A?:Long-term projection of global change

1
A?Long-term projection of global change using an
integrated earth system model (21???????????????)
??????
A.?????????? (??JAMSTEC) ??????? (??RIST)
??????????? (??CRIEPI) B.???????????????????
(??JAMSTEC) C1.????????? (?????????) C2.??????
(??????) ---------------------------------------
------------- ????????? (?????JAMSTEC)
???????? (????JAMSTEC/CCSR)
2
A?01. Long-term projection of global changeusing
an integrated earth system model
lt?2?ESM??????gt ???????????????????(??????
?????????????) hybrid???????(??????????????) ????
?????? ??????????? ????? ? ??QBO ??????????? ????
???? ???????? ?????????(?????????aging ?) ??????
? ?????? ????????? ?????????????????????????????
??????????? ???????QBO??????????????
(??????????????????) ?????????????? ??????????????
????? ???????????????(??)
?2?ESM?????(300500????)??? ?????????? ???????
??????(????????)?? ?????????? 20????????????
3
Improvement of PBL parameterization ???????850hPa
???????
(?? MY ???)
0
4
Response of ice sheet model to global warming,
Improving the ice sheet model
?????

1. ?????????(shallow ice approx. ?????????)
2. ?????????????????????
3. ????????????????????????????????

???
???
5
Coupling of Chemistry Model and Aerosol Model
??????? ???????
???????? ????????
6
A?01. Long-term projection of global changeusing
an integrated earth system model
lt?2?ESM??????gt ???????????????????(??????
?????????????) hybrid???????(??????????????) ????
?????? ??????????? ????? ? ??QBO ??????????? ????
???? ???????? ?????????(?????????aging ?) ??????
? ?????? ????????? ?????????????????????????????
??????????? ???????QBO??????????????
(??????????????????) ?????????????? ??????????????
????? ???????????????(??)
?2?ESM?????(300500????)??? ?????????? ???????
??????(????????)?? ?????????? 20????????????
7
A?01 Schedule

• 19??

20??
21??
22??
23??
?????????? ????????
?????????????????
?????????
?????????
(1)??????????
??????????(T42-gtT63? ???????
????(T63-gtT106)???????
?????????
(2)????????
(3)20???????????????
????(???????????)
20????????????????
?????????
???????????????????????????
19??
20??
21??
22??
23??
?????????? ??????
???????????? ??????????
?????????????????
?????????
(1)???????
????????????
???????????????????
?????????
(2)???????????
???????????
8
ES resource

• ??????????(??20?10?)?
• ???????

?????????????????2?????? ???30?????????????????
?ES? 60??????????(???????????)
T42L80??????150???????/? ?????300????10??????45???
????????? H20??????????????????????
?????????????????
9
Coupler Development for Earth System
Modeling (??RIST)
?????
????????????????????????????(?????)???????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????????????????
10
Genetic coupler and evaluation of component models
????????
????????
????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????????????
?????????????????????????????????
?????
?
??
???
??
??
?????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
???????????????????????????????????
11
Outline of the project
????????????????????????(?????)???????????????????
?????????????????? ???? 1)????????????????????????
?????????????????????????????? 2)???????????????
?????????????????????????? 3)?????????????????????
?????????? ????????????????????????????
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
19?? 20?? 21?? 22?? 23??

???????
???????
???????????
???? ?????
12
Plan for FY2007
??19??????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????? ??????? 1)????????????????????????????
?????????????????????????????? 2)?????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
?????? ????????
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3

?????????
???????
13
Uncertainty estimation by Model intercomparison
(for carbon cycle) ??(CRIEPI)
????3??????? ???????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
???????????????????????????????????????????
14
Uncertainty estimation by Model intercomparison
(for carbon cycle) ??(CRIEPI)
????3??????? ???????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????? ??1??
?????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????? (??)



?????????????????????????(OCMIP???)??????????????
??CO2?????????????????????????????????????????????
???????? (??) ????????????????????????????3?????
???????2??????????????????????????????????????????
????????????CO2???????????????????????????????????
??????(OCMIP???)?????????????????????
15
Research Plan for FY2007

• ??????????????????????
• ???????????

????????
ocean carbon cycle
ocn
ice
marine ecosystem
????????
terrestrial carbon cycle
cpl
dynamic vegetation
wetland methane
atm
lnd
ice sheets
?????????
16

• Incorporation of Fe into the ocean ecosystem
  model
• ???????Fe????????????????????????????????
• ?????????(???????)
• ????
• ??
• CO2?????
• 2) ??????????????????????????

17
Model description ????? POP
??? ???100km? ??40?)
???? aniso-GM, aniso-Viscosity, KPP,

NSEF(near surface eddy flux )?? ????????
OCMIP (OCMIP????Fe???????????

