Complex Knowledge

1
Complex Knowledge

• Dave Snowden
• Cynefin Centre for Organisational Complexity

2
The three rules of Knowledge Management

• Knowledge can only be volunteered, it cannot be
  conscripted
• Camouflage motivated by fear of abuse
• Conformity motivated by time
• I only know what I know when I need to know it
• Human knowledge requires contextual stimulation
• The way that we know things is not the way that
  we say we know them, and that goes for decision
  making too
• We always know more than we can say, and we will
  always say more than we can write down
• Context Management
• Narrative Management
• Content Management

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Knowledge is the means by which we inform, not a
higher order of information
Wisdom
Knowledge
Information
Data
4
Knowledge is the means by which we inform, not a
higher order of information
Wisdom
Knowledge
Information
Data
5
Knowledge is the means by which we inform, not a
higher order of information
Context
Data
Information
Knowledge
Wisdom
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The model that launched a thousand failed KM
initiatives Nonakas SECI

• Originally a paper on knowledge transfer in the
  consumer goods manufacturing industry in Japan
• Rapidly generalised as a model for knowledge
  transfer in all sectors
• Closely linked with Business Process
  Re-engineering
• Used way beyond Nonakas original intent

Tacit
Explicit
S
E
Tacit
Socialisation
Externalisation
C
I
Explicit
Combination
Internalisation
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ASHEN Modela meaningful question

• ArtefactsAny thing made by people, processes,
  documents, tools in which knowledge is imbedded
• SkillsAbilities that can be trained and measured
  without ambiguity, but remember the time issue
• HeuristicsRules of thumb, the outcome of
  experience, the main repository of knowledge
  mostly unarticulated
• ExperienceAccumulated experience of failure and
  success which allows the right pattern to be
  triggered in the right context
• Natural TalentSome people are just better at
  doing things than other people and they are
  often not the people you expect

8
Knowledge Disclosure Pointsa meaningful context

• Any event or activity which reveals knowledge
  through use
• Decisions
• Problems resolution
• Solution creation
• Judgement
• Learning points
• Used to create the context in which the ASHEN
  question can be asked
• Can be achieved through virtual and physical
  means
• Virtual allows anonymity and multi-persona
  techniques to be used
• Physical provides a different dynamic of
  interaction to vitual (not better or worse but
  virtual)
• DO NOT judge or value or move to solution

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First Exercise

• Knowledge Disclosure Points

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Discovering KDP ASHEN

• Anecdote Circles
• A group with cohesive experience
• May use a structured task (e.g. future history)
• Stimulate Ditting
• Use of Actors, Cartoonists etc
• Use of Proxies
• Mass Capture Techniques
• Naïve Interviews
• The Set up
• Participative techniques
• Field Interviews
• Participative Observation
• Deep Emersion

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From KDP to Knowledge Objects
KDP CLUSTERS
KNOWLEDGE OBJECTS
ASK ASHEN
S
A
E
A
S
A
N
H
A
S
A
H
A
ASHEN CLUSTERS
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From KDP to Knowledge Objects
KDP CLUSTERS
KNOWLEDGE OBJECTS
ASK ASHEN
S
A
E
A
S
A
N
H
A
S
A
H
A
ASHEN CLUSTERS
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Communities and JIT Knowledge management

