Title: Discussion of the Paper:
1Discussion of the PaperIDL, the International
Database on LongevityLiving to 100
SymposiumSociety of Actuaries
- Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.
-
- Center on Aging
- NORC and University of Chicago
- Chicago, Illinois, USA
2Disclaimer
- This discussion may be incomplete because the
discussed paper was received only at the Symposium
3Why Supercentenarian Studies are so Important?
- Extreme cases are particularly informative for
discriminating between competing theories - (Peter Kapitsa, physicist, Nobel prize winner)
- Extreme cases of longevity are particularly
informative for discriminating between competing
theories of aging and longevity
4Historical Note
- Early studies starting with Gompertz (1825)
himself suggested mortality deceleration and
leveling-off at advanced ages - Later studies by British researchers, Greenwood
and Irwin (1939) suggested that mortality force
becomes constant at extreme old ages
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6M. Greenwood, J. O. Irwin. BIOSTATISTICS OF
SENILITY
7Mortality at Advanced Ages
- Source Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. The
Biology of Life Span - A Quantitative Approach, NY Harwood Academic
Publisher, 1991
8Constant failure rate at extreme old ages was
also predicted by the reliability theory of aging
and longevity
- Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. The Biology of Life
Span A Quantitative Approach, NY Harwood
Academic Publisher, 1991 - Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S. The reliability
theory of aging and longevity. J. Theor. Biol.
213, 527-545, 2001.
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10Non-Gompertzian Mortality Kinetics of Four
Invertebrate Species
- Non-Gompertzian mortality kinetics of four
invertebrate species nematodes, Campanularia
flexuosa, rotifers and shrimp. - Source A. Economos. A
non-Gompertzian paradigm for mortality kinetics
of metazoan animals and failure kinetics of
manufactured products. AGE, 1979, 2 74-76.
11Non-Gompertzian Mortality Kinetics of Three
Rodent Species
- Non-Gompertzian mortality kinetics of three
rodent species guinea pigs, rats and mice. - Source A. Economos. A non-Gompertzian
paradigm for mortality kinetics of metazoan
animals and failure kinetics of manufactured
products. AGE, 1979, 2 74-76.
12Non-Gompertzian Mortality Kinetics of Three
Industrial Materials
- Non-Gompertzian mortality kinetics of three
industrial materials steel, industrial relays
and motor heat insulators. - Source A. Economos. A non-Gompertzian
paradigm for mortality kinetics of metazoan
animals and failure kinetics of manufactured
products. AGE, 1979, 2 74-76.
13Thus, the conclusion of the discussed paper
- Striking feature of these supercentenarian
survival curves is the seemingly exponential
decline in survival probabilities - fits well with the earlier studies and
theoretical predictions - (except that these earlier studies are not cited
in the discussed paper)
14Remaining questions and methodological concerns
- Where is the proof that the list of
supercentenarians is indeed complete or
age-ascertainment-bias free? - Where are the data themselves?
- There are no data in the announced
www.supercentenarians.org
15Specific question for discussion
- this supercentenarian list is assumed to be
age-ascertaintment-bias free (Kestenbaum and
Fergusson, 2002) - Questions for discussion
- Is this list really bias-free?
- How do we know that it is unbiased?