
The earth's natural resources are finite, which
means that if we use them continuously, we will
eventually exhaust them. This basic observation
is undeniable. But another way of looking at the
issue is far more relevant for assessing social
welfare. Our exhaustible and unreproducible
natural resources, if measured in terms of their
prospective contribution to human welfare, can
actually increase year after year, perhaps never
coming anywhere near exhaustion. How can this be?
The answer lies in the fact that the effective
stocks of natural resources are continually
expanded by the same technological developments
that have fueled the extraordinary growth in
living standards since the industrial revolution.
William J. Baumol and Sue Anne Batey Blackman
9
World Population
10
Population Growth
Population in Billions
Births Deaths per 1000 per Year
Year
11
Total Population Added
Millions of People Added per Year
Year
12
Industrial Production
Year
13
CO2 Concentration
14
Index of World Metals Use
15
The Physical Limits to Growth
Energy Materials Flow
Resources
Capital
Wastes
16
Waste Fraction
17
Cost of Emission Reductions
18
Capital Flows
Manufactured Consumer Goods
Material Standard
Resource Capital
Resources Energy
Industrial Capital
Output
Agricultural Capital
Food Fiber

Service Capital
Health Education
Investment in Industry
19
2004 Projection for 1900 - 2100
Pollution
Population
Industrial Output
Food
Resources
20
Our Conclusion in 2004
Since 1972 there have not been any significant
changes in the policies that drive growth in
population and industrial production. Now the
use of resources and generation of pollution are
above sustainable levels. In 1972 the challenge
was to slow down now the challenge is to get
back down. Decline is still the most probable
future, and now it is much more likely - but not
inevitable. But thirty years have been lost, and
the period of declining growth - chosen by us or
enforced by the planet - is thus much closer.
21
Does This Seem Reasonable?
The 1970 World3 projections for 2000 were
accurate. Now the book comes with a CD you can
use to examine our scenarios. But proof does not
lie in the model confidence must come from
observing the real system and actual events.
Recent scientific studies, and the headlines in
the daily newspaper provide more and more support
for our original conclusions.
22
Some Indicators of Overshoot

• Deterioration in renewable resources - surface
  and ground water, forests, fisheries,
  agricultural land.
• Rising levels of pollution.
• Growing demands for capital, resources, and labor
  by military and industry to secure, process, and
  defend resources.
• Investment in human resources (education,
  shelter, health care) postponed in order to
  provide immediate consumption and security
  demands.
• Rising debt eroding goals for health and
  environment.
• Growing instability in natural ecosystems.
• Growing gap between rich and poor - between the
  powerful and the weak. Meadows, et. al. pp
  176-177.

23
One Index of Overshoot - the Global Ecological
Footprint
Number of Earths Required
Year
24
Scientists Overshoot
Human beings and the natural world are on a
collision course. Human activities inflict harsh
and often irreversible damage on the environment
and on critical resources. If not checked, many
of our current practices put at serious risk the
future that we wish for human society and the
plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the
living world that it will be unable to sustain
life in the manner that we know. Fundamental
changes are urgent if we are to avoid the
collision our present course will bring about.
World Scientists Warning to Humanity signed by
more than 1,600 scientists, including 102 Nobel
laureates, from 70 countries, 1992.
25
Insurance Firms Overshoot
26
National Development Overshoot
Fifty-four nations, 30 percent of the 178
countries for which data were available in
2003, experienced negative average annual
percent growth in their per capita gross
domestic product for more than a decade during
the period from 1990 to 2001.
27
Skeptics Overshoot
Twenty years ago some spoke of limits to growth.
But today we now know that growth is the engine
of change. Growth is the friend of the
environment. President George Bush, 1992 This is
my long-term forecast in brief The material
conditions in life will continue to get better
for most people in most countries, most of the
time, indefinitely. Julian Simon, 1997 In 1972,
the Club of Rome published Limits to Growth
questioning the sustainability of economic and
population growth. None of these developments
has even begun to occur.. So the Club of Rome was
wrong. ExxonMobile in WSJ, 2002 If Europes
economies do not succeed in returning to the path
of growth, these (many negative) consequences
will even be exacerbated. Alpbach Forum,
September 2004
28
Scarcity and Growth - 1963
There is, however, another indicator of the
scarcity of a resource that is more reliable its
price. If the demand for a resource is not
falling, and if its price is not distorted by
interferences such as government intervention or
international cartels, then the resource's price
will rise as its remaining quantity declines. So
any price rises can be interpreted as a signal
that the resource is getting scarcer. One group
of researchers (Barnett and Morse) found that the
real cost (price) of extraction for a sample of
thirteen minerals had declined for all but two
(lead and zinc) between 1870 and 1956. More
recently, Baumol et al. calculated the price of
fifteen resources for the period 1900 to 1986 and
showed that until the "energy crises" of the
seventies, there was a negligible upward trend in
the real (inflation-adjusted) prices of coal and
natural gas, and virtually no increase in the
price of crude oil.
29
US Oil Production Peaked in 1970
The US owns about 2 of the globes oil reserves,
pumps about 9 of the annual production, and
accounts for about 25 of the annual global
consumption. In September, 04 US monthly oil
production was the lowest in 55 years.
30
Global Oil Production will Probably Peak before
2020
Last year 8 billion invested in exploration by
major oil companies discovered reserves with a
present value of about 4 billion.
31
One Pattern for Sustainable Development
32
W3 Nonrenewable Resources Remaining in SD
Sustainable Development
Reference Scenario
Reductions in Use 2020 - 10 2040 - 50 2060
- 70 2100 - 85
33
W3 Persistent Pollution in SD
Reference Scenario
Sustainable Development
Reductions in Emissions 2020 - 10 2040 - 50
2060 - 75 2100 - 95
34
Examples of Technology Advance
Wind Energy
Production Cost
Photovoltaic Systems
Capital Cost
35
Our Thoughts in 2004 about SD

