IWMI Delhi

1
Project Review MeetingPhase I Strategic
Analyses of the River Linking Project

• IWMI Delhi

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IWMI Analysis of NRLP
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NCIWRD Projections (High demand)
Water Supply and Demand Year 2000 Year 2025 Year 2050
Potentially Utilizable Water Resources (km3) Surface water 690 Groundwater 432 Surface water 690 Groundwater 432 Total -1022
Water Demand (km3)
Domestic 33 62 111
Industrial 31 67 81
Irrigation 531 611 807
Sub total 595 740 999
PowerNavigation 11 43 85
Environment 5 10 20
Total 611 793 1104
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Overview

• Inception Workshop in April 2005
• Phase I has 11 activities
• Water Availability and water accounting drivers
  (Dependable water supply, Potentially Utilizable
  water supply, Efficiency, return flows, flows to
  swamps etc.) by A. D. Mohile, BK Anand
• Environmental water demand by Vladimir Smakhtin,
  .
• Population Growth, Urbanization, Domestic Water
  Demand by Aslam Mahmood and Amitabh Kundu
• Regional Economic Growth, Industrial and Service
  sector water demand by KV Raju, Deshpande

5
Overview

• 5. Changing Consumption patterns by Sanjive
  Phansalkar, OP Singh
• National food Security scenarios (WTO Agriculture
  agreement, Internal Agriculture policy Impacts)
  by Charlotte de Fraiture, RPS Malik, Shilp
  Verma.
• Future of Rural Livelihood by Anik Bhaduri,
  Amrita
• Future of Irrigation and Agriculture by Anik
  Bhaduri, UA, TS, Amrita
• Potential in Rainfed Agriculture by Bharat
  Sharma, KPR Vittal

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Overview

• 10. Opportunities for Increasing Canal Water
  Productivity by Dinesh Kumar, KP Palainisamy
• 11. Potential Spread of Water Saving Technologies
  by Dinesh Kumar, Samad, Bharat
• 12. Potential in Water Harvesting by Dinesh
  Kumar, Bharat, KPR VIttal
• Intensification of Groundwater use and
  Environmental Impacts by Sundar Krishnan
• 14. Water Futures Scenarios and synthesis by
  Upali Amarasinghe, Tushaar Shah, Shilp Verma

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Overview

• Synthesis by March 2006
• Phase I completion workshop at the ITP meeting in
  March 8-10, 2006
• Start Phase II activities in April 2006
• So we, need outputs of Phase I by January 31st,
  2006

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Purpose of the meeting

• To assess where we are now?
• Discuss progress against the TOR
• Identify the constraints/gaps
• Discuss the way forward

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1. Water Availability of River Basins - Issues
Indias Water Resources km3
Surface water produced internally 418
Ground water produced internally 1220
Over lap 380
Flows from other countries 638
Totally Renewable Water Resources 1896
Source FAO AQUASTAT
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1. Water Availability of River Basins - Issues

• Water Supply
• Dependable water resources (at P75)
• Reservoir storage and evaporative fractions
• Return flows to groundwater and surface
• PUWR (Surface, groundwater, overlap)

• Water demand and accounting drivers
• Irrigation efficiency
• Consumptive use factors in dom ind. Withdrawals
• Non-process evaporative fractions (flows to
  swamps, sinks)
• Implications on water supply/accounting drivers
  due to
• Water pricing
• Climate change
• Waste lands increasing net sown area

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1. Water Availability of River Basins - Issues

• Outputs
• Dependable RWR, PUWR estimates (surface water,
  groundwater,overlap) of river basins
• Future scenarios of water demand drivers (irri.
  efficiency, consumptiv use factors, return flows,
  flows to swamps and sinks) of river basins
• Draft paper (s)

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2. Environmental Water Demand of Indian River
Basins

