Diapositiva 1

1
Istat s experience in the KLEMS data set

• Antonella Baldassarini
• Massimiliano Iommi
• The First World KLEMS Conference
• Harvard University
• August 19-20, 2010

2
EU KLEMS experience general overview (1/2)

• Two Italian public institutions have been
  involved in the EU KLEMS project
• the Institute for Studies and Economic Analysis
  (ISAE) as official member of the Consortium
• the National Statistical Office (Istat) as
  subcontractor.
• ISAE is a public research Institute that conducts
  analyses, research projects and forecasts suited
  to economic and social policy decisions. 
• Istat is a public Institute that provides
  official information on social, economic and
  environmental conditions of the Country, in
  strict compliance with legal provisions on
  confidentiality.

Boston, 20 August 2010
3
EU KLEMS experience general overview (2/2)

• The database on growth accounts has been
  implemented by industry (Nace Rev. 1.1) with a
  breakdown into contributions from capital (K),
  labour (L), energy (E), materials (M) and service
  inputs (S) as follows
• Istat has provided official time series at 30 /
  60 industry level (Nace Rev.1.1) on basic
  variables
• ISAE has provided the breakdown requested (Nace
  60) by industry, the analytical module on labour
  input and the backward calculation of time series

Boston, 20 August 2010
4
Basic variables from Istat output and
intermediate inputs (1/2)

• Output measures
• Official National Accounts series (gross
  output and gross value added)
• Time period since 1970
• Intermediate inputs
• Supply and Use Tables at 60 industry/product
  level
• Use tables distinguished between imported and
  domestic tables at current and previous year
  prices
• Time period since 1992
• Since the revision of the ESA95 Transmission
  programme (November 2007), all EU countries are
  required to provide yearly SUTs at current and
  previous years prices. Output and intermediate
  inputs data needed for KLEMS database are now
  included in the standard data produced by
  European NSIs.

Boston, 20 August 2010
5
Basic variables from Istat output and
intermediate inputs (2/2)

• Further issue
• In Italy, SUTs are compiled as a fully
  integrated part of national accounts calculation
• SUTs are the main tool to balance the estimates
  from the expenditure approach and the production
  approach at the level of products
• SUTs are the compilation framework for constant
  price estimates too (but balancing supply and
  uses at the same time at current and constant
  prices is not implemented yet)

Boston, 20 August 2010
6
Basic variables from Istat GFCF (1/2)

• Gross fixed capital formation cross-classified
  by industry (30) and the following assets (9)
• machinery and equipment
• furniture
• hardware
• communication equipment
• software
• road transport equipment
• air, sea and rail transport equipment
• construction works (distinguished in dwellings
  and other buildings and structures)
• other intangibles and services
• Disaggregation by asset and by industry provided
  is higher than what is required by ESA95
  Transmission Program.

Boston, 20 August 2010
7
Basic variables from Istat GFCF (2/2)

• Further issue
• According the new assets classification
  (AN_F6), ICT assets and intangible assets can be
  identified
• Adoption of Nace Rev.2 requires a depth changing
  industry classification and it offers the
  opportunity to extend the industry detail of GFCF
  estimates but
• 1) resources needed to produce reliable
  estimates increase with the level of industry
  disaggregation required 2) the backward
  calculation of long time series to produce
  capital stock estimates using the PIM model seems
  difficult

Boston, 20 August 2010
8
Basic variables from Istat labour input (1/2)

• Labour Input measures
• Persons employed
• Time period since 1970
• Breakdown by industry
• - 101 industries since 1991
• - 32 industries before 1991
• Full-time equivalent units (as a proxy of hours
  worked)
• Time period since 1970
• Breakdown by industry
• - 101 industries since 1991
• - 32 industries before 1991
• Hours actually worked
• Time period since 1980
• Breakdown by industry
• - 60 industries
  since 1991
• - 32 industries
  before 1991

Boston, 20 August 2010
9
Basic variables from Istat labour input (2/2)

• Further issue
• Labour input measures (persons employed, jobs,
  full-time equivalent units and hours actually
  worked) are perfectly integrated within the
  national accounts framework. Data are consistent
• among them
• with output estimates
• with compensation of employees data

