Introducing alien ecosystem engineers to

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Introducing alien ecosystem engineers to Round
Island, Mauritius
Species lost 2 giant tortoises Role
dispersal of herbivore adapted seeds Surrogate
species Aldabra Giant Tortoise Madagascar
radiated tortoise
250 kg 16 kg
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New topic Climate change and conservation
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The main message
Humans
Climate
Biodiversity
Climate change is unequivocal Natural and human
systems have been impacted Adaptation and
mitigation are necessary Biodiversity/conservation
plays a role in climate
regulation Biodiversity/conservation is central
to tackling climate change
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Outline for Climate change and conservation Overv
iew Recent changes to the climate Physical
feedback loops Future Climate Change Biological
Impacts Ecosystem feedback loops Conservation
Implications
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Climate shifts are due to change in the retention
and distribution of solar energy
Carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour are
important in maintaining the current energy
balance
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Svante Arrhenius (1896) predicted the emission
of CO2 due to the combustion of coal will
eventually warm the world
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CO2 levels and global temperatures are correlated
Current levels (360ppm) are far higher than
natural levels
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CO2 levels and mean global temperature have
increased faster since the Industrial
Revolution Climate change scientists agree
heating is largely due to human induced increases
in greenhouse gas concentrations
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Changes in temperature over the last 30 years
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Changes in precipitation over the last 100 years
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Snow, ice and hydrological change
1979 2003
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Snow, ice and hydrological change
Grinnell Glacier 1938 1981
1995 2005
Glacier National Park glaciers decline by
70 - gone by 2020 Mount Kenya and
Kilimanjaro - decline by 60 Swiss Alps -
decline by 40 since 1850 - gone by 2050?
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Changes in sea level over the last 100 years
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Feedback loops The surface ocean has absorbed
nearly half of the increased CO2 levels due to
the burning of fossil fuels The ocean is
becoming more acidic 0.1 pH unit since
1750 Continued acidification will reduce the
ability of the ocean to take up CO2
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Feedback loops Permafrost soils act as a giant
carbon sink approx . 1000 billion tons of
Carbon Warming will thaw the tundra Melting
permafrost will release frozen methane and allow
decomposition of frozen plant material The
additional CH4 and CO2 will increase warming
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Feedback loops Warming will melt sea ice and
promote growth of shrubs in the arctic Puddles
and shrubs have different albedo (reflectance)
than ice and tundra Puddles and shrubs will warm
up rather than reflect UV Warm puddles and
shrubs will increase ice melt and further
shrubification
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C02 emissions will rise at least until 2040
All scenarios predict C02 levels will continue to
rise until the turn of the century
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Predicted global temperature and sea levels
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So IPCC predicts a rise in temp of 2 to 6.4 C
by 2100 Bob Watson (Chair IPCC) the world should
prepare for 4C of warming
What happens if the world warms by 4C?
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What happened the last time? 55 million years
ago Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Event 5-6C
increase Tropical forests in ice free polar
regions Acidified oceans led to vast die-off Sea
levels rose 100m higher than todays Desert from
South Africa to Europe
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What happens if the world warms by 4C?
India Bangladesh Pakistan shorter fierce asian
monsoon drought swUS, Central America, China,
South America dried rivers and exhasution of
aquifers deglaciation lack of freshwater
Canada/Siberia - reliable precipitation -
shelter and food for the world?
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