Chapter 10: National Security

1
Chapter 10 National Security

• PS130 World Politics
• Michael R. Baysdell
• Saginaw Valley State University

2
Defense United States

• 19 of United States Federal Budget
• 1.4 Million active duty in 5 services
• 1.2 Million reserve
• Joint Chiefs of Staff report to President
• Volunteer Military with registration
• Between 1700 and 2200 nuclear warheads
• NATO Member
• Committed by Treaty to also defend Japan, South
  Korea, Australia, OAS

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Mandatory and Discretionary Spending

• Mandatory spending refers to money that lawmakers
  are required by law to spend on certain programs
  or to use for interest payments on the national
  debt. Includes Social Security, Income Security,
  Medicare, Debt Interest, Veterans benefits
• Discretionary spending is spending about which
  government planners can make choices. VERY
  small!! (Education, Employment, Social Services,
  Transportation, Justice, Environment

4
History of Defense Dept

• 1789 Department of the Army
• 1789 Department of the Navy
• Merged 1947, into Department of Defense under 1
  civilian secretary
• 2002 NorthCom created to partially overrule
  Posse Comitatus Act of 1878
• 2003 Department of Homeland Security
• 2006 National Missile Defense activated

5
Recent U.S. Military Deployments

• US has used force in history over 200 times, from
  small covert actions to World War II
• 1983 Grenada
• 1986 Libya (1981/86 shootdowns 86 attack after
  nightclub bombing, led to Pan-Am 103)
• 1989 Panama
• 1990-91 Persian Gulf War
• 1993 Somalia
• 1995 Bosnia
• 1999 Kosovo
• 2001 Afghanistan
• 2003 Iraq
• 2005 Liberia

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Current Issues in Defense

• Preemption strategy
• Iraq
• Drafthighly unlikely not favored by Pentagon
• New threat Terrorism

7
U.S. Membership in Organizations

• United Nations, 1945 (World Bank, IMF WHO, all UN
  organizations exc. ICC)
• Rio Treaty leads to OAS, 1947
• NATO, 1949
• ANZUS, 1951 (New Zealand inactive)
• SEATO now dead
• NAFTA w/Canada and Mexico

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War The Human Record

• War is as ancient as humanity
• Increase in frequency almost 1,000 wars during
  the last millennium
• 30 of all wars have occurred in last 200 years
• Severity also on the rise
• 75 of all war deaths have occurred since 1900
• Continued threat of nuclear war
• Lower percentage of countries involved in
  international conflict higher percentage of
  countries involved in civil conflicts
• Concept of a just war

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Just WarsSt. Augustine

• Just wars are usually defined as those which
  avenge injuries, when the nation or city against
  which warlike action is to be directed has
  neglected either to punish wrongs committed by
  its own citizens or to restore what has been
  unjustly taken by it.
• Further, that kind of war is undoubtedly just
  which God Himself ordains.
• Analysis of some recent conflicts

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What Causes War?

• Dissatisfied with status quo (Hitler and
  Versailles Treaty)
• Nationalism/Jingoism
• Self-defense
• Collective self-defense/Help a helpless 3rd party
• Perception of leaders (Galtieri, Hussein)
• Preemptory strikes more effective, self-defense
  implications (Bush 43 and Iraq)
• Religion
• Conquest (outlawed by UN Charter)
• Parityboth sides are evenly matched and think it
  would be possible to beat the other
• Preponderanceone side really believes it can
  clean the other sides clock
• Xenophobiafear of foreigners (unites citizens)
• No single root cause of war
• Each level of analysis sheds some light on the
  question of why we fight
• System-level
• State-level
• Individual-level

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What Promotes Peace?