• Scope
• Assess present state of river ecologies/eco
  system services
• Methodology and estimates of environmental water
  demand of Indian river basins
• Implications of EWD estimates due to
• Hydrological variability
• Changes in Water regimes
• Changes in income, life styles, environmental
  awareness
• Cultural and traditional Values

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2. Environmental Water Demand of Indian River
Basins

• Outputs Research paper
• Methodology
• EWD estimates
• Future scenarios

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3. Population Projections
Population growth Scenario UN 1994 revision NCIWRD assumption UN 2004 Revision (HIV/AIDS in) New projection??
Low 1346 1346 1333 1333
Medium 1640 1593
High 1980 1581i 1980 1541ii
??
i Visaria Visaria projections lt UN Medium
projections ii- New Population projections ??
could be 40 million less than NCIWRD projections
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3. Population Projections
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3. Population projections

• IWMI Projections for States/Districts
• Use 2001 census as base year
• Use 2001 state wise fertility tables
• Use 1991-2001 growth rates to estimate district
  populations
• IWMI projections for river basins
• Locate class I cities in basins
• Distribute the rest of population based on Net
  Sown Area (Use IWMI Land use Land cover map)

• NCIWRD projections for State/Districts
• Based on 1991 populations estimates
• NCIWRD projections for river basins
• Divided proportionate to geographical area of
  districts

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3. Population projections

• Output
• Total Population projections
• Incorporate state wise life tables for state
  projections
• Project State/District wise Total/Urban Population

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4. Domestic Water Demand

• NCIWRD Norms
• 220 lpcd (or 80 m3/pc/year) in urban areas
• 150 lpcd (or 50 m3 /pc/year) in rural areas

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4. Domestic Water Demand
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4. Domestic Water Demand
Variable Coefficient SE
Ln(GDP/pc) 1.971 .459
LN(GDP/pc)2 -0.102 .028
Ln(UR. pop) 0.478 .193
Constant -6.981 1.56
R2 55 55
- Significant at .05 level - Significant at .05 level - Significant at .05 level
Variable 2000 Elasticity
Dom with /pc (m3) 31
GDP (in 1995 US 463 0.71
Urban pop. 28 0.47
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4. Domestic Water Demand
Variables 2000 2025 NCIWRD 2025 Scenarios (GDP growth) 2025 Scenarios (GDP growth) 2025 Scenarios (GDP growth) 2025 Scenarios (GDP growth)
Variables 2000 2025 NCIWRD 3 4 5 6
GDP 463 976 1234 1568 1987
Urban pop 28 38 38 38 38
Dom. With/pc (m3/year) 31 47 61 74 90 110
Dom. With/pc (m3/year) 51 77 101 121 148 181
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4. Domestic Water Demand
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4. Domestic Water Demand

• Output
• Urban population growth projections (Class I-VI
  cities)
• Domestic water demand

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4. Regional Economic Growth
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4. Regional Economic Growth

• Milestones
• State GDP projections

• Issues
• Growth of state level total and sector wise GDP

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5. Industrial Sector Water Demand
NCIWRD projections Year 2000 Year 2025 Year 2050
Industrial water demand 31 67 81-103
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5. Industrial Sector Water Demand
Variable Coefficient SE
Ln(InGDP/pc) .658 .074
Constant -748 .478
R2 38 38
- Significant at .001 level - Significant at .001 level - Significant at .001 level
Variables 2000 2025 NCIWRD 2025 Scenarios (Ind. GDP growth) 2025 Scenarios (Ind. GDP growth) 2025 Scenarios (Ind. GDP growth) 2025 Scenarios (Ind. GDP growth)
Variables 2000 2025 NCIWRD 5 6 7 8
Ind. GDP 123 418 528 668 8427
Ind. With/pc 31 50 80 98 121 150
Ind. With (km3) 31 67 106 131 162 200
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5. Industrial Sector Water Demand

• Issues
• Type of industries
• Unit water demand
• Future growth patterns
• Water saving technologies
• Water pricing
• Investment in recycling

• Milestones
• Regional (State level) industrial activities and
  water consumption patterns
• Regional industrial growth and water demand
  scenarios

