The Leapfrog Factor

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The Leapfrog Factor Clearing the air in Asian
cities The Delhi experience
Anumita Roychowdhury Centre for Science and
Environment National Urban Air Quality Workshop,
Karachi, September 13-14, 2006
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Asia The Gas Chamber (Premature Deaths Due to
Outdoor Air Pollution)
WHO estimates 0.8 million deaths and 4.6 million
lost life years every year globally. Two-third of
this occurs in Asia.
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Asias unique challenges underestimating
health risks

• Asiawide PAPA review shows that effects of air
  pollution are similar to those found in the
  extensive studies of the West.
• The risk in India and Asia could be more if
  factors unique to Asia are considered
• Extremely high pollution levels and mixture
• Impact of poverty
• This has important implication for environmental
  monitoring strategies and public health policy in
  India
• We need strong controls at the early stages of
  economic development

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India Proliferating hotspots More than half of
the cities monitored during 2004 recorded
critical levels of PM10
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Some action in big cities arrest pollution
Downward PM10 in 5 cities lead to 13,000 less
premature deaths and lower respiratory illness
(WB study). Need even stronger action.





Source Graph based on NAMP data, CPCB, 1. World
Bank 2004, For a Breath of fresh Air
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Pollution-Vehicle link A special concern in our
cities

• As vehicles emit within the breathing zone of
  people cause high exposure.
• Evidences mount
• The six cities review by the World Bank
  vehicles contribute an average 50 percent of the
  direct PM emissions but 70 per cent of PM
  exposure.
• The WHO report of 2005 epidemiological evidences
  for the adverse health effects of exposure to
  transport related air pollution is increasing.
• Some of the deadliest air toxics are found in
  vehicular exhaust. These are carcinogens.
• Latency period of toxic risk is long. Effect of
  todays exposure will show up later

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The Kuznets Curve
Business As Usual
Alternative Path Of Progress
Pollution
Per-Capita GDP
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Technology roadmap in Delhi and other metros A
long way to go
Indian metros today (Euro III)
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Concern over toxic diesel emissions is driving
the technology leapfrog agenda worldwide
Singapore Leapfrogging its diesel emissions
standards directly from Euro II to Euro IV in
2006 Japan Say No to Diesels campaign. Sets
one of the most stringent global standards China
targets to introduce Euro IV fuels from 2008 in
Beijing Hong Kong In 2000 it became the first in
Asia to introduce 50 ppm sulphur diesel Thailand
targets to introduce Euro IV from 2009
onwards Europe Despite meeting Euro IV std it is
pushing for even cleaner diesel vehicles to
address the concern over PM and NOx The US
phasing in the most stringent fuel neutral
standards in the world South Asia is not even
close to catching up
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Only ultra low sulphur diesel can enable advanced
emissions control devices that can cleanse diesel
PM But clean diesel is not available in South
Asia
Source ICCT
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Fuel substitution An opportunity to leapfrog in
Delhi and other Asian cities

• The great CNG order in Delhi
• July 28, 1998 - Supreme Court of India orders the
  CNG program for Delhi
• No buses over 8 years old after 4/1/2000 except
  on CNG
• All buses on CNG or other clean fuel by 3/31/2001
• Financial incentives for CNG in taxis,
  three-wheelers etc.
• Increase the number of buses to atleast 10,000

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What is driving CNG programmes?

• Concern over toxic particulate emissions from
  vehicles
• CNG is replacing buses running on poor quality
  diesel, two-stroke three-wheelers and small
  trucks for maximum emission gains
• Clean fuel programme is linked with augmentation
  of public bus transport
• Liberation from fuel adulteration an important
  benefit
• Energy security

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Emissions imperatives Euro II diesel bus emits
nearly 46 times higher PM than Euro II CNG bus in
India.
Source Teri
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Delhi CNG story

• Barriers
• Government delayed regulatory measures to
  implement the programme. Confused issues.
• Bus operators delayed compliance. Operators
  ordered CNG chassis, but refused delivery
• clean diesel disinformation - emission
  benefits of ultra-low sulfur diesel DPF claimed
  for 500 ppm diesel alone

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Countering disinformation
CNG causes cancer
CNG technology is experimental
CNG buses are more expensive and will hurt the
poor
CNG vehicles emit more ultrafine particles
There is not enough gas to meet transport demand
CNG emits more greenhouse gases
CNG vehicles are unsafe
We confronted every myth that confounded decision
makers, public and media alike
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The historic verdict

• The Supreme Court order of April 5, 2002
• The Supreme Court fines the Union government for
  wasting courts time by repeatedly appealing for
  dilution of the CNG order
• Court impose fines on diesel bus operators
• Rs 500/day (about US11), to Rs 1000/day in 30
  days
• Operators must take delivery of new buses ordered
• Delhi Govt. directed to phase out 800 diesel
  buses/month
• National Govt. to report on measures for
  extending CNG to other polluted cities

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RDecember 2002 CNG programme established
astructure
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Lessons for Other Cities

