Scenarios to Assess System Integration of Large-Scale Wind Power in the Netherlands

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Scenarios to Assess System Integration of
Large-Scale Wind Power in the Netherlands
EWEC 2006
Bart C. Ummels and Eeke H.M. Mast
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Content

• Introduction
• Research Approach
• Power System Balancing in the Netherlands
• Technical Solutions
• Socio-Economic Aspects
• Scenarios
• Assessment of Technical Solutions
• Conclusions

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Introduction

• Onshore 1200 MW
• Offshore 108 MW in 2006, 228 MW in 2007
• 1.5 GW onshore 2010, 6 GW offshore 2020/2030
• Large-scale wind power, mostly offshore
• Wind power predictability and variability
• Power system balancing

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Introduction

• Technical solutions for balancing wind power
• Technical vs. optimal
• Optimal strategies depend on non-technical
  factors
• Socio-economic framework
• Scenarios

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Introduction

• Wind Power Plant
• Power control
• Opportunity loss

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Research Approach

• Investigate technical solutions
• Modelling surroundings in scenarios
• Internally consistent views of what the future
• might turn out to be (Porter, 1985)
• Several scenarios to capture uncertainty
• Test applicability of solutions in scenarios

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Power System Balancingin The Netherlands

• Programme Responsibility
• TSO and Programme Responsible Parties
• Every PRP makes arrangements separately
• Wind power prediction
• Imbalance costs
• Cost efficiency
• Portfolios are decisive

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Technical Solutions

• Improved wind power forecasting
• Only reduces balancing reserve margin
• Thermal generation unit management
• Wind power plant management
• Demand-side management
• Energy storage

Wind Power Plant
Generation Unit Management
Demand-Side Management
Energy Storage
Forecasting
Wind Power Plant
Generation Unit Management
Demand-Side Management
Energy Storage
Forecasting
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Content

• Introduction
• Research Approach
• Power System Balancing in the Netherlands
• Technical solutions
• Socio-Economic Aspects
• Scenarios
• Assessment of Technical Solutions
• Conclusions

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Socio-Economic Aspects

• Market design
• Program responsibility vs. prioritised production
• Governmental policy
• Significant changes 2000 2006
• Regulatory uncertainty
• EU C02 certificates system

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Socio-Economic Aspects

• Grid codes
• Connection requirements
• Partly determine technical capabilities
• Possibility of international grid codes

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Scenarios for Offshore Wind Power

• Assumptions
• 6 GW offshore wind power in NL
• Surroundings economical, technological
• Market design, governmental policy, grid codes
• Qualitative approach
• Test robustness with Wind Tunnel Testing

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Scenarios for Offshore Wind Power
Environmental Concern
High
SOVEREIGN GREEN
INTERNATIONAL CONCERN
INTERNATIONAL CONCERN
International Cooperation
Low
High
FREE TRADE
DISENGAGEMENT
Low
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Assessment of Technical SolutionsExample Wind
Power Plant in International Concern
Environmental Concern
International Cooperation

GreenPolicy



GreenTechnology
Electricity Trade


Installed Wind Power
-

Forecasting
Wind Power Plant
Generation Unit Management
Demand-Side Management
Energy Storage
The Netherlands
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Results
Scenarios Solution Intern. Concern Sovereign Green Disen-gagement Free Trade
Forecasting
Generation unit management 0 0
Wind power plant management 0 0 0
Demand-side management 0 -
Energy storage - 0 -

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Conclusions

• Technical solutions for power system balancing
• Market design, grid codes, governmental policy
• International cooperation and environmental
  concern
• Importance of wind power forecasting and
  generation unit management
• Energy storage most attractive in Sovereign
  Green

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Thank you for your attention
Pictures and graph data made available
by www.freefoto.com Energinet.dk (formerly
Eltra, TSO of Western-Denmark)