Boston, 20 August 2010
10
Basic variables from Istat labour compensation

• Compensation of employees
• Wages and salaries
• Time period since 1970
• Breakdown by industry
• - 101 industries since 1991
• - 32 industries before 1991
• Social contributions
• Time period since 1970
• Breakdown by industry
• - 101 industries since 1991
• - 32 industries before 1991

Boston, 20 August 2010
11
ISAE contribution to database release

• Providing all basic variables according to the
  EU KLEMS breakdown by industry (Nace 60)
• Hours worked for the period 1970-1979
• Labour input module with information on
• Persons employed and hours worked (detailed by
  gender, age, educational attainment) gathered by
  the Population Census for years 1971, 1981, 1991,
  2001
• Labour compensation (detailed by gender, age and
  educational attainment), obtained using the Bank
  of Italy survey on households income 1977-2004

Boston, 20 August 2010
12
Istat checking on KLEMS database capital input

• Gross fixed capital formation data are coherent
  with official data (as expected, differences are
  only registered for the price index of computing
  equipment)
• From a methodological point of view, Istat
  calculation on real fixed capital stock follows a
  different assumption respect to EU KLEMS
  calculations Istat uses a linear depreciation
  and bell shaped retirement distribution while EU
  KLEMS uses the geometric model. Relevant
  differences emerge in terms of growth rates
• Istat is going to develop specific studies on
  the average service life-depreciation rate by
  asset

Boston, 20 August 2010
13
Istat checking on KLEMS database labour input

• Istat calculates data on hours worked not
  detailed by type (gender, age, educational
  attainment). Istat is able now to provide the
  labour input in terms of persons employed and
  hours actually worked by industry and types
  (Source of data LFS on a continuous base since
  2004).
• In the next future, sources of data on labour
  input remuneration will be investigated, in
  particular the EU SILC Survey. The above survey
  focuses on income and detailed income components
  are collected mainly at personal level. In
  addition, information on labour, education,
  health, social exclusion and housing condition
  information is obtained.
• EU SILC is based on the idea of a common
  framework that is the harmonised lists of
  target primary (annual) and secondary (every four
  years or less frequently) variables to be
  transmitted to Eurostat common guidelines and
  procedures common concepts (household and
  income) and classifications aimed at maximising
  comparability of the information produced.

Boston, 20 August 2010
14
Open issues for the future releases (1/2)

• Consistency between KLEMS sources of growth
  analysis and NSIs estimates
• This issue will be very important, at least for
  EU countries, when Eurostat releases its own
  estimates for EU KLEMS. What will be the official
  data for countries that produce their own
  measures of productivity (e.g. Italy)?
• KLEMS coverage
• The EU KLEMS database is extended to the whole
  economy. Is this the best option? Some new in
  depth analysis on non market services according
  to the growth accounting theory should be
  promoted? What about owners occupied housing? In
  its productivity calculation, Istat excludes the
  activities of the General Government
  institutional sector, the letting of own
  property, the activity of private households with
  employed persons, the activity of the
  extra-territorial organizations and bodies)

Boston, 20 August 2010
15
Open issues for the future releases (2/2)

• The level of industry disaggregation
• There is an obvious trade-off between reliability
  and industry detail. How far should we be
  demanding with respect to the industry detail?
• Availability of time series data
• With the change from Nace Rev.1.1. to Nace Rev.2
  classification, the availability of official
  time-series for gross output and intermediate
  inputs according to a supply and use framework is
  not guaranteed before of the year 2008
• Capital input estimates
• For international comparability, it should be
  better to clarify well which measures of capital
  stock to calculate and for which purpose (capital
  as a provider of services in production or as a
  store of wealth)

Boston, 20 August 2010
16
What Istat has learnt by the EU KLEMS experience

• The KLEMS database is fundamental to guarantee
  the international comparability and to promote a
  different perspective analysis of the economic
  growth, in particular among NSIs
• Analysis of productivity, prices, industry
  structures, technology, innovation indicators and
  labour markets is of fundamental relevance,
  better if developed with the support of the NSIs
• EU KLEMS idea and experience should be used for
  realizing a new database according to common
  criteria, practical and methodological, well
  defined among NSIs
• In Europe, Eurostat seems to the best
  institution that can implement the KLEMS database

Boston, 20 August 2010