Baseball: It

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Baseball Its All in the Data
Actuaries Club of Philadelphia May 13, 2010
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• Not one of these plays was ruled an error

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Its All in the Data

• How an actuary got into sports
• Case study fielding the holy grail of baseball
  statistics

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Data is Everywhere

• Baseball data is like any other data
• Millions of statistics bottomless pit of
  numbers
• Our job mine the nuggets that
• Are interesting
• Are relevant
• Reveal tendencies

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Danny Cox 1987 NLCS

• STATS, Inc. began pitch-by-pitch tracking
• Danny Cox regular season 1987
• First 70 pitches .268 opponent batting average
• Pitch 71 .345 average
• Vin Scully mentions this at pitch 70

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What Happened?

• 73rd pitch line-drive double
• 74th pitch long home run to left field
• 78th pitch sharp single to right
• 81st pitch line single to center
• 82nd pitch Vin Scully falls out of the booth

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The Dream

• Strat-O-Matic Baseball
• Bowie Dewan
• Statistician for the Chicago White Sox
• Computerized baseball Information

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The Michael Jordan Effect - 1993

• 1992 STATS tracks basketball
• Fourth Quarter Comebacks (down 15 points)
• Bulls win NBA crown beating Portland after
  trailing by 15 entering 4th quarter
• How hard is this?
• 1992-93 league record 1-259 (excluding Bulls)
• The Bulls?
• Bulls record 3-3
• Jordan leaves Bulls
• Bulls record 0-8
• Jump ahead to comeback season
• League record 0-168 (excluding Bulls)
• Bulls record 1-1

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The First Career

• Started as an actuary after college
• FSA in 1982
• Head of two Actuarial Departments
• I loved what I did!
• But sports numbers are more fun than insurance
  numbers

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The Decision

• Bill James Baseball Abstract
• The dream takes hold
• Two full-time jobs
• The risk

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Bunting A Lost Skill?

• In 2009, Angels infielder Erick Aybar attempted
  to bunt for a hit 29 times
• Was he successful? Whats your guess?
• 5 hits (.172 average)
• 8 hits (.276)
• 13 hits (.448)
• 18 hits (.621)
• The answer is.

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Bunting A Lost Skill?

• 18 hits for an amazing .621 average!!
• The top bunters hit over .500
• Here is a list of some of the other top bunters
  from 2009
• Michael Bourn 17 bunt hits
• Emilio Bonifacio 15 bunt hits
• Nyjer Morgan 14 bunt hits

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The Second Career

• Collect data
• Develop products we want ourselves
• Money is not the object
• Have fun!

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The Second Career

• Bedroom Office
• Key clients AP, USA Today, ESPN
• Growing every year new office every year
• David vs. Goliath twice!
• 100 Full-Time Employees
• Sale to FOX

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From The Fielding Bible

• Best defensive outfielder in 2009?
• Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle Mariners
• Made 18 more plays than an average center fielder
  
• Basic plus/minus 18
• Enhanced plus/minus 45 (bases saved)
• 25 Plus/Minus Runs Saved
• 32 Total Runs Saved

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The Third Career

• Five different jobs
• Baseball Info Solutions
• Stat of the Week
• The Fielding Bible
• ACTA Sports (publishing)
• Camp Dewan
• Dewan Foundation Mission Honduras
• Be Jolly, Inc.

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Case StudyEnhanced Fielding Analysis

• Plus/Minus System (from The Fielding Bible)
• Defensive Misplays
• Good Fielding Plays
• Advanced Catcher Evaluation

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Game Charting at BIS

• Video scouts review every MLB game
• Every play entered into a computer
• Sample game scoring screen

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BIS Scoring Software
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Pixels to Data

• 28,000 pixels on the screen
• Location of every batted ball converted
• Distance from home plate measured in one-foot
  increments
• 360 vectors (90 in fair territory) emanating from
  home plate

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Polar Coordinates
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Also Chart

• Velocity of each batted ball (soft, medium, hard)
• Type of batted ball (ground ball, line drive,
  fliner, fly ball or popup, bunt)

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The Fielding Bible

• Take a step forward in fielding stats
• Batting stats
• What do you think of when I say a player had 40
  HRs do you get a visual image?
• How about 57 stolen bases?
• Pitching stats
• 39 Saves tells you something right away
• 2.41 ERA also tells you something
• Fielding what does a .982 fielding percentage
  mean?

