Security Dynamics in South Asia

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Security Dynamics in South Asia

• Taj Hashmi
• Professor, Security Studies
• Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies
• Honolulu, HI 96815
• Email hashmit_at_apcss.org

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South Asia Political Geography
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Geographical Diversity
Country Population (million) Size (sq km)
Afghanistan 27.1 million (UN, 2007) 647,500 (slightly smaller than Texas)
Bangladesh 153,546,901 (July 2008 est.) 144,000 (slightly smaller then Iowa)
Bhutan 682,321 (2005 est.) 47,000 (About one half of the size of Indiana)
India 1,147,995,898 (July 2008 est.) 3,287,590 (lightly more than one-third the size of the US )
Maldives 379,174 (July 2008 est.) 300 (about 1.7 times the size of Washington, D.C.)
Nepal 29,519,114 (July 2008 est.) 147,181 (slightly larger than Arkansas)
Pakistan 167,762,040 (July 2008 est.) 803,940 (Slightly less than twice the size of CA)
Sri Lanka 21,128,773 65,610 (slightly larger than West VA)
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South Asias biggest threat comes from within

• South Asian Subcontinent from Afghanistan to
  Bangladesh home to more than 1.5 billion
  ethno-religiously and linguistically diverse
  people
• Around 50 illiterate, 40 living below the
  Poverty Line
• Home to Authoritarian regimes and Flawed
  Democracy
• South Asia struggling with itself, countries fear
  most their own neighbors

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Postcolonial Syndrome Lack of mutual trust,
respect accountability

• Understanding of Postcolonialism essential Bad
  governance, poverty and corruption the chicken
  and egg story Unaccountability, a colonial
  legacy
• Ethno-national insurgencies, separatism,
  terrorism, narco-terrorism, religious extremism,
  Maoism are by-products of bad governance
• Ethnic (racial) religious divide acute
  regionalism Hindu-Muslim, Punjabi-Bengali,
  Southern-Northern, eastern-Western
• Uneven distribution of wealth opportunities
  Water food scarcity uneven growth
  development due to prejudice, neglect and
  artificial states / regions

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South Asias Security Threats Interstate
Intrastate

• Interstate Conflicts India vs. Pakistan
  Kashmir, the mother of all Indo-Pakistan
  conflicts, the Legacy of the Partition of 1947,
  or problems of artificial statehood
• India vs. Bangladesh , India vs. Nepal. India vs.
  Sri Lanka and Pakistan vs. Afghanistan
• Intrastate Conflicts Hindu vs. Muslim, Northeast
  India vs. New Delhi, Northwest vs. North India
  Advanced vs. Backward
• NWFP-FATA and Baluchistan and Sind Punjabis vs.
  Others, Sindhis vs. Indian Muslim Immigrants in
  Pakistan East Pakistan vs. West Pakistan led to
  Bangladesh (1971)
• Tamil vs. Sinhalese in Sri Lanka led to
  26-year-long civil war

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South Asias Transnational Security Threats (I)

• Non-State Actors Game Transnational crime,
  insurgencies, terrorism, narco-terrorism the
  biggest security challenges for South Asia
  Across Afghanistan-Pakistan-India-Bangladesh-Myanm
  ar
• Internal factors Marginalization of people,
  discrimination against ethno-national-religious-li
  nguistic groups Religious and Secular/communist
  insurgencies due to alienation of people
• Artificial states and problem of identity Common
  race, language, religion, sect, ideology unite
  people across the borders Kashmir, Afghanistan,
  NWFP/FATA, Baluchistan, Northeast India,
  Southeastern Bangladesh, Southwestern Myanmar
• By-products of proxy wars Bleed the enemy
  nation, often backfires, Kashmir, Baluchistan,
  NWFP, Assam, Southeast Bangladesh

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South Asias Transnational Security Threats (II)

• Narco-Islamist Terrorism Drug-mafia, warlord and
  Taliban-al-Qaeda nexus, Dawood Ibrahim,
  Lashkar-e-Taiyeba (LET) and Mumbai Massacre
  (November 2008)
• Exploitation of Ethno-National Religious
  Causes Kashmir, Pashtun Identity, Baluchistan,
  Refugee / Displaced / Marginalized peoples
  vulnerability exploited in the name of religion
  nationalism, Maoism is the latest threat in
  India, Bangladesh and Nepal
• Transnational Security Threats transcend national
  boundaries They go beyond South Asia Russia,
  Chechnya, Dagestan, Central Asia, Middle East,
  Xinjiang, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia and the
  Philippines
• HUJI, JMB, LeT, JeM, Afghan Taliban, Pakistani
  Taliban (TTP), Jemah Islamiya, MILF (Southeast
  Asia) Drug-Arms-Ideology

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India-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Myanmar Factors and
the Failing State Syndrome What is to be done?
(I)

• India having bad to very bad relations with all
  its neighbors India and Pakistans proxy war in
  Afghanistan
• Need to mend fences and resolve internal
  problems, including Kashmir
• Afghanistan going beyond control Drug not
  Taliban-al-Qaeda the biggest security threat
• Afghanistan needs good / accountable government
  Pashtun majority must get due share in government
• Afghanistans 750 million annul revenue
  paltry foreign aid inadequate against Taliban-al
  Qaeda-Drug-lords billions of dollars

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India-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Myanmar Factors and
the Failing State Syndrome What is to be done
(II)

• Pakistan must ensure equal opportunity to
  minorities and gradually de-Islamize the polity
  and must contain Dawood Ibrahim Group and
  Islamists ambitious generals
• Myanmar should stop persecuting Rohingya Muslim,
  Karen and other minorities -- China must be
  engaged to contain Myanmar
• Iran, Saudi Arabia must be engaged to contain
  Islamism
• Good governance must be ensured in South Asia,
  especially Afghanistan American War must
  become Everyones War beyond the NATO Human
  Security not Guns alone can ensure security