Title: Convergence Trend?
1Convergence Trend? Ubiquitous Environment
2003. 2. 26
21. Convergence? Definition 2. Convergence? Impact
I. Introduction
II. Convergence ??
1. Technology Driver 2. Customer Driver 3.
Regulation Driver 4. Corporate Driver
III. Ubiquitous ??
1. ??? Ubiquitous ?? 2. ??? ?? 3. ???? ??
3I. Introduction
Convergence? Definition
Convergence? ???? ??? ???? ??? ???? ???, ???? ???
Ubiquitous ???? ???? ??? ??, ??, ???? ???? ????
???
Convergence ? Ubiquitous? ??? ??
Convergence? ?? ?? ???? ??
- convergence, gency knvdns(i) n. (pl. gences
cies) - 1 ?? ? ??? ??? ???(opp. divergence)
- 2 ???
- 3 ???? ??(??) ???? ?? ??, ?? ??
- ??(??), ??(??)
- ubiquitous jubikwts a.
- 1 ???? ??, ????(omnipresent) ...
- 2 ?? lt???gt ???? ??? ???? ... ly
- ad. ... ness n.
- Ubiquitous ??
- ??? ????? ?? ??? ??? ? ???? ??? ???? ??? ??? ?
??? ??? ?? ???? ??? ?? ???, ???? ??? ?? ??? ????
??? ??? - ??? ????? ???? ?? ???, ??? ??? ???? ?? ?? ?? ???
??? convergence? ???? ??? ???
??? convergence? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???.
???? ???? ? ? ?? ??? ??? ??? ?? ? ???.
Gerald M. Levin, ? AOL Time Warner
CEO Converge? ??? ????? ??? ?? ????.
Convergence? ?? ?? ??? ????, ??? ???? ???? ?????
??? ?? ??? ??? ???.
Thomas Ganswindt, Siemens President Sony?
??? ??? ???? ??? ? ?? ??? Converge?? ?? ? ???,
Audio/Video ??? ?? ???? ?? ??? ? ???.
Nobuyuki Idei,
Sony CEO
4Convergence? ? ??? ???? ?? ???? ???? ?????, ?? ??
??? ???? ??? ???
I. Introduction
Convergence? Impact
??? ?? ? ????
Convergence? ?? ??? ????
- ?? ?? ???? ????? ??? ???
- ???? ?? ? ???? ???? ??? ???
- ?? ? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???
- ?? ??? ?????? ??? ?? ? ?? ???? ???
- ?? ??? ????? ???? ??? ????? ???
??? ????? ??
Industry B
Industry A
Industry A
Industry C
5II. Convergence ??
Convergence Drivers
Convergence? ??, ??, ??, ??? ?? Driver(??)? ??
???? ????? ??? Paradigm? ????
Convergence? ??? ??? ??
Convergence? ??? ??? ??
- ??? convergence? ???? ??? ???(enabler)
- ??? convergence? ???? ??
- ??? convergence? ???, ??, ??? ?????? ?????
???(initiator)
- ??? convergence? ????? ??(market)
- ??? convergence? ???? ??(demand)
- ??? convergence? ???? ??? (evaluator)
Convergence? ??? ??? ??
Convergence? ??? ??? ??
- ??? convergence? ????? ???(trigger)
- ??? convergence? ???? ???(controller)
- ??? convergence? ?????? ?? ??? ??
- ??? ??? convergence? ????? ?? ?? ??
- ??? ??? convergence? ??? ???? ??? (steering
wheel) - ??? ??? convergence ?? ??? ??
6??? ????? ????? ???? ??? ????? ??? ??? ???,???
???, ??? ?? ? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???? ??? ????
II. Convergence ??
Technology Driver ????? ??
?? ????
??? ????? ??
FTTH
Gbit/s
??? ??
??? ???
?? LAN
?? 3G
Bandwidth
DSL
??? ??
Mobile Analogue/GSM
ISDN
????
Kbit/s
?? ???
Time
Trend continues
Trendends
Broadband Network
7??? ???? ?? ?? ????? ?? ??? ???? ? ??? ?? ?????
??? ????? ??? ???? ??? ??? ? ??
II. Convergence ??
Technology Driver ???? ????
??? ???? ? ??? ?? ???? ??
??? ??? ??
???
???
????
- ?? ??? ??
- ?? ??? ??
- ??? ?? ??? ??
- ????? ?? ??? ??
????
??
??
PC
??
??
PDA
??
??? ???? ?? ????
???
- ??, ??, ?? ? ??? ???
- ???
- ???
TV
??
??
???
- ????? ??? ?? ???? ?? ?? ????? ??? ????? ????? ???
- Converged content Converged network Converged
device - ????? ??? ???? ??? ????
- Newspaper content Internet network Cellphone
- TV content Broadband network PC
??? ??? ??
