Integrating macro-economic developments and land-use allocations in simulating urban dynamics

1
Integrating macro-economic developments and
land-use allocations in simulating urban dynamics
2
Research context

• Two research projects in New Zealand to develop
  and use spatial models for supporting planning
  processes
• policy impact assessment
• forecasting land-use developments
• application to a rural region Waikato
• application to two urban regions Auckland and
  Wellington

3
Land use change over time

• Land use dynamics are complex and exhibit self-
  organising behaviour
• Planners and policy makers have a decisive
  influence on future land use

Contradiction?
Challenge!
4
Challenges

• Simulation of spatial developments over time
• Incorporation of a range of drivers
• Dynamics driven by processes operating on various
  scales
• Bottom-up and top-down interactions!
• Development of a system for policy support
• Useful system for policy analysts in supporting
  scenario studies and policy impact assessment
• Transparent system with access to data and
  parameters for technicians and modellers

5
Starting point

• Metronamica land use model
• Constrained cellular automata based model
• Yearly time steps
• Time horizon 2025-2050
• Spatial extent 100 x 100 km (Wellington)
• Spatial resolution 100 m (Wellington)

6
Transition Rule Change cells to the land use for
which they have the highest transition potential
until regional demands are met
Time Loop
7
How to obtain regional demands?

• Macro-economic model
• Input-output model
• Calculation of economic developments per sector
  taking into account the interdependencies between
  sectors
• Annual time step
• Demographic model
• Age cohort model
• Calculation of the population per age cohort
  based on birth, mortality and migration rates
• Annual time step

8
Integrating socio-economics and land use
Demand side
Supply side
t-1
- Exports -
Final demand ()
Change in final demand ()
Demographic developments
Reduction in output ()
Output ()
Conversion to land use demands (ha)
Land use allocation
Land that could not be allocated
- Spatial planning- Suitability -
9
Integrating macro-economics and land use

• Main benefit of using IO (or CGE) models is that
  the impact of land use can be analysed not only
  on one sector, but also on all other sectors
• Dynamic coupling between macro-economics and
  land-use change
• Impact of socio-economic growth on land use
  developments
• Impact of (limited) natural resources on economic
  development
• The concept of the economic model had to be
  stretched by calculating the demand in one year
  and the supply in another, not allowing an
  equilibrium in each year

10
Conclusions on the modelling approach

• Dynamic coupling between macro-economics and land
  use change
• Impact of socio-economic growth on land use
  developments
• Impact of (limited) natural resources on economic
  development
• Equilibrium approach of economic models often
  poses conceptual conflicts with the simulation
  approach of dynamic land use change models
• Being able to couple models technically doesnt
  mean the coupling makes sense!
• For future research it is recommended to focus
  first on the integration of the processes and
  next on the model implementation

11

• Thank you!
• hvdelden_at_riks.nl