NOAA Fisheries Science Centers

1
NOAA Fisheries Science Centers Salmon General
Science Needs A Presentation to the NOAA
Science Advisory Board

• William W. Fox, Jr., Ph. D.
• Science Director
• Southwest Fisheries Science Center
• NOAA Fisheries Service
• 9 August 2005

2
Outline

• Purpose
• Issue
• Presentation of Briefing
• NOAA Coordination and Views
• Desired Outcomes

3
Purpose

• To inform the SAB on what the Alaska, Northwest,
  and Southwest Fisheries Science Centers need to
  do their jobs better on salmon and in general
• Requested by SAB (7-12-05)
• Jointly prepared by NOAA Fisheries AK, NW and SW
  Fisheries Science Centers
• To obtain advice from the SAB

4
Issue

• What are the NOAA Fisheries Science Centers
  unmet needs for salmon and in general?
• Major Infrastructure -- Ship Time
• Observing Systems
• Pacific Salmon Research

5
Ship Time Needs (Days at Sea)
Current Capability (06) 100 Requirements
(12)

• Oscar Dyson (103)
• Miller Freeman (228)
• John N. Cobb (164)
• McArthur II (118)
• David Starr Jordan (242)
• Assertive (mothballed)
• Charters (1297)
• Total
• NOAA Ships (855)
• Charters (1297)

• Alaska Fisheries Science Center (FSC)
• NOAA Ships (857)
• Charters (855)
• Northwest FSC
• NOAA Ships (363)
• Charters (242)
• Southwest FSC
• NOAA Ships (672)
• Charters (145)
• Total
• NOAA Ships (1892)
• Charters (1242)

6
Ecological Ocean Observing Systems

• Alaska Ocean Observing System
• Arctic Ocean
• Bering Sea
• Gulf of Alaska
• Pacific Coast Ocean Observing System (PaCOOS)
• California Current System (Can.-Mex.)
• Northwest Association of Networked Ocean
  Observing Systems - WA OR
• Central and Northern California Ocean Observing
  System
• Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing
  System - SC Bight

7
Data Management
A Huge Challenge!
8
Regional Issues and Research

• Alaska
• Bycatch in groundfish fishery
• Effects of Oil Spills
• Climate and Ecosystem Interactions
• Northwest
• Salmon passage at large dams
• Hatchery/wild fish interactions
• Climate and Ecosystem Interactions
• California
• ESU boundary conditions and severely fragmented
  ESUs
• Resident and Anadromous ESUs
• Climate and Ecosystem Interactions

9
Salmon Research Needs
Research Dollars
NWFSC Current Funding shaded portion of column
represents external funding from other federal
agencies with co-management responsibilities in
the Columbia River system. Required Funding The
required funding columns represent NOAAs 100
requirement in the Planning, Programming,
Budgeting and Execution System (PPBES) plus the
additional funding (shaded portions) required if
NOAA had to fully fund other federal agency
salmon research in the Northwest and the
California Coastal Monitoring Plan in the
Southwest.
10
NOAA Coordination Views

• NOAA is addressing the needs through the budget
  process using its PPBES tool

11
Desired Outcomes

• Obtain advice from the SAB on ways and means to
  close the gaps in fisheries science needs
• Technology development
• Partnerships
• Increased NOAA Program Collaborations

12
Backup Slides

• Backup slides include more information on
  Regional needs for research that were identified
  but not discussed in detail during this
  presentation

13
Backup Slides

• Alaska Fisheries Science Center

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SALMON BYCATCH IN ALASKA GROUNDFISH FISHERIES

• Salmon bycatch continues to be an issue in the
  Groundfish fisheries
• In 2004,
• 62,493 chinook and 465,650 chum salmon were
  caught as bycatch in the Bering Sea and Aleutian
  fisheries
• 17,904 chinook and 5,910 other salmon were caught
  as bycatch in the Gulf of Alaska
• NOAA Fisheries North Pacific Groundfish Observer
  Program provides the data critical to monitoring
  salmon bycatch and the program needs ongoing
  support.
• The North Pacific Fisheries Management Council is
  currently considering alternatives to address
  salmon bycatch in the Bering Sea/Gulf of Alaska,
  following up on actions taken in the mid-1990s.

