Scenarios of the Future

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Scenarios of the Future
Dr Mark Cresswell

• 69EG6517 Impacts Models of Climate Change

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Sources of information
But why? Why do we say the Earth is flat, when
the vast majority says otherwise? Because we know
the truth.
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Sources of information
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change..
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Sources of information
Royal Meteorological Society
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IPCC Key Findings
Observational evidence from all continents and
most oceans shows that many natural systems are
being affected by regional climate changes,
particularly temperature increases
IPCC Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation
vulnerability (page 8)
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IPCC Key Findings
A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown
it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a
discernible influence on many physical and
biological systems
IPCC Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation
vulnerability (page 9)
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IPCC Key Findings
More specific information is now available
across a wide range of systems and sectors
concerning the nature of future impacts,
including for some fields not covered in previous
assessments
IPCC Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation
vulnerability (page 11)
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IPCC Key Findings
IPCC Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, adaptation
vulnerability (page 16)
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IPCC Key Findings
Impacts due to altered frequencies and
intensities of extreme weather, climate and
sea-level events are very likely to change
Some large-scale climate events have the
potential to cause very large impacts, especially
after the 21st century
IPCC Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation
vulnerability (page 17)
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IPCC Key Findings
IPCC Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, adaptation
vulnerability (page 18)
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IPCC Vulnerability Findings
Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed
and projected future climate change, but on a
limited basis.
Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts
resulting from the warming which is already
unavoidable due to past emissions.
IPCC Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation
vulnerability (page 19)
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IPCC Vulnerability Findings
Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability
to climate change, and climate change could
impede nations abilities to achieve sustainable
development pathways
A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation
measures can diminish the risks associated with
climate change.
IPCC Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation
vulnerability (page 20)
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IPCC Temperature Scenarios
IPCC Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation
vulnerability (page 32)
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IPCC Temperature Scenarios
IPCC Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, adaptation
vulnerability (page 34)
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Future Vulnerability Thresholds
IPCC Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, adaptation
vulnerability (page 143)
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Adaptation-Mitigation-Impacts
IPCC Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, adaptation
vulnerability (page 748)
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Economic Development
Climate change poses a real threat to the
developing world. Unchecked it will become a
major obstacle to continued poverty reduction
Developing countries are especially vulnerable
to climate change because of their geographic
exposure, low incomes and greater reliance on
climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture
The Stern Review (2007) The economics of climate
change (page 104)
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Economic Development
Severe deterioration in the local climate could
lead, in some parts of the developing world, to
mass migration and conflict, especially as
another 2-3 billion people are added to the
developing worlds population in the next few
decades
The Stern Review (2007) The economics of climate
change (page 104)
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Economic Development
Little can now be done to change the likely
adverse effects that some developing countries
will face in the next few decades, and so some
adaptation will be essential. Strong and early
mitigation is the only way to avoid some of the
more severe impacts that could occur in the
second half of this century
The Stern Review (2007) The economics of climate
change (page 105)