Title: NOAA
1NOAAs Atlantic Hurricane Season
OutlooksByDr. Gerry BellLead Seasonal
Hurricane ForecasterClimate Prediction Center/
NOAA/NWSHurricanes Science and Society13
March 2012
Outlooks made in Collaboration with National
Hurricane Center/NOAA/NWSHurricane Research
Division/NOAA
2Outline
- Features of NOAAs seasonal hurricane outlooks
- Science behind the outlooks
- Tools used to make the outlooks
- Summary
3Features of NOAAs Seasonal Outlook
Outlooks indicate the expected overall seasonal
activity.
- Began in August 1998
- Issued late May and early August
- Outlooks are probabilistic, include
- Probabilities of season type,
- Likely (70 chance) ranges of activity
- Extensive discussion
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ products/hurricane/
CAUTION NOAAs outlooks are not a seasonal
hurricane landfall prediction. All persons in
hurricane-prone regions should prepare each and
every hurricane season regardless of the outlook.
4Measuring Hurricane Season Strength
- ACE index measures overall season strength by
accounting for the combined number, intensity and
duration of tropical storms and hurricanes. - ACESum of squares of maximum sustained surface
wind speed (measured 6-hourly) for all named
storms while at least tropical storm strength.
5Science Behind NOAAs Seasonal Outlooks
- Hurricane season strength is not random.
- Seasonal activity reflects an inter-related set
of atmospheric and oceanic conditions -- linked
to three main tropical climate factors - El Niño and La Niña Reflect large year-to-year
changes in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures. - Year-to-year changes in Atlantic sea-surface
temperatures - Tropical multi-decadal (25-40 year) signal
Reflects fluctuations in West African monsoon
strength and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. - NOAAs seasonal outlooks are based largely on
these climate factors.
6Typical Conditions Associated withActive
Atlantic Hurricane Seasons
This inter-related set of conditions has strong
links to tropical climate factors. CPC has an
extensive monitoring program to assess and
predict these conditions and the associated
climate factors.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/
7El Niño and La Niña
El Niño and La Niña reflect large year-to-year
changes in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures.
El Niño
El Niño suppresses hurricane activity by
increasing the vertical wind shear. Strong wind
shear can prevent hurricanes from forming, and
can also kill an existing hurricane.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring
/enso_advisory/index.shtml
8Tropical Multi-Decadal Signal Associated with
Atlantic High-Activity Era
This climate pattern lasts 25-40 years, and
produces key ingredients of a high-activity era
for Atlantic hurricanes warmer waters, reduced
wind shear, and favorable winds that strengthen
cloud systems coming from Africa.
9Tools used to MakeNOAAs Seasonal Hurricane
Outlook
- Outlook is subjective blend of statistical and
dynamical model forecasts. - Two Step Process
- Step 1 Predict the key climate factors using
observations and a suite of different statistical
and dynamical models. - Step 2 Predict activity likely to result from
predicted climate conditions - Statistical regression and analogue techniques,
- New NCEP dynamical model that produces direct
hurricane counts.
Plot showing model seasonal forecast of tropical
storm tracks
10Example Showing One Way to Combine Predicted
Climate Factors to Make a Hurricane Outlook
Example Model Sea-Surface Temperature
(oF) Seasonal Forecast Made Before the Season
Predicted Average SST Departure is 0.5oF
Colder
Warmer
-6 -4 -2 -1 -0.4 0.4 1 2 4
6
11Summary
- NOAAs Atlantic hurricane season outlooks
indicate expected overall seasonal activity .
They are not a landfall forecast. - There is a strong scientific basis for making
these seasonal outlooks. - Tropical climate patterns controlling seasonal
hurricane activity are often predictable.
Therefore, seasonal activity is predictable. - Extensive ongoing monitoring, assessment, model
development efforts. - The current Atlantic high-activity era began in
1995. Historically these last 25-40 years. - Hurricane preparedness is the most important
thing one can do to minimize impacts if a
tropical storm or hurricane strikes. All persons
in hurricane-prone regions should prepare each
and every hurricane season regardless of the
outlook.