Israel

1
Israels National Security Doctrine
Limmud Conference
2
The Strategy of Strategic Surprise
Situational
Strategic
Irrelevant 'interpretive conceptual system' in
terms of understanding the individual relative to
his environment
An event in which information was lacking, the
information didnt arrive in time or wasnt
properly analyzed
In order to deal with these situations, one needs
to undergo fundamental learning / change ones
personal perception (Mindset)
3
The Process of Strategic Surprise
Change in priorities and values
Stage 4 Fundamental Learning
Strategic Surprise
Situational (Technical) response to Fundamental
(Adaptive) Problem
Stage 3 Denial
Strategic Surprise
Strategic Surprise
Difference that makes the difference
Stage 2 Incubation
Copying without translating
New trend in the neighborhood?
Stage 1 Relevancy
Relevancy Gap
4
The Israeli Context
Complex Challenges
Short, Unstable Tenures
Volatile Environment
Fragmentation of Knesset and Government
Need for Substantive Broad Long Term View
Incentive for Short Term Thinking
Address for Decision Makers
Model to Emulate
Training Future Strategists
5
Strategic Surprise in Israels National Security
Strategic Surprise
Stage 3 Denial
Strategic Surprise
Strategic Surprise
Stage 2 Incubation
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Stage 1 Relevancy
Relevancy Gap
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6
Israels National Security Mindset
Pol Dip Challenge
Legitimacy for Jewish homeland
London Conference
White Paper 1939
Facilitating Jewish Aliya
It doesnt matter what the goyim say. It matters
what the Jews do (Ben Gurion)
Organizing logic
Military vs. Security Activism
Ben Gurions Seminar
Partition Plan Arabs threaten to invade
Sec. Doctrine IL win war
Alliance with Superpower (France / US)
Alliance of Periphery
1947
2000
1933
1939
1960
1970
1980
1990
Time
7
Israels Traditional Security Doctrine
List of Threats
Main Working Assumptions
Conventional Army
Existential Threat Physical
Terror / Guerilla
Main Arena Military Security
Nuclear
IDF protect the nation
Decisive Victory Over enemy
Early Warning To prepare forces
Deterrence So enemy wont initiate war
Strategic Early Warning
Ambiguous Nuclear Policy
Closeness to Superpower
Large Army relative to population
Home-Front Role Secondary
Force planning Tanks and Planes
relevancy
Quick Decisive Victory
Striving for short wars
Keeping strong army w/o economic collapse
High quality intelligence agencies
Army responsible for home front
Special relations with USA
Taking war onto enemys territory
Controlling territory main leverage
1960
1970
1980
1990
Time
8
Updates to Israels Security Doctrine
The Dahiya Doctrine
Meridor Commission Defence
Low intensity conflict
Guiding Assumptions of Nat Sec unchanged
Arena Military
IDF responsible
9
Divergent Reality The Resistance Network
Base Middle East
Nasrallah We do not need tanks and planes
Israel is weaker than a spider web. (7/31/06)
Abu Mussa Marzouk failure of the political
process will bring about the destruction of
Israel (5/15/07)
Characteristics Islamist (Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah)
Main Strategy Undermine 2SS / Logic of
Implosion
Main Tactics Asymmetrical Warfare, overstretch
Synchronized VictoriesNeed strong foreign
affairs establishment
IDF responsible for protecting nation
New non conventional tactics required. Home
Front Diplomatic also essential
Main Arena Security Deterrence, Early Warning,
Decisive Victory
Resistance Network focuses on soft underbelly
asymmetric warfare, international arena and home
front
Existential Threat Military
10
Divergent Reality Strategic A-Symmetry
Hierarchical top-down structure Flat network based structure
Finality of claims / Peace Permanent Resistance
High intensity / Victory Low intensity / Attrition / Implosion
No civilian casualties Attack civilians / Human shields
IL Arabs domestic issue IL Arabs Strategic leverage
Battleground Military field Battleground Home front intl. arena
Control over PL Military Necessity Control over PL Strategic Asset
Authority with responsibility Authority w/o responsibility
11
Divergent Reality Delegitimization Network
Base Europe North America
Characteristics Red-Green Alliance, global
spread, focused around hubs catalysts
Main Strategy Promote 1SS / turn IL into pariah
state
Main Tactics BDS, lawfare, apartheid parallels
The key Blur difference between delegitimizers
critics
Red
Green
Essentialism
Liberalising the arguments
Liberal Elite From Kibbutz to Kibbush
Demonization IL apartheid
Coercion only way BDS
Double standards / singling out
Lawfare
12
The Feedback Loop
Flotilla planned for 16 months in countries
friendly to IL
Resistance Network
Delegitimization Network
Hamas drew upon Europe-based Muslim Brotherhood
network
Fundamental Delegit
Implosion threat
Undermine 2SS
Advance 1SS narrative
The Flotilla represents an evolved stage in the
two networks coordination
13
Crisis in Israels National Security
Attacks on Israel are nothing new
New dynamic new threat (advancing 1SS)
Israels position vis-à-vis Western Govts remains
stable
Increasing threat from Liberal Progressive Elite
Commitment to peace HR vital but there will
always be an outstanding issue (Shebaa Farms
Syndrome) Hasbara important but
delegitimization is ideology driven
Main Problem Hasbara / Policy
14
Creation of Existential Political Threat
De-Legitimacy
Demonization
3rd World Pact
Bottom Up Processes
Change in Balance of Power
US Asset to Liability?
Danger Turning Into Pariah State
Intl Inversion towards 2SS