????????????)
??? BEC
(Biogeochemistry/ecosystem/circulation)
????? ????????
??? POP OCMIP
POP BEC
???????? COCO NPDZ-type
18
Oceanic biogeochemistry

• CO2???????????

• ?????????
• ?????????????

??
(Takahashi et al., 2002)
??? ??? 300km
19
Uncertainty estimation using a hierarchy of models

• ??????????
• (?)????????
• ????????????????

20
Hierarchy of Earth System Models
?????
????
GCM???????
????
??????
21
Models used
GCM(MIROC)??????? ?K2???????????
?????????????????????????????????????? ?
MIROC-Lite , T21???????, ??
22
MIROC-Lite
??????GCM ?????????????????
?????????????????
??GCM
23
MIROC-Lite some outputs SST and SSS (annual mean)
24
??????????????
????
?????

ESM??????????????????????????????????????????????
???
25
Quasi-inversion of permissible CO2 emission
26
Uncertainty in the permissible CO2 emission
GCM?????????????????????CO2?????
Jones et al. (2006)
??????????????????????
?GCM????????? ????????????
Smith and Edmonds (2006)
27
Conceptual roadmap
GCM????
O(10) Ensembles
Histogram
????? ????
Combined PDF
O(100) Ensembles
PDF
28
Possible results of this project

• CO2????????CO2????????????????
• ?????????????????????????
• ??????????CO2????????
• ?
• ???????????????????????????
• IPCC AR5????

29
Plan for FY2007

• GCM?????????CO2??????????????
• ???????????????????
• ?????????????????????????

30
Impact assessment of natural disaster due to
climate change on the stability of crop supply
(?) ????????? ???? ???? ? ??
31
Background
?????????????????
????????????????? ????????????????????
?????????
????(???????????)
????????????????? ??????/?????????????????
??????????????????? ??????
32
Target

• ???????????????
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????

????????????????
33
Distribution of production areas and climate
change
??????????????
????????? (1992?)
?????? (1992?)
??? HP??
34
Model for estimating the impact of natural
disaster on food production
????????????????? ?????????
?
T??,S??,P??
?
?
?
?
?? Y (t/ha)
?
?
?
?
? ?? ? ?? ? ???
?
?
?
?
Year
35
Stress influence differs depending on the growth
phase
????
EVI
???
?????
DOY
?????????????? (?????)
??????????? (??GIS??????)
????????????? (?????????) ?????????????? (???????)
36
Estimation of production variability due to
climate variation
???????????????
???????????
??????????????????????????? ?????????????
???????????????????
37
Research Plan
19?? 20?? 21?? 22?? 23??

???????????????????
???????????????????,???????
?????
19??????,??????? ??????????????????? ???????
(???) ??????? (???) ????? ???????
(???,????) ??GIS??? (??????,????) ?????
(??,??,??)?? ??????? (??????)
38
Expected results

• ??????????????????,????????????,????????????,?????
  ??????,?????????????????????????????
• ????????,????????????????????????,IPCC?????????,??
  ???????????????,???????????.

39
21???????????????Global estimation of disaster
risk for coastal region in view of long-term
climate change

• 2007?5?23?
• ?????
• ???? ????

40
Objectives

• ???????????????????????
• ??????????????
• ???????????????????
• ???????
• ???????????????(???)
• ??????
• ????????,??????,????,???

41
Goals

• ?????1km????????????
• ????????????????.
• ????????????????
• ?????????,?????????
• ?????????.
• AR5,????????????????
• ??????
• ???????????????
• ?????????????
• ????????????????

42
Sub-theme 1 Submergence risk assessment
43
Sub-theme 2 Flood risk assessment
???????????????????? ???????????
A?,A????????,???????????????? (?????????????????)
? ?????????????????
44
Sub-theme 3 Impact on Asian mega-deltas
?????????????DB (???????????)
?????12 ????? ????? ????
???????
?????????? ???????
??????? ???? ??
??????????????????????
2030?2100?2300?
??????????????????
45
Roadmap
?? 1 2 3
??? ???????? ???? ?? ?????
2009(3??) ????????????? ?????????? ???????????(??,?????) ?????????????????? ???????????DB?? ???????????????? ?????????????
2011(5??) ???????????????????(??,?????) ????,????,????????(?????) ???????????? ????????,??????? 2030,2100,2300????????????????????????
46
Plan for FY2007

• ??(1)???????
• ???????
• ??(2)????????????
• ???????????????
• ??(3)????????????
• ?????DB???
• ????????

47
Carbon cycle feedback
????ESM??? ?????
48
Climate - carbon cycle feedback(FRCGC ESM)
???CO2??
Couple Uncoupled Implied ?T for Uncoupled
????
100????????????? ??????????
?????????CO2
49
Reproduction of atm. CO2 by ESM