• Interdependenceif you really need something from
  the other state, you cant risk war
• Alliancescollective security mechanisms make
  aggressors less likely to attack
• Communication (Prisoners Dilemma hampers)

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Prisoners dilemma

• Two prisoners are accused of a crime.
• If one confesses and the other does not, the one
  who confesses will be released immediately and
  the other will spend 20 years in prison.
• If neither confesses, each will be released.
• If both confess, they will each be jailed 5
  years.
• They cannot communicate with one another.
• Given that neither prisoner knows whether the
  other has confessed, it is in the self-interest
  of each to confess himself.
• Paradoxically, when each prisoner pursues his
  self-interest, both end up worse off than they
  would have been had they acted otherwise
• Demonstrates how many conflicts are caused by
  system-level factors, although all 3 levels of
  analysis offer insight into why war happens

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System-Level Causes of War

• Distribution of power
• Number of poles and their relative power
• Anarchical nature of the system
• Self-help system creates a tension-filled cycle
  of escalating arms -gt tensions -gt arms -gt
  tensions
• Economic factors
• Global patterns of production and use of natural
  resources
• Increasing gap between rich and poor
• Biosphere stress
• Limited resources, such as water or oil

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State-Level Causes of War

• Militarism
• Belief that the nature of modern politics has
  deep military roots
• Externalization of internal conflict
• Diversionary war When governments try to
  consolidate their power by fomenting tensions
  with other countries
• Type of country
• Nature of political structure (authoritarian
  versus democratic) and economic resources
• Political Culture
• Influence of the historical experiences and
  religious beliefs that construct the national
  identity

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Individual-Level Causes of War

• Human Characteristics
• Instinctual human behaviors, such as
  territoriality
• Human aggression stemming from stress, anxiety,
  or frustration
• Individual Leaders
• Importance of individual personalities
• Risk-taker or cautious conservative
• Influence of individual experiences and emotions

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Lessons from Byzantium

• Edward Luttwak, who says he has studied Byzantine
  documents and other writings for two decades,
  advises Americans to learn 7 lessons from
  Byzantium. They are
• 1. Avoid war by every possible means ... but
  always act as if war might start at anytime. ...
  Train intensively and be ready for battle at all
  times.
• 2. Gather intelligence on the enemy and his
  mentality, and monitor his actions continuously.
• 3. Campaign vigorously, both offensively and
  defensively, but avoid battles, especially
  large-scale battles.
• 4. Replace the battle of attrition and occupation
  of countries with maneuver warfare -- lightning
  strikes and offensive raids to disrupt enemies.
• 5. Strive to end wars successfully by recruiting
  allies to change the balance of power. Diplomacy
  is even more important during war than peace.
• 6. Subversion is the cheapest path to victory. So
  cheap, in fact, as compared with the risks and
  costs of battle that it must always be attempted.
  ... Remember Even religious fanatics can be
  bribed.
• 7. When diplomacy and subversion are not enough
  and fighting is unavoidable, use methods and
  tactics that exploit enemy weaknesses, avoid
  consuming combat forces, and patiently whittle
  down the enemy's strength."

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Effectiveness of Force Evaluating Its Success by
Utilitarian Standards

• Measurement
• Cost/benefit analysis
• What are the trade-offs?
• No objective way to measure the costs of loss of
  human life, human anguish, and economic
  destruction
• Goal attainment
• Were the goals rational and legitimate to begin
  with?

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Conditions for the Successful Use of Force

• Clearly defined, long-standing, and previously
  demonstrated commitment
• Strong commitments, publicly announced by leaders
• Military force used to counter other military
  force, not to control political events
• Force used early and decisively instead of
  through extended threatening and slow escalation
• Clearly established goals
• Secure domestic support for actions and goals
• Develop a plausible exit strategy to avoid
  endless entanglement
• Use overwhelming force, get in and get out
• Powell Doctrine (named after U.S. General Colin
  Powell during the run-up to the Persian Gulf War
  in 1990-91)
• Powell Doctrine asserted that all of these above
  conditions must be present to achieve military
  and political success when using armed forces
• Opponents of the Iraq War claim Bush
  administration failed to follow several
  principles of Powell Doctrine in launching war
  against Iraq in 2003 and the military occupation
  of the country through 2007.

