A Presentation by Henry Sokolski

1
The Next Arms Race

• A Presentation by Henry Sokolski
• Executive Director
• Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
• www.npolicy.org
• Alexander Hamilton Society
• George Mason University
• March 29, 2012

2
The Current Nuclear State of Play
3
Good News Declining US/Russian Nuclear
Deployments
4
The Hope Ahead 1,000 Warheads or Less on the
Road to Zero(World with 1,000 US operationally
deployed warheads)
5
The Arms Control Work Ahead

• Fissile Material Control Treaty (FMCT)
• Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)
• Additional New START agreements
• Sharing peaceful nuclear energy technology under
  proliferation controls

6
From U.S. Strategic Dominance to a Compressed
Nuclear Crowd
7
2011 PotentialNuclearBreak-out Stockpiles
8
From Two Nuclear-Capable Missile Countries to 27
1961
2011
9
Established Nuclear Power Programs
1961 3 countries
2011 31 countries
10
Our Proliferation Past and Present
11
Whats Next More Nuclear Powered States, Mostly
in Scary Places

• States Planning to Have Their First Nuclear Power
  Reactor by 2031

Countries shown in beige already have established
nuclear power programs
12
Yamantau Russias underground nuclear complex
13
Underground Great Wall in China
14
The Next Decade Nuclear Uncertainties and
Competitions
15
Our Proliferation Future?
16
Preventing the Worst

• Take more concerted action alone, with out allies
  and friends, and with Russia to clarify and
  constrain Chinas and other states offensive
  strategic military capabilities.
• Encourage nuclear supplier states to condition
  the further export of civilian nuclear plants
  upon the recipient forswearing making nuclear
  fuel and opening their nuclear facilities to the
  latest, most intrusive, international nuclear
  inspection procedures.
• Do more to reduce states access to surplus
  nuclear weapons and fissile material stockpiles
  that they could convert into bombs.

17
Sources

• SLIDE 6 FROM U.S. STRATEGIC DOMINANCE TO A
  COMPRESSED NUCLEAR CROWD
• Russia and the U.S.
• State Department Fact Sheet, June 1, 2011
• Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
• Hans M. Kristensen, Tac Nuke Numbers Confirmed?
  FAS Strategic Security Blog
• UK, France, India, Pakistan, China
• Pakistans Nuclear Future Worries Beyond War
  (Chapter 6 Fissile Materials in South Asia and
  the Implications of the U.S.-India Nuclear Deal
  by Mian et al.,)
• Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
• Arms Control Association
• SIPRI Yearbook 2011
• Federation of American Scientists
•  
• Israel
• Arms Control Association
• Fissile Material Stockpiles and Production, 2008,
  Alexander Glaser and Zia Mian

18
Sources Continued

• SLIDE 7 2011 POTENTIAL NUCLEAR BREAK-OUT
  STOCKPILES
• Global Fissile Material Report, 2011
• SLIDE 8 FROM TWO NUCLEAR-CAPABLE MISSILE
  COUNTRIES TO 27
• Arms Control Association, Worldwide Ballistic
  Missile Inventories available from
  http//www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/missiles.
• SLIDE 11 THE NEXT DECADE NUCLEAR UNCERTAINTIES
  AND COMPETITIONS
• China
• William Wan, Georgetown Students Shed Light on
  Chinas Underground Missile System for Nuclear
  Weapons, The Washington Post, November 29, 2011
• Hans Kristensen, No, China Does Not Have 3,000
  Nuclear Weapons, FAS Strategic Security Blog,
  December 3, 2011, http//www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2011
  /12/chinanukes.php
• Robert Burns, US Weighing Steep Nuclear Arms
  Cuts, Associated Press, February 14, 2012,
  http//www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/artic
  les/2012/02/14/ap_newsbreak_us_weighing_steep_nucl
  ear_arms_cuts/
• SLIDE 14 OUR PROLIFERATION PAST AND PRESENT
• Henry D. Sokolski, Nuclear 1914 The Next Big
  Worry, in Henry Sokolski, ed., Taming the Next
  Set of Strategic Weapons Threats, Carlisle, PA
  Strategic Studies Institute, May 2006, p. 44,
  available from http//www.npolicy.org/thebook.php?
  bid8.

19
Sources Continued

• SLIDE 12 OUR PROLIFERATION FUTURE
• Henry D. Sokolski, Nuclear 1914 The Next Big
  Worry, in Henry Sokolski, ed., Taming the Next
  Set of Strategic Weapons Threats, Carlisle, PA
  Strategic Studies Institute, May 2006, p. 45,
  available from http//www.npolicy.org/thebook.php?
  bid8.