GCM, ??????????

1
GCM, ????????????? ?GCM??????????????????????????
??

• ?2???????????
• 2006.03.29
• ????(????????????????????????)

2
?????????????????????????????????????(?Ts2.1?,
5.1?)
dQ radiative forcing by CO2 dQ ?dTs ?Feedback
parameter ? ?0(1-f) f Gain factor 1/?
Sensitivity parameter 1/? dTs/dQ
1/?(Km2W-1)
(Perpetual July2?simulation)
3
?????????????????????????????????????(?Ts2.1?,
5.1?)

??????????????(Cess et al.,1990) ???????????????
-???????????????????(Senior and Mitchell,1993,
Del Genio et al.,1996) ???, cloud formation,
??onset, -??????????????(maximum random,
mosaic,etc.) ???????? ?????? ???????????? ?
???????
??????
4
Cloud liquid(2xCO2-1xCO2)
Cloud water (1xCO2)
Cloud ice (1xCO2)
-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90
-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90
Tsushima et al.,2006
-2e-5 0 2e-5
0 2e-5
0 1.5e-4
-2e-5 0 2e-5
5
Cumulus cloud water (1xCO2)
Cloud water (1xCO2)
0 1.5e-4
6
?????????????????????????????????????(?Ts2.1?,
5.1?)

??????????????(Cess et al.,1990) ???????????????
-???????????????????(Senior and Mitchell,1993,
Del Genio et al.,1996) ???, cloud formation,
??onset, -??????????????(maximum random,
mosaic,etc.) ???????? -????????????? (Bony
and Emanuel 2002, Tompkins 2002, Klein et al.
2005)
7

????????GCM???????

• ISCCP Simulator (Webb et al.2001)
• ???????????????????
• ???????(tgt0.3)???????????
• 11micron radiance ????????????

8
ISCCP CLOUD CLASSIFICATION
50 180 310 440 560 680 800 1000
CIRRUS CIRROSTRATUS DEEP CONVECTION
ALTOCUMULUS ALTOSTRATUS NIMBOSTRATUS
CUMULUS STRATO CUMULUS STRATUS
HIGH
CLOUD TOP PRESSURE (MB)
MIDDLE
CLOUD OPTICAL THICKNESS
LOW
0 1.3 3.6
9.4 23 60
379
9
ISCCP D2
Cloud top distribution
GCM
high
middle
low
10
High
ISCCP D2
thin
GCM
midthin
thick
11
Middle
ISCCP D2
thin
GCM
midthin
thick
12
Low
ISCCP D2
thin
GCM
midthin
thick
13
??????????GCM???

• 125E-142E, 28N-40N
• 4????
• (CReSS HARU simulation???)
• ??????2004?4?
• GCM????slab ocean control run???5?

14
ISCCP DX data (30km?????????????????)
15
High_top cloud
High_top cloud
??(2004?4?)
GCM(????4?)
Middle_top cloud
Middle_top cloud
Low_top cloud
Low_top cloud
16
??

• ????
• ???????????????
• ?????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????

• GCM??
• ???????????????
• ?????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????

17
???

• GCM????????????????
• -???????????????????(Senior and Mitchell,1993,
  Del Genio et al.,1996)
• ???, cloud formation, ??onset,
• -??????????????(maximum random, mosaic,etc.)
• ????????
• -?????????????
• (Bony and Emanuel 2002, Tompkins 2002, Klein et
  al. 2005)
• ?????????????????????????????????????