- ?? device ??? ???, ??? ???, CD-R, PVR ?
- ?? device MP3 ????, eBook Reader, HDTV, DVD ?
8II. Convergence ??
Technology Driver ???? ??
??? ??? ?? ???? ??? ??? ? ?? ???? ???? ???? ????
??? ??? ? ????
???? ?? ??
?? ???? ???
?? ?? ????
?? ????
Telematics??
Transportation Network
???? ???
VAD
?
Networking
? ????
Home Gateway
Home Server
9?? ??? ???? ?? ???? ?? ??? Convergence ???? ????
????
II. Convergence ??
Customer Driver ?? ??? ???
Convergence ??? ?????? ? ????1)
?? ??? ???
- ??? ??? ??, eBook? ?? convergence ???? ???? ??,
???? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???? ?????? ???? ??
- ???? ??
- ??? ??? ??? ???? ??? ???? ???? ?? ??, ?? ?? ??? ?
?? ????? ???? ??? ????? ?? ?? ??? ??? - ???/?? ?? Telematics, MP3 player ?
- ???? ??
- ??? ?? ? ??? ?? ??? ???? ???? ???? ?? ????? ????
?? ???, ???? ??? ?? ??? ??? ??? - ???/?? ?? HDTV, DVD ?
- ???? ??
- ????? ????? ???? ???? lifestyle? ????? ?? ????
customized?? ????? ??? ? ?? ???? ?? ?? ??? ??? - ???/?? ?? PIMS, PFM(Personal Financial
Management) ?
??? ??
???
91.6
??? ???
84.2
?? ?? ?? ???
73.3
?? ??? ?? ??? ?? ???
72.3
eBook
??? ???
88.2
??, ???, ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
85.6
?? ?? ?? ??
81.5
?? ??? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
65.8
?1) ????, N500, ??, 2001 ??, Hase/Schannen
Research Associates Inc.
10???? ???? ??? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? Convergence
???? ??? ???? ????? ???? ?
II. Convergence ??
Customer Driver ?? ???? ??
??? ?? ??? ??
?? ? ???
- TV, Radio ?? ?? ? 10? ??? ????? ?? 2530?? ???
??, PC, ???? ?? 10 ???? 10? ?? ???
- ??, ?? ? ???? ?? ?? ?? ??? ???? ?? ? ????? ?? ??
???? ???? ?? - ???? ????? ??? ???? ??? ???? ???? ?? ??? ??? ??
??? ?? - ????? ?? ? ????? ?? ??? ??? ?? ?? ??? ??? ????
???? ?? ???? - ??? ?? ??? ??? ????? convergence???? ??? ???
?????, ????? ?? ??? ???? ?
?? ???? ?? ??
?? Press Search,
11?? ? ?? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ?? ??? ? Convergence
???? ?? ??? ???? ??
II. Convergence ??
Customer Driver ?? ??? ???
????? ??? ???
?? ??? ???? ??
- ?? ????? ??? 121? CAGR? ??? 2006??? 84? ??? ???
??? ??? ??? - ?? 2.5G ??? ??? ?? ??? ???? ?? ???? ??? ??
- 3G? ???? ??? ??? ?? ?? ????? ??? ?? ??? ? ??? ???
- ??? ?? 19992002 CAGR 74
- 2002? ?? ??? ??? ?? ?? ?? 20022006 CAGR 7
- 2006??? ? ??? 781)? ???? ???? ???? ????? ??? ???
????? ?? ?? ??
?? ??? ??? ? ?? ?? (??)
?? 10? USD
CAGR 7
37,900
36,400
34,000
31,400
26,300
CAGR 121
CAGR 74
24,400
19,040
10,860
3,103
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
?1) ????? ? 4,840?? ?? Accenture, MIC, KISDI,
???
?? Accenture, Ovum
12??? ??? ????? ???? ??? ??? convergence? ????
II. Convergence ??
Regulation Driver ?? ?? ? ??? ?? ??
?? ??
??? ??
- ????? ??
- ??, ?? ? ?? ???? ?? ???? ?? ??? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??
?? - ????? ??
- ?? ??? ?? ??? ?? ???? ??? ?? ???? ???? ?? ??
- ????? ??
- ?? ?? ??? ?? ??? ?? ???? ??? ? ??? ??? ?? ??? ??
?? - ?? ??? ?? ?? ??
- ??, ?????, ???????? MA ?? ??? ?? ??
- ??? ???? ??? ??
- ??? ????? ???
- ??? ??? ??? ?? ?? ??
- ??/?? ?? ??
- ???? ????? ??? ??
- ???, SW, IT ??? ???? ??? ?? ??? ?? ?? ??
- ??? ?? ?? ??? ?? ??
- ??? ?? ?? ??
- ??? ?? ?? ??
