Bhattacharya (1979)

1
?????????? ?????? ??????????

• ???????? ?., ????????? ?.
• ???????? ?., ???????? ?.

2
???? ???????????

• ???? ????????
• ????????????? ??????????? ????????????? ????????
• Bhattacharya (1979)
• Gombola and Liu (1999)
• ?????????? ?????? ? ??????
• ? ????? ??????? ????????????? ??????????
• Are Dividend Changes a Sign of Firm Maturity?
  (2002)

3
?????????? ?????? ??????????
????????? ?????
???????? ?????
????????? ???????
??????
????????? ??????????
?????????
?????? ?? ?????????
4
Imperfect information, dividend policy, and the
bird in the hand fallacy, Sudipto Bhattacharya
(1979)
???? ?????? ?? ????????? ??????, ??? ?????? ??
??????? ????????, ?? ????? ??????????? ??????????
?????????? ?????????? ?????????? ???????? moral
hazard ? ???????? ??????? ?????????????
??????????.
????????? ??? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????????
???????!
????????? ? ??????? ?????????? ???????? ? ?????
(??????????????) ????????? ????????
5
The Signaling Power of Specially Designated
Dividends, Gombola and Liu (1999)
????????? ?????, ? ????? ???????? ???????
???????? ?????? ??? ?????????? ? SDD. ??? ???
??????????
6
?????????? ?????? ? ??????
?????? ? ????????? ????????
??????? ?????? ?? ????????? Bhattacharya (1979)
Jonh and Williams (1985) Bernheim (1991)
?????? ?????? ?? ????????? Ymihud ? Murgia
(1997) Dividend, Taxes, and Signaling Evidence
from Germany
7
?????????? ?????? ? ??????Ymihud ? Murgia (1997)
Dividend, Taxes, and Signaling Evidence from
Germany
8
?????????? ?????? ? ????????? ???????
?????????
??????
????????? ??????? (Lintner (1956)
??????? ??????? Miller ? Modigliani
(1961) Bhattacharya (1979), Miller and Rock
(1985), John and Williams (1985)
??????? ? ??????? ??????? Brealey and Myers
(1996) Watts (1973), Gonedes (1978) Aharony and
Dotan (1994) Benartzi, Michaely, Thaler (1997)
9
?????????? ?????? ? ?????????Benartzi, Michaely,
Thaler Do Changes in Dividend Signal the Future
or the Past? (1997)
?????????? ?????????? ??????????
??????? ? ??????? ???????? ???????
??????
?
??????? ???????? ???????
10
?????????? ?????? ? ?????????Benartzi, Michaely,
Thaler Do Changes in Dividend Signal the Future
or the Past? (1997)

• ??????
• ?????? ????? ?????? ?????????, ??? ??? ?????????
  ???? ????? ??????????, ???? ??? ?????? ?????
  ??????.
• 2. ??????? ? ??????? ????????? ??????? ?????? ??
  ?????????.
• 3. ????????? ?? ???? ?????? ??????????? ?
  ????????????? ???????? ???????????? ???????????
  ??????? ? ???????

11
Are Dividend Changes a Sign of Firm Maturity?

• Gustavo Grullon,
• Roni Michaely,
• Bhaskaran Swaminathan
• (2002)

12
? ??????

• ???? ?????? ????? ????? ????? ??????????? ?
  ??????????? ???????? ? ??????? ?????????? ?????
  ????????
• ???? (maturity hypothesis) maturity ? ?
  investment opportunity set ? ? ???????????? ?
  ????? ??? ??????? FCF ? ?????????? ????????
  ?????? ??????????.

13
???????

• 7642 ????????, ??????? ?? ?????? ? 1967 ?? 1993
  ??????? ????????? ? ??????????? ???????? (6284 ?
  ??????? ?????????? ? 1358 ? ??????? ??????????).
• ???????????? ????????? ?????????? ? ????????
  12,5 500 ?? ???????? ??????.
• ??????????? ????????, ??????? ?????????????? ???
  ???????????? ??????? ??????????.
• ???????????? ??????, ?????????? ??????????,
  ?????????? ????????????????? ? ?????? ??????????
  ?????????.

14
?????????? maturity

• ???????? ????????????
• ???????? ?????
• ???????? capital expenditures ? cash.

15
???????????? (ROA)

• ? ??????? ????? ?????????? ?????????? ???????????
  ????? ?????? ?????????? ROA
• ?????, ????????????? ??????????? ???????,
  ????????? ? ????? ????? ROA ?? ???? ??? ????????
  ? LR
• (?????????????) ? ??????, ?????????????
  ?????????, ??????????? ???????????? ??????????
  ???????????? ??????????? ??????.
• ???????????? ???????????? ?????????? ?????????

16
????????? ROA
17
Dividend Payout Ratio
18
????

• ???? - ??????????????, ?? ????????? ? ???????
  ????????????? ??????????? ????????
• ?? ?????????? ?? ?????????? ?????????? ????????
  ????????????????? ??????? ?????????? ??????,
  ????? ????????? ????????????? ???? ?????????
• ??? ?????? ??????????? ??????????, ???
  ???????????? ????????? ????
• ??????????? ????????? ??????? ?????? ?? ???? ???
  ????, ????????????? ????????? 1, ?????????
  ?????????2
• ???????? ?? ???????? ?????? ?????, ??????????
  ?????? ?? ???? ??? ????????, ?????????????
  ?????????, ????? ???????? ? ?????????? ?????????
  ?????
• ????? ???????? ????? ???????????? ???????? ????
  ????????????? ????????????? ???????? ?????
  ???????? ????????.

19
????????? ????? (1)
20
????????? ????? (2)
21
Capital Expenditure Cash

• ?????, ????????????? ??????????? ???????, ?
  ??????? ????????? ??????????? ??????? ? ????????
  ???????? ?? ??????
• ????? ?? ????????? ? ???????????
• ?????????? ????????? ???????? ?? ???????
  ??????????
• maturity hypothesis
• free cash flow hypothesis

22
????????? Capital Expenditure
23
????????? Cash
24
Maturity Hypothesis

• ?????????? ?????????? ? ?????? ???????? ??????
  ???????? ???????????? ??????????????? ????????
  ???????? ????? ?? ?????? ????? ? ?????? ????????
  
• ?????????? ???????????? ?????? ????????????? ?
  ?????????? ?????????????? ????????????, ????????
  ???????????????? ????? ? ?????? ?? ???????
• maturity hypothesis ????????? FCF hypothesis
  ????????? ????? ?????????? ? ??????????
  ?????????? ???????? ??????????????????.

25
?????????? maturity hypothesis (Julio, Ikenberry
(2004) Reappearing Dividends)

• ?????????? ???????????? ????????????? ??????????
  ?????????? ? ???????? ?????? ?????????? ?? ?????
  ??? ? ?????? 2000 ??.
• 90-? ?. ?????????? ????? ????? ????????,
  ??????? ? ????????? ????? ????????? ?? ????
  ???????? ? ????????????? ??????????? ?????????
  ??????????.
• ???????? ????? logit ??????

26
????????????? ?????????? (Bulan, Subramanian,
Tanlu (2003) On the Timing of Dividend
Initiations)

• Grullon et al. (2002)
• ?????? ????????? ??????????
• ?????? ? ???????? ? ????? ???????? ????????
  ???????????????? ?????
• Maturity hypothesis

• Bulan et al. (2006)
• ????????????? ??????????
• ?????? ? maturity ??? ???????? ????????????????
  ?????
• Maturity hypothesis catering hypothesis

27
??????? ?? ????????!