• CNG is a viable technology for drastically
  reducing diesel PM and NOx emissions where
  natural gas supply/pricing are favorable
• Ensure proper implementation -- Need appropriate
  emissions and safety standards.
• Quality control of the design and engineering of
  OEM buses
• Discourage conversion of old diesel buses. If
  unavoidable enforce stringent quality control
  measures
• Need specially designed inspection and
  maintenance programs
• Large-scale change in vehicle fleet is possible
  in a surprisingly short time if the
  incentives/prices are right (carrot and stick).
• Design appropriate refuelling network

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What has Delhi achieved since 1998?
On fuel quality 500 ppm sulphur fuels in 2000 and
350 ppm sulphur fuels in 2005 Petrol with 1 per
cent benzene Mandated pre-mix petrol to two- and
three-wheelers On vehicle technology Euro II
emissions standards in 2000, five years ahead of
schedule and Euro III in 2005 On alternative
fuels Implemented largest ever CNG programme
more than 100,000 CNG vehicles in one city within
a span of 5 years Largest ever public transport
bus fleet on clean fuels 10,600 CNG
buses Other cross cutting policy
measures Improved air quality monitoring (Begun
monitoring of PM2.5 and air toxics) Strengthened
vehicle inspection programme (Implemented
improved CO and HC norms and begun a pilot phase
of lambda measurement) Efforts made to bypass
transit traffic Set up independent fuel testing
laboratories to check fuel adulteration
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Impact on air quality Particulate pollution
stabilised
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Delhi SO2 levels Dips further
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Delhi CO levels Lower despite vehicle growth
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Delhi The future pollution challenge Particulate
levels (PM10) though stabilised are still very
high
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NOx levels Though below standards in most
stations, rising steadily. Strong impact of
traffic.
Source Computed from Central Pollution Control
Board Air Quality Data
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Delhi reflects the national crisis While PM
levels remain high NOx begins to rise (NOx levels
in several cities of India 1998-2003)
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New challenge Explosive numbers of vehicles
threaten to undo the small gains in Delhi

• 2001 and 2021 population expected to grow by 67
  per cent. Vehicular trips per day by 131 per cent
• Delhis road network increased nearly three times
  from 1971-72 to 2000-01, but vehicle numbers have
  increased 16 times
• Delhi already has more than 4 million vehicles.
  Numbers rising rapidly. Around 385 personal
  four-wheelers and 569 two-wheelers are registered
  every day in Delhi
• Crawling peak hour traffic.
• Severe pollution, congestion and energy impacts

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MOBILITY CRISIS
MPW
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Time for second generation reforms in Delhi
 
Mobility management
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Personal vehicles use more road space, pollute
more, meet less travel demand
Note one car is equal to one PCU, 1 bus 2.5
PCU, 1 scooter 0.75 PCU Source Anon 2003,
Draft urban transport policy, Ministry of Urban
Development, Delhi
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Modal split Yet our cities are differentWhile
personal vehicles form over 90 per cent of all
vehicles, bus transport still meets over 60 to
80 per cent of the travel demand. Build on this
strength
Modal split in percent
Source World Bank 2002
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Joint traffic survey on HCBS corridor in Delhi
reconfirms that our cities are different
Bicycles 17 of the fleet -- meets 19 of the
travel demand Motorised traffic (Cars and 2
wheelers) 75 of the fleet -- meets 20 of the
travel demand Buses 8 of the fleet but meets
61 of the travel demand
A joint survey by CSE, RITES and Delhi IIT, 2006
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Delhis transport challenge

• By 2021 - even with present bus services, and
  implementation of metro rail and integrated rail
  and bus transport (IRBT) there will be a
  shortfall of nine million trips per day.
• Need good public transport system to leverage
  change
• Implementation of the metro rail system has
  already begun in Delhi
• Delhi government has developed a transport plan
  to meet the explosive demand and proposes the
  following public transport projects
• -- The high capacity bus system with dedicated
  corridors
• -- The monorail
• -- The electric trolley bus system
• -- Integrated rail-cum-bus transit
• High capacity bus rapid transit is being
  implemented as the priority project in Delhi

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Wrong policies undermine public transportBuses
are taxed higher than cars
Total tax per vehicle-km In Rs
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Only provision of public transportation is not
enough. Integrate all forms of transport.

• The city needs to integrate all forms of
  transport to maximise access and mobility
• Without easy transfers from one mode to the other
  passenger demand for each mode can remain small.
  Travel cost can increase.
• Poor coordination can seriously hamper operations
• Need good management system to create the
  interface for different modes of transport

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The Way AheadSecond generation reforms needed in
Delhi and other Indian cities
Leapfrog technology roadmap Leapfrog emissions
and fuel standards. Get clean diesel or restrict
dieselisation. Improve two wheelers emissions.
Expand alternative fuel fleet Reinvent
Mobility Build public transport to leverage
change Manage mobility Restrain cars Use
direct levers like parking policy Fuel economy
standards Other measures Effective IM and
emissions warranty. Use strong fiscal incentive
for change Improve air and health surveillance
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Thank You