15
SALMON BYCATCH IN ALASKA GROUNDFISH FISHERIES
16
Effects of Oil Spills
17
Determining effects of climate variability and
ecosystem processes on Pacific salmon survival
and population status

• Need better validation of local, regional and
  basin scale comparisons between depressed and
  healthy U.S. salmon stocks
• Support for long term studies to better
  understand dynamics of salmon in complex
  ecosystems, improve inter-regional comparisons,
  and expand science-based approaches to salmon
  management issues.
• Research needed to

• Focus on the early marine period and immature
  stages
• Determine stock specific oceanic migration
  patterns
• Examine climatic and biophysical factors leading
  to variations in recruitment and survival
• Evaluate hatchery-wild stock interactions in
  marine environments
• Distinguish anthropogenic and climatic caused
  shifts in behavior or stock abundance

• Document temporal, spatial, use of different
  marine habitats
• Develop bioenergetics models of salmon diets,
  growth, and predator-prey relationships
• Understand effects of altered disturbance regimes
• Determine impacts to food web structure due to
  introduced species and human activities

18
Determining effects of climate variability and
ecosystem processes on Pacific salmon survival
and population status
Salmon populations respond to changing
oceanographic conditions
Dynamic oceanographic processes differ between
regions
Regional comparisons are critical in
understanding differences in salmon population
Common metrics are needed for making comparisons
between regions
19
Bering Aleutian Salmon International Survey
(BASIS)
F/V Sea Storm (USA)

• Understanding climate change in relation to
  declines in Bering Sea salmon populations.
• Surveys covering the entire Bering Sea pelagic
  ecosystem
• Observation systems for studying impacts of
  Bering Sea ice change
• Leverage through International Partnerships
• North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission
• Russia
• Japan

R/V Tinro (Russia)
R/V Kaiyo maru (Japan)
20
Population Monitoring

• Need to develop and implement a scientifically
  sound plan to monitor ESU status and trends
• Region-wide monitoring essential for relating
  recovery efforts to population status
• Feasibility studies needed to evaluate emerging
  technologies for monitoring
• Life-cycle monitoring stations should be
  established for partitioning survival during
  freshwater- and marine-phases
• Alaska
• Completed three years of a five-year BASIS study
  on marine factors related to Western Alaskan
  salmon population declines
• Gulf of Alaska salmon GLOBEC field work completed
  and in synthesis phase

21
Backup Slides

• Northwest Fisheries Science Center

22

• Develop robust life-cycle models
• Define effects of specific recovery actions on
  population status
• Define role of climate and ecosystem processes on
  population status
• (Management) coordinate ESA decisions with
  recovery planning efforts

23
Developing robust life-cycle models
2 spawners
4,000-5,000 eggs
1-1.4 Migrants return to spawning grounds

• Will require stage-specific survival rates
• Identify life stages and conditions that are
  likely limiting
• Evaluate relative contribution of ocean and
  freshwater conditions on population status
• Estimate likely effect of proposed recovery
  actions

120-151 1-year-olds to Lower Granite Dam
95-119 Migrants Below Bonneville Dam (77
transported, 23 in River)
2-3 Adults return to mouth of Columbia
4-5 Youngsters To 3rd Birthday (Estuary Ocean)
24
Status life cycle models

• NWC efforts
• Several models already developed, and 2-3 more
  currently in development (anticipated due dates,
  December 2005)
• Filling data gaps will allow development of more
  robust models in the future
• Some in-house expertise, but funded in several
  cases by reimbursables or soft money
• Current monitoring effort insufficient to support
  robust models in most ESUs.
• Significant data gaps include freshwater,
  estuarine and ocean survival rates
• Key area of research identified by RSRP and ISAB