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The Changing Nature of War

• Technology has increased killing power--Civil War
  Minie Ball and Ironclads changed war worldwide
• Nationalism has increased numbers and intensity
  of wars
• Technology and nationalism have expanded scope of
  war
• More expensive
• More diverse population now participates, suffers
• More civilian casualties
• Strategy has changed
• Power to defeat is the traditional goal
• Power to hurt increasingly important

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Classifying Warfare

• Offensive versus defensive
• Not always this simple
• Mutual-responsibility warfare (World War I
  mobilization)
• Description of World War I situation
• Where does preemptive war fit?
• Legitimacy of Bush Doctrine justifying preemptive
  war in Iraq in 2003 hotly debated
• Four categories of international conflict
• Terrorism
• Unconventional force
• Conventional force
• Weapons of mass destruction

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Terrorism

• No widely accepted definition of terrorism
• Terrorism is best understood as
• a form of political violence
• carried out by individuals, by NGOs, or by
  relatively small groups of covert government
  agents
• specifically targeting civilians
• using clandestine attack methods
• having the power to harm people and create fear
  by targeting civilians an damaging facilities,
  and systems involved in transportation, trade,
  and energy production.
• as an effort to influence domestic and global
  politics and the foreign policies of targeted
  nation

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Important Objections to This Understanding of
Terrorism

• Can noble ends justify terrorist means?
• In other words, is one mans terrorist another
  mans freedom fighter?
• Do the ends ever justify the means?
• How important is the intent?
• Can actions taken by uniformed military force be
  classified as terrorism?
• When are military actions not acceptable, under
  any circumstances?

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Sources of Terrorism

• State terrorism
• Carried out directly by an established
  government clandestine operators
• National governments and leaders are held
  responsible

• Transnational terrorism
• Carried out by international nongovernmental
  groups
• al Qaeda most famous example

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Terrorist Weapons and Tactics

• Conventional weapons of terrorism
• Many terrorist attacks still use guns and bombs
• 9/11 tactics fit this category
• Suicide car , truck, and body carrying bombs and
  explosives targeting public transportation
  systems and "soft targets" such as discotheques
• Radiological terrorism
• The use of nuclear weapons is unlikely, but the
  use of a dirty bomb or destroying a nuclear
  power plant are much more realistic
• Chemical and biological terrorism
• Need to be concerned Chemical weapons have been
  used before (Tokyo subway)
• Need to remain calm Increased awareness,
  vigilance, and security measures with this form
  of terrorism in recent years

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Causes of Terrorism

• System-level analysis
• Product of the global unequal distribution of
  wealth
• State-level analysis
• Result of national alliances that breed tension
• Individual-level of analysis
• Driven by human nature, by psychology, and by an
  individuals personal experiences

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Causes of Terrorism, continued

• Terrorism continues because it is effective and
  is often seen as the only option
• Important role of globalization and spreading
  technologywith both weapons and communications
• Seen as a low-risk, cost-effective, and
  potentially high-yield means of winning useful
  tactical objectives, such as massive publicity,
  freeing of political prisoners, and so on

27
Combating Terrorism

• Current emphasis is on diplomacy, intelligence
  gathering, national law enforcement, and military
  actions
• Not much focus on addressing the root causes of
  terrorism, such as poverty alleviation and
  economic development
• Major criticism of U.S. war on terror

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Unconventional Force

• Arms transfers Destination and sources
• Mostly to LDCs/Mostly from EDCs
• Can help LDCs meet defense needs and boost the
  economy of EDCs
• Arms transfers Drawbacks
• Cost
• Increased risk of regional violence and warfare,
  sparking a regional arms race among nations
• Maintaining authoritarian governments in power,
• Potential to face ones own weapons

29
Unconventional Force Special Operations

• Include overtly and covertly sending ones
  special operation forces (SOFs), intelligence
  operatives, or paramilitary agents
• Small-unit activities, such as commando
  operations and intelligence gathering
• Increased use of SOFs by U.S. government since
  9/11 including in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran
• Rumsfeld proposed loose rule sets for these
  trigger pullersprobably a smart call
• Risks possible escalation (Vietnam, Afghanistan)

30
Conventional Force

• Overt and coercive military intervention
• Norm throughout most of history
• Involves uniformed military personnel, usually in
  large numbers

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Conventional Force Goals and Conduct

• War is part of diplomacy, not a substitute for it
• War should be governed by political, not
  military, considerations
• War should be fought with clear political goals
• Avoid unchecked escalation

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The Dangers of EscalationStandards to Avoid
Unchecked Escalation

• Keep lines of communication open
• Limit goals
• Restrict geographic scope
• Observe target restrictions
• Limit weapons used

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Warfare with Weapons of Mass Destruction

