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Discussion of the Paper: IDL, the International Database on Longevity Living to 100 Symposium Society of Actuaries Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D. – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Discussion of the Paper:


1
Discussion of the PaperIDL, the International
Database on LongevityLiving to 100
SymposiumSociety of Actuaries
  • Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.
  • Center on Aging
  • NORC and University of Chicago
  • Chicago, Illinois, USA

2
Disclaimer
  • This discussion may be incomplete because the
    discussed paper was received only at the Symposium

3
Why Supercentenarian Studies are so Important?
  • Extreme cases are particularly informative for
    discriminating between competing theories
  • (Peter Kapitsa, physicist, Nobel prize winner)
  • Extreme cases of longevity are particularly
    informative for discriminating between competing
    theories of aging and longevity

4
Historical Note
  • Early studies starting with Gompertz (1825)
    himself suggested mortality deceleration and
    leveling-off at advanced ages
  • Later studies by British researchers, Greenwood
    and Irwin (1939) suggested that mortality force
    becomes constant at extreme old ages

5
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6
M. Greenwood, J. O. Irwin. BIOSTATISTICS OF
SENILITY
7
Mortality at Advanced Ages
  • Source Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. The
    Biology of Life Span
  • A Quantitative Approach, NY Harwood Academic
    Publisher, 1991

8
Constant failure rate at extreme old ages was
also predicted by the reliability theory of aging
and longevity
  • Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. The Biology of Life
    Span A Quantitative Approach, NY Harwood
    Academic Publisher, 1991
  • Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S. The reliability
    theory of aging and longevity. J. Theor. Biol.
    213, 527-545, 2001.

9
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10
Non-Gompertzian Mortality Kinetics of Four
Invertebrate Species
  • Non-Gompertzian mortality kinetics of four
    invertebrate species nematodes, Campanularia
    flexuosa, rotifers and shrimp.
  • Source A. Economos. A
    non-Gompertzian paradigm for mortality kinetics
    of metazoan animals and failure kinetics of
    manufactured products. AGE, 1979, 2 74-76.

11
Non-Gompertzian Mortality Kinetics of Three
Rodent Species
  • Non-Gompertzian mortality kinetics of three
    rodent species guinea pigs, rats and mice.
  • Source A. Economos. A non-Gompertzian
    paradigm for mortality kinetics of metazoan
    animals and failure kinetics of manufactured
    products. AGE, 1979, 2 74-76.

12
Non-Gompertzian Mortality Kinetics of Three
Industrial Materials
  • Non-Gompertzian mortality kinetics of three
    industrial materials steel, industrial relays
    and motor heat insulators.
  • Source A. Economos. A non-Gompertzian
    paradigm for mortality kinetics of metazoan
    animals and failure kinetics of manufactured
    products. AGE, 1979, 2 74-76.

13
Thus, the conclusion of the discussed paper
  • Striking feature of these supercentenarian
    survival curves is the seemingly exponential
    decline in survival probabilities
  • fits well with the earlier studies and
    theoretical predictions
  • (except that these earlier studies are not cited
    in the discussed paper)

14
Remaining questions and methodological concerns
  • Where is the proof that the list of
    supercentenarians is indeed complete or
    age-ascertainment-bias free?
  • Where are the data themselves?
  • There are no data in the announced
    www.supercentenarians.org

15
Specific question for discussion
  • this supercentenarian list is assumed to be
    age-ascertaintment-bias free (Kestenbaum and
    Fergusson, 2002)
  • Questions for discussion
  • Is this list really bias-free?
  • How do we know that it is unbiased?
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