Challenge in Teaching Forecasting

1
Challenge in Teaching Forecasting
2
Forecasting Terminology
No Historical Data
Historical Data
Historical Data
ExPost Forecast
Forecast
Initialization
3
Goals for New Forecasting Material

• Have students to understand purposepredict
  future
• Have students to look at data to evaluate models
• Have students understand models by practicing
  forecasting on different sets of data

4
Method

• ABAP Program to create consumption data

5
Method

• ABAP Program creates 3 years of monthly
  consumption data with the following instructor
  options
• 3 trend values
• 12 seasonal factors
• Random variation
• Outlier point

6
Consumption Values
Normally, consumption values can only be entered
once, because the R/3 system updates them
automatically each time a sale is made
7
Forecasting Exercises

• A basic forecasting exercise is available now
  with a basic ABAP program that loads one set of
  data
• The flexible ABAP program is under development
• Designed for interactive lab or on-going
  forecasting practice
• Powerpoints, Excel Exercises, Practice problems
  and Sample exams will be included
• We should still teach formulas
• We should still teach how to program formulas in
  Excel
• But, with ERP Technology, we can have students
  MAKE forecasts