NAMAP2 poster for PSU CDW

1
NAMAP2 A multi-model assessment of North American
Monsoon simulations
David S. Gutzler (and NAMAP2 collaborators) Univer
sity of New Mexico gutzler_at_unm.edu
Pingping Xie and Wanqiu Wang NOAA/NCEP/Climate
Prediction Center pingping.xie_at_noaa.gov
wanqiu.wang_at_noaa.gov
Introduction NAMAP2 is a coordinated exercise in
global and regional atmospheric modeling of the
North American Monsoon System (NAMS). The summer
season of 2004 (during which the NAME 2004 field
campaign took place) is the simulation target. A
preliminary discussion among potential
participants to develop simulation protocols has
just been completed and runs will be carried out
over the next several months with analysis to
follow immediately. The NAMAP2 project timeline
is shown in the box to the right. The first NAME
Model Assessment Project (NAMAP) was an attempt
to engage the modeling community in advance of
the NAME 2004 field campaign. NAMAP provided an
indication of the ability of numerical models to
simulate atmospheric variability across
southwestern North America during the summer
season. For NAMAP, numerical simulations of
atmospheric variability across southwestern North
America during a single summer (1990) were
carried out independently by six modeling groups.
The NAMAP analysis focused on the ability of the
models to simulate the observed seasonal and
(where observations permitted) diurnal cycles.
The results provided motivation for enhanced
observations in data-poor areas during the NAME
2004 Field Campaign and led to the formulation of
metrics to quantify model simulation quality and
improvement (CPC Atlas online 2004 Gutzler et
al. 2005, in press in BAMS). NAMAP2 will
re-examine the metrics proposed by NAMAP, extend
the NAMAP analysis to transient variability, and
exploit the extensive observational database
provided by NAME 2004 to analyze simulation
targets of special interest. A centralized
comparative analysis of model output will be
carried out at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center
once the simulations are complete, and we hope
that the simulations will be used by individual
modeling groups as Control Runs for their own
analysis purposes. Oceanic temperature data
and (for regional models) lateral boundary
conditions will be specified. The first phase of
NAMAP, and other studies of the North American
Monsoon, have indicated the sensitivity of the
results to proper specification of SSTs in the
Gulf of California. Motivated by this need, a new
SST analysis has been developed for NAMAP2, as
described in the lower right box. New
participants are welcomed! Online registration at
the NAMAP2 web page
NAMAP2 Protocols and Timeline (see NAMAP2 web
page for details)

Output Archiving Protocols (8 Sept 05 revision)
Simulation Timeline (22 June 2005 revision)
a) For spatial analysis Archive lat-lon fields
covering the NAMAP2 domain every 3 hours (8/day)
during the simulation period. Fields to archive
b) For high-resolution temporal analysis Archive
"MOLTS"-style time series (at least hourly in
time and full vertical resolution). We will
consider surface fluxes and profiles of
humidity, T, u, v, w, p, resolved and convective
precipitation, cloud fraction, radiation, and
turbulence at model grid points corresponding to
the following NAME sounding sites 
Participants have expressed tentative interest
in repeating the analysis for the 2005 season
Simulation Guidelines (22 June 2005 revision)
With the recent completion of the MPM SST
analysis for summer 2004 (below), we are ready
to begin the NAMAP2 simulations. Analysis of the
simulations will begin in several months.
NAMAP2-based publications will include full joint
authorship (as in NAMAP).
Please join us!
NAMAP2 will extend the descriptive analysis of
NAMAP with a process- oriented analysis of model
output at NAME 2004 sounding sites.
This component of the analysis is focused on
cloud and precipitation processes.
Results of NAMAP (see much more in the CPC
Atlas and BAMS paper)

NAMAP2 spatial analysis will focus on
uncertainties identified in NAMAP, with
additional emphasis on verification using
enhanced observations from the NAME 2004 field
campaign. Moisture transport and land surface
hydrology will be assessed in detail.
A new Multi-Platform-Merged (MPM) SST analysis
for NAME and NAMAP2 (Xie Wang) The first
phase of NAMAP, and other studies of the North
American Monsoon, have indicated the sensitivity
of the results to proper specification of SSTs in
the Gulf of California. Motivated by this need, a
new SST analysis has been developed for NAMAP2
and other NAME research. Resolution 0.25
in space, 3-hour in time Input data In
situ observations (buoys and ships) Domain
18030W, 30S60N (embedded within global OI
analysis) Satellites GOES, TMI, AMSR,
NOAA-16, NOAA17 Target Period 2001present
(summer 2004 completed) Fields merged via
Optimum Interpolation after Bias Correction

Six modeling groups (running 4 regional models
and 2 global models) carried out the simulations
of the 1990 warm season
NAMAP was initiated to provide benchmark
simulations of a representative warm season
across Tier 1, prior to the NAME 2004 field
campaign
Mean difference (K) between analyses and in situ
observations Jun 1-Aug 31, 2004
Mean differences (K) between analyses Jun 1-Aug
31, 2004
Time Series of 3-Hourly SST 109.875oW 26.125oN
Input SST fields Apr-May-Jun 2004
8/day clear sky
Seasonal progression of monthly precipitation in
the CORE and AZNM subdomains
Monthly-average diurnal cycle of precipitation in
the CORE and AZNM subdomains
? Both global models exhibit delays in monsoon
onset and peak precip ? Big discrepancies in
nocturnal precipitation as well as daytime
convective peak
2/day clear sky
2/day all sky
Monthly-average diurnal cycle of latent flux in
AZNM ? Huge range, poorly constrained by
observations. Similar results obtained for
sensible flux.
NAMAP-derived goals for model improvement
include Simulate observed monsoon onset within
a week Simulate monthly mean precipitation to
within 20 Simulate large scale surface fluxes
to within 20 Correctly simulate the diurnal
cycle of convective and nonconvective precip
These differences are currently being diagnosed,
but at first glance they seem quite consistent
with what we would expect from an improved
analysis ... as suggested by the small bias of
MPM relative to in situ data.
2/day clear sky
2/day all sky
All NAMAP output is freely available at
http//www.joss.ucar.edu/name/namap
For More Information contact Dave Gutzler
NAMAP CPC Atlas http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go
v/research_papers/ncep_cpc_atlas/11/index.html NAM
AP2 web page http//www.joss.ucar.edu/name/nama
p2