Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence BRIEFING September 2002

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Centerof RailSafety-Critical Excellence
BRIEFINGSeptember 2002
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USA RAIL SAFETY BRIEFING AGENDA

• Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence
  Overview
• SEAS Interdisciplinary Collaboration
• International University Collaboration
• FRA Safety Rule Making Participation
• Performance-based Rail Safety Enforcement Rule
• Major Risk USA Assessment Projects
• Risk Assessment Tool Set Overview
• Proposed UVA China Collaboration

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Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence -
Overview

• MISSION Develop and maintain railroad
  performance-based safety enforcement standards,
  risk assessment methodologies and tool sets that
  support global rail industry safety enforcement.
• OBJECTIVES Provide a Monte Carlo risk assessment
  systems simulation methodology with web-based
  tool sets and education that is Federal Railroad
  Administration (FRA) and Association of American
  Railroads (AAR) compliant.
• STRATEGY Implement a UVA School of Engineering
  and Applied Science (SEAS) interdisciplinary Rail
  Center of Safety-Critical Excellence staffed with
  a permanent research staff, faculty from
  Electrical and Computer Engineering, Systems
  Information and Engineering, Civil Engineering,
  and Cognitive Psychology Laboratory. Establish
  global university - industry collaboration.
• EXPECTED RESULTS Global application of
  performance-based safety standards, risk
  assessment methodologies, validated verified
  tool sets and education.

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SEAS Interdisciplinary Collaboration

• Center is based on a SEAS interdisciplinary
  collaboration with the Association of American
  Railroads (AAR) and industry suppliers
• Electrical and Computer Engineering Department
• Monte Carlo systems approach to risk assessment
• Probabilistic advanced safety train control
• Systems Information and Engineering Department
• Historical data mining for validation
  verification
• Human-factors for probabilistic safety behavior
• Civil Engineering Department
• Guideway structures probabilistic behavior models
• Crash-worthiness / accident severity
• Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department
• Maglev levitation safety hazards and performance
• Cognitive Measurements Laboratory
• Probabilistic human-factors for safety
  measurements

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International University Collaboration

• Collaboration is underway with the following
  German technical universities
• Technical University of Braunschweig
• Technical University of Dresden

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FRA Safety Enforcement Rule Making

• Center has participated since 1997 in the
  preparation of the FRA performance-based safety
  standard rule making that includes the following
• Railroad Safety Program Plan
• Defines the Safety Plan process a railroad
  operator will follow
• Railroad Product Safety Plan
• Requires that a Product Safety Plan be written
  for each system that is deployed by the railroad
  operator
• Product Safety Plan must include
• Traffic Flow Density
• Human-factors
• Quantified Risk Assessment
• Extensive Safety-Critical Documentation
• Documentation Configuration Control Test Plan
• Operational Rule Book

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Performance-based Rail Safety Enforcement Rule

• Performance-based safety standards require the
  quantification of safety as a societal cost risk
  versus train miles traveled
• A Product Safety Plan is required for each system
  that is deployed by a railroad and the following
  quantification must be demonstrated
• Risk NEW ltlt Risk Old
• Train Miles Traveled
• High Degree of Confidence
• Compliance to Coverage for all Safety-Critical
  Devices

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Major Center USA Risk Assessment Projects

• CSX Communication-based Traffic Management
  (CBTM)
• 126 mile line
• Unit coal trains and other mixed mode traffic
• New York City Transit (NYCT) Communication-based
  Train Control (CBTC)
• 22 mile dual track line with crossovers
• High performance transit railway operations
• 60 second headways and 30 second train station
  dwell time
• Lockheed Martin Illinois Department of
  Transportation (IDOT) Positive Train Control
  (PTC)
• 126 mile line with mixed mode operations
• High speed passenger (110 MPH) trains and freight
• Maglev, Inc City of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
  Project
• 45 miles dual crossover guideway with 250 MPH
  planned speeds
• Passenger light freight operation
• FRA Web-based predictive risk assessment
  methodologies and tool set

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Risk Assessment Tool Set Overview

• PROOF-OF-SAFETY RISK VERSUS TRAIN MILES TRAVELED
• Subject to
• Traffic throughput density
• Basic principles of safety
• Assumptions
• Constraints
• Operational rule book compliance
• Track plan infrastructure track plan, guideway,
  bridges, crossings
• Train movement dynamics multi-dimensional model
• Signaling and control system multi-state
  probabilistic model
• Human-factors probabilistic model
• Train severity mishap model
• Proof-of-correctness (Hazard-free validation)
• Proof-of-safety risk (Non-hazard-free
  verification)
• Coverage compliance of all processor-based
  subsystems

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Axiomatic Safety-Critical Assessment Process
(ASCAP) Features

• ASCAP is FRA performance-based standard compliant
• Monte Carlo large-scale train-centric simulation
• Operates on a web-based parallel processing
  mini-super computer
• ASCAP structure is Unified Modeling Language
  compliant
• Calculates Events Passed at Danger based on a
  dynamic train movement model and probabilistic
  behavior of wayside devices and human-factors
  dispatchers, train crews and maintenance-of-way
  workers
• Events Passed at Danger are an automatic
  generation of fault trees
• Calculates mishap-pairs train-to-train
  collisions, etc. and crash-worthiness severity as
  societal cost based on history of accidents
  and/or real-time performance-based simulation

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SIGNIFICANT ASCAP MODELS

• Probabilistic device behavior
• Rule book compliance/non-compliance
• A.I. blackboard outcomes
• Human-factors safety behaviors and compliance
• Train dynamic movement model discrete
  continuous
• Accident severity societal cost
• Events passed at danger

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Event Passed at Danger (EPAD) Concept
S
CRASH
Train 2
Train 1
YARD A
YARD B

• Train 1 crew sees red signal as green proceeds
• Train 1 has generated an EPAD
• Simulation changes from discrete event to
  continuous
• Based on train crew behavior(s) the trains may
  stop
• Train 1 crew has violated the rule book compliance

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MISHAP CONCEPT
Continuous Simulation
Discrete Event Simulation
Train B should have taken the siding
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Decision Maker Risk Containment Region
Societal Cost
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ASCAP Tool SET
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Proposed China/USA Collaboration

• A China/USA university partnership is proposed
  that provides FRA compliant risk assessment for
  the major rail projects in China
• Duplicate a Center of Rail Safety-Critical
  Excellence in China for
• High Speed Rail
• Maglev
• Transit Railways
• Technology transfer of Federal Railroad
  Administration (FRA) risk assessment compliant
  methodologies, tool sets and education to China
• Technology transfer would take place with UVA
  implementing the risk assessment of a major China
  rail project with Chinese graduate students at
  UVA
• Methodologies and tool sets would be supported
  via the web as graduate students return to China
• Chinese university would have a seat on the UVA
  Advisory Board to provide technical direction
  oversight. Likewise, Chinese Center would have a
  technical Advisory Board with a UVA member