Vision 2030

1

• Vision 2030 Water, sanitation and climate
  change Policy implications

Dr Guy Howard, DFID Dr Jamie Bartram, University
of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
2
Introduction

• Water and sanitation provision in the future must
  be resilient to climate change
• But
• What factors contribute to the vulnerability of
  WS technologies to climate change?
• What adaptations can be made to WS to increase
  resilience to climate change?
• What are the policy implications?

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DfID-WHO Vision 2030 study

• DFID and WHO jointly commissioned study into
  watsan technology resilience to climate change
• Decadal forecasts for rainfall 2020 and 2030 by
  Hadley Centre (average and heavy 5-day events)
• Review of technology resilience by Uni Surrey
• Forward projections of coverage (total, urban,
  rural, and by technology)

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Example map Annual average rainfall 2020
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Water supply and sanitation 2020

• Data collected for the 2008 JMP report
  disaggregated into individual improved
  technologies. Rural and urban coverage
  calculated
• Projections made to 2020 for rural and urban
  coverage.
• Projections for each technology normalised to
  ensure overall coverage did not exceed 100.
• Projections represented graphically.

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Water supply coverage 2020
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Sanitation coverage 2020
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Climate resilience of watsan technologies

• Three methods used to assess the resilience of
  technologies to climate change
• Literature review
• Interviews with WS experts
• Questionnaire survey
• Results expressed as a series of vulnerability
  matrices

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Potential impact of climate change on
sustainability of sanitation
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Potential impact of climate change on
sustainability of water supply
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Policy implications

• Utilities more resilient because of strong
  potential adaptive capacity
• Only small number of technologies likely to have
  global application in future others only
  regional or local
• - JMP criteria will need to change
• At-house water supply desirable but not
  necessarily through piped water

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Policy implications cont'd

• WSPs provide framework for supporting adaptation
• - Risk-based approach covering source to cup
• But will need to develop scenario-based planning
• Need improved water resources management to
  support resilience

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Resilience major findings

• All technologies have some potential resilience
• Actual resilience depends on local conditions and
  management
• Larger utility systems higher potential
  resilience than small towns and community
  management

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Resilience of water supply technologies
Technology Resilience Issues
Tubewells High Motorised pumping may pose challenge in drying environments
Dug wells Low Problems with water quality and securing year-round supply already problematic
Protected springs Low-medium Water quality threats from increased rainfall and reduced flow in drying environments
Household roof rainwater Low Reduced frequency but more intense rain and drying environments pose threats
Treatment processes Medium Processes are resilient, but management systems will determine actual resilience
Piped water Low High inherent vulnerability, impact can be reduced with effective management
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Resilience of sanitation technologies
Technology Resilience Issues
Pit latrines High Many adaptations possible, but flooding will represent a particular challenge
Septic tanks Low-medium Vulnerable to flooding and drying environments
Modified sewerage Medium Less vulnerable than conventional sewerage to reduced water quantity, but flooding a threat
Conventional sewerage Low-medium Risk from reduced water availability and flooding of combined sewers
Sewage treatment Low-medium Treatment requirements may increase as carrying capacity reduces
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Policy issuesCentralise or decentralise?

• Decentralisation will hedge drought and floods
  risks
• BUT, management decentralisation has poor record
  of sustainability
• More frequent flooding increases importance of
  avoiding critical points
• Need to (re-)consider greater centralised
  management support

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Higher service levels and climate change

• Post 2015 targets need greater ambition!
• At-house piped water supply
• Unclear how many such supplies be delivered via
  piped systems
• Are alternatives (self-supply) viable?

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Monitoring needs to change
Category Technologies/approach
Potentially resilience to all expected climate changes Utility piped water supply (including treatment systems) Tubewells Pit latrines Low-flush septic systems
Potentially resilience to most climate changes Protected springs Community-managed piped supplies High-volume septic systems Conventional and unconventional sewers
Potentially resilience to restricted climate changes Rainwater harvesting Dug wells
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Key Conclusions

• 1. Need climate-smart policy and planning
• 2. Need to translate potential resilience into
  actual resilience
• 3. Despite uncertainty, sufficient knowledge for
  policy and planning in most regions
• 4. Need to resolve key knowledge gaps
• 5. Adapting to climate change may provide
  opportunities to improve sector delivery

20

• Vision 2030 Water, sanitation and climate
  change Policy implications

Dr Guy Howard, DFID Dr Jamie Bartram, University
of North Carolina at Chapel Hill