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6. Service Sector Water Demand

• Issues
• Service sector activities (includes navigation
  and hydropower) and water demand at present
• Future growth
• Water saving technologies
• Water pricing

• Milestones
• Regional service sector activities and current
  water demand
• Future service sector water demand scenarios

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Irrigation Water Demand

• Major drivers
• National self sufficiency
• Adequate livelihood and food security for rural
  people who are dependent on food grain production
• Grain orientation in agriculture (Grain area/
  gross sown area)
• Grain productivity growth
• Groundwater irrigation expansion
• Irrigation efficiency growth

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7. Grain demand - Changing Consumption patterns
Grain demand Year 1993 Year 2000 NCIWRD projections NCIWRD projections
Grain demand Year 1993 Year 2000 Year 2025 Year 2050
Per capita (kg/year) 171 164 218 284
Total (M Mt) 177 194 320 494
Food 154 168 291 449
Feed 5.1 8.1 29 45
Seed/waste 17.7 18.4 29 45
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7. Changing Consumption patterns
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7. Changing Consumption patterns
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7. Changing Consumption patterns

• Outputs/Milestones
• Regional scenarios of food consumptions patterns
• Feed demand

• Issues
• Regional differences of consumption patterns with
  respect to
• Income and prices
• Life styles (more meat, diary, poultry products)
• Feed conversion ratios
• Livestock water demand

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7. National Food Security

• Issues
• WTO agreement of Agriculture on future self
  sufficiency targets
• Agriculture policy and virtual trade Between
  basins?
• Subsistence to market oriented crops- To which
  crops and to what extent?

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7. National Food Security
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7. National Food Security

• Outputs
• Crops and livestock surplus/deficit scenarios
  from WATERSIM
• Implications on agriculture demand drivers

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8. Future of Irrigation and Agriculture
NCIWRD projections NCIWRD projections NCIWRD projections NCIWRD projections
Factors Year 2000 Year 2025 Year 2050
Net Sown Area (M ha) 141 144 145
Cropping Intensity () 134 142 160
Gross Sown Area (M Ha) 188 204 232
Irrigated grain yield (Ton/ha) 2.33 3.40 4.0
Rainfed grain yield (Ton/ha) 1.00 1.25 1.5
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8. Future of Irrigation and Agriculture
NCIWRD projections NCIWRD projections NCIWRD projections NCIWRD projections
Factors Year 2000 Year 2025 Year 2050
Gross Irrigated area (M Ha) 76 98 146
Groundwater Irrigated area 64 49 46
irrigated grain crop area 67 70 70
rainfed grain crop area 65 66 66
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8. Future of Agriculture

• What happened
• Providing adequate livelihood to agriculture
  dependent population, and national self
  sufficiency of grains were the major drivers of
  irrigation area expansion (vertical and
  horizontal)
• Irrigation contributed much of the crop area
  gross sown area expansion
• Irrigation contributed to much of the crop
  productivity growth (directly and indirectly
  through better input use)
• Recent trends
• Decreasing Agriculture dependent population
• Decreasing share of grain area
• Groundwater expansion

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8. Future of Agriculture
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8. Future of Agriculture
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8. Future of Agriculture
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8. Future of Irrigation and Agriculture

• Issues
• Decreasing Agriculture dependent population
• Decreasing share of grain orientation
• Groundwater expansion
• Surface irrigated area

• Outputs
• Crop yield growth
• Cropping intensity growth
• Irrigated area growth
• Irrigation intensity growth

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8. Future of Agriculture
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8. Future of Agriculture

• Hypothesis Cropping, Irrigation, rainfed
  intensities will increase and will be major
  drivers of gross irrigated and sown area
  expansion
• Crop diversification
• Less water intensive crops
• Groundwater expansion
• Better water management

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• Project Review Meeting Phase I
• Strategic Analysis of River Linking Project
• End of Day One

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• Thank You