- ?????? ?? ? ??? ??? ???/??? ??
- ??????? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??
Cyber Korea 21 (19982002)
??? ?????????
e-Korea Vision 2006 (20022006)
13?? ??????? ?? ??? ?? ?? ?? ?????? ??? ??? ?? ? ??
?? ????? ????
II. Convergence ??
Corporate Driver ?? ?? ? ?? ??
Online ?? ?? ??
?? ??????? ??
- Amazon? Barnes Noble
- Amazon.com? Barnes Noble? ??? ???? ?? ?? ???
e-commerce?? ??? ??? ?? - ?? Barnes Noble? online book retailing ???
??????, ? ??? ?????? ?? ?? ?? ??? ??????
convergence? ??/?? - Amazon.com? Barnes Noble? ?? (1998? ??)
- ?????? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??????? ?? ??? ?? ? ??????
????? ???? ? - ?? ?????? ?(?)??? ?? ??? ??? ? ???? convergence?
????? ?
Industry X
Industry Y
Company A
?? Business Week
14Convergence ???? ???? ?? ??? ????? ??? ??
Alliance ??? ???? ?? ?? ?? ???? ????? ???
II. Convergence ??
Corporate Driver ??? Alliance
Alliance? ???
mCommerce ???? ??? ?? ?? ? ?? ??
- ??? ???? ?? ? ??? ?? ? ??? ?? ??, ???, ?? ??, ??
? - ??? ?? RD ??? ??
- ???? ??? ??
???
- ?? ???? ??????? ???? ???
- ???? ??? ?? ? MA? ?? ???? ??? ???
15??? ???? ?? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?? ?? ??? ???? ?? ??
??? ????? ?? ??? ??? ???
II. Convergence ??
Corporate Driver ??? ?? ??? ?? ? ??? ?? ??
?? ?? ?? ?? ??
??? ?? Convergence ???? ??
- CATV ???? ??? ????? ???? ??? ?? ???? ??
- ?? ???? ???? ??, ?? ? ? ?? ??? ??
- ?? Program? ??? ??
- ??? ??? ?? ??? ??? ???? ?? ??? ????? ??? ????
- Convergence? ? ?????? ??? ?? ??? ????? ???
- ??? convergence? ?? ???? ????? ???? ??? ??? ???? ?
Industry Y
Second Curve
Revenue
Industry X
Converged Industry A
Industry A
- ??/??/ ????
- Know-how/ ??/????
- ???
- ??/?? process
- ????
- ????
Time
16Convergence? ???, ???, ??????? ????? ??????? ????
??, ??? ????? ??? ?? ????? ubiquitous? ??? ???
??? ??
III. Ubiquitous ??
??? Ubiquitous ??
?? ??? ??
- ??, ???? Convergence trend? pattern ??
- ??, ???? ??? trend? pattern ??? convergence?
??? ?? ?? ???? timing? ??
ICT Information Communications Technology
3C Content, Computing, Communication
17Ubiquitous ????? ??? ?? ??? ???? ????? ???? ???
???
III. Ubiquitous ??
??? ??
??? ?? ?? (Active Knowledge Management) ??
Interface???? ?? ??? ?? ?? ??? ????? ???
??? ?? ?? (Personal Awareness Assistant) PC,
???, ????, ???? ?? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???
??? ?? ??? (Autonomous Purchasing Object) ?????
????? ?? ??? ?? ???
??? ?? ?? ?? (Mobile Decision Support) ??? ???
?? ??, ??? ? ???? ?? ???
?? ?? ??? (Location Based Services) ???
Interface?? ???? ???????
?? ?? ?? ??? (Virtual Collaborative
Design) ?????? Face-to-face ?? ??? ??? ???
?? ?? ?? ?? (Visual Location Awareness Tool) ???
????? ??? ?? ?? ???
?? ?? ?? (Knowledge Discovery Tool) ???? ???
????? ???? ??? ???? ???
??? ?? ??? (Shoppers Eye) ?? ??? ??? ???? ????
Promotion? ???? ??? ???
?? ???? (Augmented Reality) ?? ??? ??? ??? ???
??? ?? ?? ???
18??? ubiquitous ???? ?? ??? ????, ????, ???? ? ???
??? ?? ? ??? ???? ??? ???, ??? ???, ??? ?????
???? ???? ??? ? ?? ??? ??? ? ?? ??
III. Ubiquitous ??
???? ??
?? ??? ??? Matrix
- ?????
- ??? ?? ???
- ?? ?? ??
B2C
- ?? ??
- ?? ????, ??? ???
- ?? ????, ??? ???
- ??? ?????, ???? ???
- ?? ?? ??(Just In Time) ??
B2B
B2D
- ?? ?? ?? ???
- ?? ?? ?? ???
B2E
?? ??
B2D business to dealer B2E business to
employee