• Term invented after 1937 German Condor Legion
  bombing of Guernica
• Includes nuclear, biological, and chemical
  weapons
• 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) bans all
  production, possession, and uses of biological
  weapons, but they still pose a serious threat
• Chemical weapons are the most prevalent because
  they are relatively easy and inexpensive to
  produce

34
Nuclear Weapons

• Although the number of nuclear weapons has
  declined since the end of the Cold War, a huge
  number of powerful nuclear weapons exist in
  numerous states
• Russia and the United States remain the nuclear
  Goliaths
• China, France, Great Britain, India, and Pakistan
  all openly possess nuclear weapons
• Iran, North Korea, and Israel have undeclared
  nuclear weapons
• Debate over ease of construction/Iranian
  capability

35
The Role of Nuclear Weapons

• Backdrop of power and influence
• Deterrence
• Actual useWhat are some possible paths?
• Irrational leader
• Calculated attack
• Last gasp nuclear war
• Inadvertent nuclear war
• Escalation
• Terrorist group obtains a nuclear device

36
Nuclear Deterrence, Non-proliferation and Strategy

• Three main issues
• How to minimize the chance of nuclear war?
• How to maximize the chance of survival if nuclear
  exchange does occur?
• How to persuade nuclear nations that are not
  signatories or not in compliance with the Nuclear
  Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to secure their
  nuclear materials and technologies from the grasp
  of terrorist organizations?

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Deterrence

• Persuading the enemy that attacking you is not
  worth the cost
• Capability and credibility are critical
• Mutual assured destruction (MAD)
• Deterrence through punishment
• Nuclear Utilization Theory (NUT)
• Deterrence through damage denial or limitation

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Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies

• Economic and humanitarian assistance to
  non-compliant nuclear nations and "rogue states"
  in exchange for these nations agreeing to
  dismantle their nuclear weapons programs and
  submit to international inspections of facilities
  by IAEA
• Provision of technical assistance to
  non-compliant or "rogue" nuclear nations to
  assist in dismantling and securing of nuclear
  weapons, material, and technology
• Diplomatic agreements to provide peaceful nuclear
  technology to these rogue nuclear nations in
  exchange for their agreement to halt and
  dismantle nuclear weapons programs

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Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies

• Imposition of economic sanctions against "rogue
  nuclear nations" that refuse to comply with the
  non-proliferation provisions of the NPT
• Removal of economic sanctions against nations
  that agree to give up their nuclear weapons
  programs
• Enhanced on-site inspections of nuclear weapons
  facilities by the IAEA
• Threats of possible military strikes against
  nuclear facilities of "rogue states"

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Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies

• All of the previously mentioned strategies in
  play as the U.S., EU, IAEA, and Russia negotiate
  with Iran over its nuclear weapons program
• All of the previously mentioned strategies under
  consideration or implemented as U.S., China,
  Russia, South Korea, and Japan negotiate with
  North Korea over the fate of its nuclear weapons
  program
• Combination of international diplomatic,
  economic, technological incentives and sanctions
  convinced Libya to abandon its nuclear weapons
  program in 2003

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Nuclear Strategy

• The first-use option
• Missile defense systemsIsrael, U.S.

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Chapter Objectives Checklist

• After reading this chapter, students should be
  able to
• 1. Identify reasons for studying war and
  summarize the human record of war, including the
  incidence, death toll, frequency, and severity.
• 2. Discuss the causes of war by applying the
  three levels of analysis system, state, and
  individual.
• 3. Discuss how the nature of war has changed as a
  result of nationalism, technology, and changes in
  strategies.
• 4. Be able to identify the different types of
  war.
• 5. Discuss the nature, limits, sources, and
  record of terrorism, as well as terrorist weapons
  and tactics, causes of terrorism, and combating
  terrorism.
• 6. Understand unconventional warfare, including
  the benefits and drawbacks of arms transfers and
  special operations.
• 7. Define and describe the goals and conduct of
  war, as well as ways to avoid unchecked
  escalation.
• 8. Analyze the role of biological, chemical, and
  nuclear weapons in warfare.
• 9. Discuss how a nuclear war may start.
• 10. Understand nuclear deterrence and nuclear
  strategy.