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Plus/Minus System

• Vector 205 example for shortstops
• Softly hit grounders to vector 205 converted to
  outs by all shortstops 26 of the time
• Out made .74 (1-.26)
• Missed ball -.26
• Sum every play made or missed by every shortstop

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The Fielding Bible Volume II

• Additional ratings of catcher and pitcher
  defensive contributions
• Combines all rating systems into a single Runs
  Saved total
• Adds a players offensive, defensive, and
  baserunning contributions into Total Runs

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Runs Saved Components

• Plus/Minus (all except Catchers)
• Stolen Bases Saved (Pitchers)
• Stolen Bases Saved (Catchers)
• Earned Runs (Catchers)
• Bunts (Corner Infielders)
• Double Plays (Middle Infielders)
• Outfield Arms (Outfielders)
• HR Saving Catches (Outfielders)

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And You Get

• Franklin Gutierrez 32 Runs Saved in 2009
• Orlando Cabrera -33 Runs Saved
• Chase Utley 61 Runs Saved over 3 years best in
  baseball

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Team Totals 2009
Team Runs Saved
Seattle Mariners 110
Los Angeles Angels 65
Tampa Bay Rays 57
Toronto Blue Jays 52
Cincinnati Reds 52





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The Fielding Bible Awards
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Defensive Misplays

• Plays that are NOT recorded as errors or passed
  balls
• Loss of an opportunity to make an out
• OR an extra advancement by a runner
• 54 different types of Defensive Misplays

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Defensive Misplays

• Slow to recover
• Failing to cover first
• Cutting off a better positioned fielder

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Good Fielding Plays

• Fielder records an out when the play seemed more
  likely to be a hit
• OR a fielder prevents the opportunity for
  advancement of baserunners.
• 27 different types of GFPs

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Good Fielding Plays

• Robs home run
• Ground ball out
• Holds to single

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Franklin Gutierrez

• 2007 10 Runs Saved in 88 games in RF
• 2008 22 Runs Saved in 97 games in RF
• Wins Fielding Bible Award
• A throw-in as part of a three-team trade sends
  him to Seattle.
• 2009 moved to CF and plays everyday
• 32 Runs Saved was best at any position
• Wins another Fielding Bible Award
• 2010 so far 7 Runs Saved

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Data Mining in Sports

• Revolution in Major League Baseball
• Combining sabermetrics with scouting
• Finally!
• Moneyball by Michael Lewis
• Billy Beane finds a statistical edge
• Deification of Bill James
• Finally!

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The Summary Stat

• Total Runs
• Runs Created
• Defensive Runs Saved
• Baserunning Runs
• Positional Adjustment
• Who is the best player in baseball over the past
  three years?
• Guesses?

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The Summary Stat
Player Runs Created Baserunning Runs Runs Saved Positional Adjustment Total Runs
Chase Utley 361 13 62 87 523
Albert Pujols 414 9 56 35 514
Hanley Ramirez 381 9 -22 97 465
Matt Holliday 370 4 22 52 448







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www.StatoftheWeek.com
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Player Stats Projections

• Hitters peak at age 26 and age 27
• Pitchers -- age not much of a factor
• Each statistic is individually projected
• batting eye improves with age
• Past ERA is not the best predictor for future ERA

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BIS-D Software

• Jim Thome
• Last 120 grounders and short liners

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BIS-D Software
Jim Thome Last 135 flies and line drives
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Heating Up

• Home Runs per Game by Temperature
• Temperature HR/G
• 49 or less 1.74
• 50 59 1.97
• 60 69 2.03
• 70 79 2.07
• 80 89 2.16
• 90 or more 2.41

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Three Data Principles

• Look for data where its unexpected
• Dont be afraid to collect new data
• The more detailed the better

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Three Career Principles

• Strive for excellence
• Money is not the primary motive
• Enjoy what you are doing!