• Using the natural flow patterns of an organisation

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Acceptable levels of Abstraction
Abstraction
ULAA
LLAA
Cost of Codification
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The Cynefin sense making framework applied to
knowledge management
High Abstraction
Communities of Practice The Domain 150
The Shadow Organisation Domain of 15
Learning Cultures
Teaching Cultures
Chaos the threat of the new Crisis management
opportunity
Committees Review Bodies Bureaucracy
Low Abstraction
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The Cynefin sense making framework applied to
knowledge management
High Abstraction
Communities of Practice The Domain 150
The Shadow Organisation Domain of 15
Learning Cultures
Teaching Cultures
Chaos the threat of the new Crisis management
opportunity
Committees Review Bodies Bureaucracy
Low Abstraction
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The Cynefin sense making framework applied to
knowledge management
High Abstraction
Good Practice
Emergent Practice
Learning Cultures
Teaching Cultures
Decisive Action
Best Practice
Low Abstraction
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Communitiesan emergent model
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Communitiesan emergent model
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Social Network Analysis
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Knowledge Project Matrix
THE THINGS DECISION MAKERS VALUE
5
2
4
1
3
7
6
!!!!
!!
!!!!
KNOWLEDGE OBJECTS
!!
!!!!!!
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Knowledge Project Matrixeasy to sell, hard to
implement
THE THINGS DECISION MAKERS VALUE
5
2
4
1
3
7
6
!!!!
!!
!!!!
KNOWLEDGE OBJECTS
!!
!!!!!!
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Knowledge Project Matrixhard to sell, easy to
implement
THE THINGS DECISION MAKERS VALUE
5
2
4
1
3
7
6
!!!!
!!
!!!!
KNOWLEDGE OBJECTS
!!
!!!!!!
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Knowledge Project Matrixa portfolio of knowledge
projects
THE THINGS DECISION MAKERS VALUE
5
2
4
1
3
7
6
!!!!
!!
!!!!
KNOWLEDGE OBJECTS
!!
!!!!!!
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Creating a Knowledge Strategywhat related to
value, where and flow
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The history and context of knowledge management

• The first generation before the SECI model
• Information Management
• Technology supports human decision making
• The second generation the SECI period (corruption
  of Nonaka)
• Knowledge is tacit or explicit
• KM practice focuses on the conversion of tacit to
  explicit knowledge
• Closely linked to Business Process Re-engineering
  (BPR)
• Focus on maximising efficiency
• The third generation post SECIthe impact of
  complexity science
• Knowledge is never wholly tacit or explicit
• Just in Time Knowledge Management
• A focus on effectiveness rather than efficiency

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To improve the effectiveness (not the efficiency)
of decision making and to create the conditions
for innovation

• The purpose of Knowledge Management

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3rd Generation or Post SECI KM

• Content Management
• Narrative Management
• Narrative representation, neither qualitative,
  quantitative but emergent
• Archetypes themes
• Narrative databases
• Indexed on emergent, NPML and Demographic data
• Enable Serendipitous encounter
• Myth Management
• Fable Construction
• Story Virus
• Monitoring
• Context Management
• Social network stimulation
• Expertise location
• Narrative (metaphor)
• JIT KM

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Technology is a tool if we pick it up and it
fits our hand it is useful, if we have to
bio-reengineer our hand to fit the tool something
is going badly wrong!
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Knowledge Managementthe final metaphor
How do you learn to ride a bicycle?
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The Cynefin Centre
Nasrudin found a weary falconsitting one day on
his window-sill. He had never seen a bird like
this before. You poor thing, he said, how ever
were you to allowed to get into this state? He
clipped the falcons talons and cut its beak
straight, and trimmed its feathers. Now you look
more like a bird, said Nasrudin. From Idries
Shah, The exploits of the Incomparable Mulla
Nasrudin The subtleties of the Inimitable Mulla
Nasrudin. Octagon Press, London 1985
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The Cynefin Centre

• A new paradigm in research and method development

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The presumptions of management science and
consultant practice

• The presumption of rational choice
• human actors make a rational decision based on
  self interest
• individual and collective behavior can be managed
  by manipulation of pain/pleasure
• education to make those consequences evident will
  change behavior
• The presumption of intentional capability
• the acquisition of capability indicates an
  intention to use that capability
• actions from competitors are the result of
  intentional behaviour every blink we see is in
  effect a wink and act accordingly.
• hypocrisy of intent, we have accidents, they
  dont
• The presumption of unitary and stable identity
• organisations are aggregations of discrete
  individuals
• categorisation and stereotyping
• scalability the rule of 15 150
• The presumption of order
• relationships between cause and effect capable of
  discovery and empirical verification and in
  consequence, prescriptive and predictive models
  are possible