• Sustainable Development is no longer a useful
  organizing concept for understanding global
  policy priorities - now we need survivable
  development.
• This is going to be a century of declining flows
  if we are lucky, foresighted, and deliberate, it
  can be traversed without massive conflict and
  further damage to the globes natural systems.
• The technologies are available or can be quickly
  developed to get us back down below the long-term
  carrying capacity, if there is political will.
• Two key leverage points are drastic increases in
  energy efficiency and substitution of
  distributed, renewable resources for centralized
  fossil fuel facilities. These would lower
  greenhouse emissions, reduce the gap between rich
  and poor, force development of new governance
  philosophies, increase the resilience of the
  economy, and shift the foundations of military
  power.

36
The Challenge of Mans Future
Within a period of time which is very short
compared with the total span of human history,
supplies of fossil fuels will almost certainly be
exhausted. This loss will make man completely
dependent upon waterpower, atomic energy, and
solar energy for driving his machines. There are
no fundamental physical laws which prevent such a
transition, and it is quite possible that society
will be able to make the change smoothly. But it
is a transition that will happen only once during
the lifetime of the human species. .. if machine
civilization should, because of some catastrophe,
stop functioning, it will probably never again
come into existence. Harrison Brown, 1954, p.222
37
What Can we Do?

• Gather and publish data on the true, full costs
  of expanding population and economy.
• Pass laws and implement administrative measures
  that promote total welfare for those who are
  here. Experiment, eg. local currencies.
• Tax material and energy use and use the proceeds
  to promote drastic efficiency improvements,
  recycling technologies, and renewable energy
  sources.
• Measure and reduce waste flows - eg. eco
  industrial parks. Set goals for equity.
• Create a non-partisan council responsible for
  determining and announcing the long-term
  consequences of current actions.
• Help citizens acquire new perspectives. Tools
  lt-gt Action
• Join the community of cities against climate
  change.

38
(No Transcript)
39
Traditional Concern was Resources
As more and more areas become industrialized, and
as the population of the earth increase still
further, ever increasing demands will be placed
upon mineral resources. All high-grade ores will
eventually disappear, and man will be forced to
extract the raw materials for his industry from
the leanest of substances.. He need not be
deprived of the elements from which he fabricates
his tools and possesses But as time goes by,
everything he does will be more costly in terms
of energy, and human affairs will necessarily
become more highly organized in order to carry
out the increasingly complex tasks. The
Challenge of Mans Future, Harrison Brown, 1954,
pp. 216-219
40
Reserve Lifetimes in Limits to Growth
Table 4 Nonrenewable Resources - Petroleum Known
Global Reserves 455 x 109 bbls (US Bureau of
Mines) Static Index 31 years Static Index with 5
Times Known Reserves 155 Average Projected
Annual Growth Rate () 3.9 Exponential Index 20
years Exponential Index with 5 Times Known
Reserves 50 Limits to Growth, p. 58 Of course
the actual nonrenewable resource availability in
the next few decades will be determined by
factors much more complicated than can be
expressed by either index. p. 63