TEAM TERMINATOR

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TEAM TERMINATOR
Brian Novak
Michael Cleaver
Danny Ohrn
Emily Ramage
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TEAM TERMINATOR

• Strength
• Power
• Frequency
• Duration

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Al Gore says WHAT??????
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However, the actual hurricane data tells a
different story
Hurricane Intensity as a Function of Maximum Wind
Velocity
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Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 203.394 Chance
Probability 0.0055
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Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 3.4198 Critical
Value for p0.01 32.00Chance Probability
0.9997
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Slopes of Expected Value Regressions 1851-1899 -0.
0722 Knots/Year 1900-1949 0.707
Knots/Year 1950-2006 -0.219 Knots/Year
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Hurricane Intensity as a Function of Minimum
Central Pressure
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Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 25.8697 Chance
Probability 1.000
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Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 0.48922 Critical
Value for p0.01 32.00 Chance Probability 0.9999
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Slopes of Expected Value Regressions 1851-1899 0.
1754 Millibars/Year 1900-1949 0.352
Millibars/Year 1950-2006 0.1513 Millibars/Year
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Slopes of Expected Value Regressions 1851-1899 0.
1754 Millibars/Year 1900-1949 0.352
Millibars/Year 1950-2006 0.1513 Millibars/Year
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Landfall A Measure of a Storms Power
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Hurricane Formation

• The Three Requirements for Hurricane Formation
• Over Land, Hurricanes Die

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Our Data

• The Percentage of Measurable Storms that Reached
  Land
• The Number of Days on Land Per Land-bound Storm

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• Standard Deviation was 0.20 days
• A Chi2 Test Determined X2 0.24 with 14 degrees
  of freedom
• Critical Value 10.83, The null hypothesis
  cannot be rejected!

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Landfall Conclusions

• There is no linear correlation between time and
  percentage of storms that reach land
• The average number of days on land per land-bound
  storm

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Frequency of Damage

• Insurance Industry takes notice -Al Gore
• Swiss re sigma report
• More People in Hazard areas -IWTC report

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Frequency of Hurricanes
Chi squared value .125254642
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Major Hurricanes
Absolute s increasing
Chi squared Value .738022
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Category 45s have doubled in the Last Year1
-Al Gore Chi Squared Value 3.449001
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Frequency

• Increase in destructiveness not correlated
• Frequency of major hurricanes is increasing
• Shows some correlation to temperature
• Als short term scare

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Duration Categories

• Season Duration
• Storm
• All Storms
• In Hurricane Status
• Longest Yearly Storm

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10 Year Average Season Duration 1851-2006
Chi-squared 35.94 Critical value, 16 df, p
0.001 39.25
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Average Storm Duration vs. Temperature Deviation
1900-2006
Chi squared 191 Critical Value, 11 df, p
0.001 31.26
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Average Storm Duration as Hurricane vs.
Temperature Variation 1900-2006
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Longest Yearly Storm vs. Temperature Deviation
1900-2006
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Duration Conclusions

• Season duration shows a positive correlation over
  time.
• Data does not support a relationship between
  storm duration and global temperature increase
  since 1900.

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CONCLUSIONS

• Data does not consistently support a pattern of
  increased frequency and strength of hurricanes
  over time.
• Linear relationships remain linear despite
  increasing temperature trends.
• Discrepancies in measurement techniques?
• Intricate dynamics of hurricane formation?
• Single variable data modeling techniques?

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References

• Raw hurricane data from Greg Bothuns link on
  Blackboard.uoregon.edu
• Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking by Year
• http//weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/
• 1Lovgren , Stefan. "Al Gore's "Inconvenient
  Truth" Movie Fact or Hype?. National Geographic
  News. May 25, 2006. National Geographic. 24 Apr
  2007 lthttp//news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006
  /05/060524-global-warming.htmlgt.
• IWTC Statement "Global Warming and Hurricanes."
  Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Dec. 7,
  2007. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
  Administration. 24 Apr 2007 lthttp//www.gfdl.gov/
  tk/glob_warm_hurr.htmlgt.