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Contextual Complexitythe landscape of management
Complex The domain of many possibilities Cause
and effect coherent in retrospect, repeat
accidentally
Empirically Knowable The domain ofthe
probable Cause and effect separatedover time
space but repeat
Empirically Known The domain ofthe actual Cause
and effect relationsrepeating predictable
ChaosThe domain of the inconceivable No cause
and effect relationships generally perceivable
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Contextual Complexitydecision models
The domain ofthe probable Sense Analyse Respond
The domain of many possibilities ProbeSenseRespo
nd
The domain of the inconceivable ActSenseRespond
The domain ofthe actual SenseCategorise Respond
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Contextual ComplexityIntervention types
Complex The domain of many possibilities Pattern
Management PERSPECTIVE FILTERS COMPLEX ADAPTIVE
SYSTEMS
Empirically Knowable The domain ofthe
probable Analytical/Reductionist SCENARIO
PLANNING SYSTEMS THINKING
Empirically Known The domain ofthe
actual Legitimate best practice STANDARD
PROCEEDURES PROCESS RE-ENGINEERING
ChaosThe domain of the inconceivable Stability
focused intervention ENACTMENT TOOLS CRISIS
MANAGEMENT
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Interpretation of state determined by preference
for action
Complex
Knowable
DISORDER
Known
Chaos
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Crisis managementmulti-point attractors

• Asymmetric Collapseexcessive order leads to the
  collapse of order chaos
• Single point attractorsthe charismatic dictator
  stabilise to order, with the danger of asymmetric
  collapse
• Multi point attractorscreate several points of
  attraction (chaos to complexity) to seed
  possibilities
• Select favourable patterns to exploit (Complex to
  Knowable)
• Kill unfavourable patterns (but you dont know
  which they will be

X
X
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Discovery and InterventionNetwork linkages
Domain of the Probable
Domain of Possibilities
Weak central strong distributed
Strong central strong distributed
Inconceivable Domain
Domain of the Actual
Strong central weak distributed
Weak Central weak distributed
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Diagnosis - principles
Domain of the Probable We have learnt how to
solve this problem and are now in a stable
situation We have been here before and any
deviations are readily understood Diagnostics can
be separatedfrom intervention
Domain of Possibilities Every time we think we
have solved the problem it returns in a different
form Minor, troublesome events occur but are
easily rationalised Diagnostics are
interventions they influence the patterns
Inconceivable Domain This is a new situation in
which we no previous experience and have no
reflective time Something completely unexpected
at this time There is no time or need for any
diagnostic
Domain of the Actual We can teach people how to
do things very quickly and ensure compliance We
control the space and can determine behaviour Any
diagnostic is a simple check against
predetermined criteria
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Intervention
Domain of Possibilities Multiple small and
diverse interventions to create options Always
have an exit strategy to the ordered domains for
exploitation PROBE SENSE - RESPOND
Domain of the Probable Analytical techniques to
determine facts and option range Create
ritual/cyclical process to prevent entrainment of
expertise SENSE ANALYSE - RESPOND
Domain of the Actual Standard process with
reviewcycle clear measures Establish
indicators to prevent catastrophic failure SENSE
CATEGORISE - RESPOND
Inconceivable Domain Single or multi point
attractor(s) to stabilise situation Avoid
creating long term dependency on single
attractor ACT SENSE - RESPOND
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The Cynefin Life Cycle

• Licensed Methods
• Comprise
• Components
• Models and
• Tools
• Which have
• Attributes and
• Uses
• And combine into
• Assemblies and
• Recipes
• Interface with
• Other bounded techniques

• Emergent Methods
• Are
• Experimental
• Innovative and
• Challenging
• They are
• Sold at cost
• Using key staff and
• Aim to become Licensed
• They can
• Use the elements of licensed method
• Create new elements

• Discovery Programs
• Address
• Intractable Problems
• Re-vitalising other approaches
• Comprise
• Catalytic and Patterning Events
• Focused Participatory Learning Streams
• Emergent Research
• Typically
• Run over 3-6 months
• Are Multi-client