25
Effects of anthropogenic actions

• Experimental monitoring of ongoing and future
  actions
• Establish causal and quantitative link between
  actions and population status
• Evaluate effects of management programs
• All areas habitat, hatcheries, harvest,
  hydropower

26
Status effects of actions

• NWC efforts
• Limited habitat conditions (e.g. Elwha dam
  removal) -- ongoing
• Some hatchery impacts (e.g. fitness of hatchery
  fish) -- ongoing
• Hydropower survival rates (e.g. estimates of
  direct migration survival) -- ongoing
• Limited efforts by other groups
• Habitat and hatchery experiments substantially
  underfunded
• Hydropower studies maintained on reimbursables
• Would contribute to improved life-cycle modeling
  and ability to estimate likely effects of
  proposed recovery strategies/suites of actions
• Evaluation of ongoing activities (e.g. Forest and
  Fish, PacFish) critical for determining whether
  recovery plans are/will be effective
• RSRP identified large-scale experiments aimed at
  determining hatchery program impacts as a key
  area of research

27
Determining effects of climate variability and
ecosystem processes on Pacific salmon survival
and population status

• Need better validation of local, regional and
  basin scale comparisons between depressed and
  healthy U.S. salmon stocks
• Support for long term studies to better
  understand dynamics of salmon in complex
  ecosystems, improve inter-regional comparisons,
  and expand science-based approaches to salmon
  management issues.
• Research needed to

• Focus on the early marine period and immature
  stages
• Determine stock specific oceanic migration
  patterns
• Examine climatic and biophysical factors leading
  to variations in recruitment and survival
• Evaluate hatchery-wild stock interactions in
  marine environments
• Distinguish anthropogenic and climatic caused
  shifts in behavior or stock abundance

• Document temporal, spatial, use of different
  marine habitats
• Develop bioenergetics models of salmon diets,
  growth, and predator-prey relationships
• Understand effects of altered disturbance regimes
• Determine impacts to food web structure due to
  introduced species and human activities

28
Role of climate and ecosystems

• Impacts of climatic and oceanographic variation
  on salmonid survival and population status
• Determine impacts to food web structure due to
  introduced species and human activities

29
NWFSC status of climate/ecosystem research

• NWC efforts
• Incorporating climatic conditions into life-cycle
  modeling
• Evaluating impact of introduced species, and
  non-normative native predator levels
• Developing research plan for Ecosystem-Based
  Management in Puget Sound
• Exploring potential for NWC-academic partnership
  for climate research
• Substantially underfunded
• Identified by many review panels (ISAB most
  notably) as a key area of research

30
Pacific Salmon Population Monitoring

• Need to develop and implement a scientifically
  sound plan to monitor ESU status and trends
• Region-wide monitoring essential for relating
  recovery efforts to population status
• Feasibility studies needed to evaluate emerging
  technologies for monitoring
• Life-cycle monitoring stations should be
  established for partitioning survival during
  freshwater- and marine-phases
• Northwest collaborative state/federal/local
  basin-scale monitoring projects
• Develop monitoring design (most data for the
  least money)
• Acquire detailed population and habitat condition
  data

31
Backup Slides

• Southwest Fisheries Science Center

32
Pacific Salmon Population Monitoring

• Need to develop and implement a scientifically
  sound plan to monitor ESU status and trends
• Region-wide monitoring essential for relating
  recovery efforts to population status
• Feasibility studies needed to evaluate emerging
  technologies for monitoring
• Life-cycle monitoring stations should be
  established for partitioning survival during
  freshwater- and marine-phases
• Southwest
• California coastal monitoring plan nearly
  complete, implementation not yet funded
• feasibility study of DIDSON acoustic camera for
  monitoring steelhead runs planned
• pilot life-cycle monitoring effort underway

33
Pacific Salmon Research
Severely Fragmented ESUs

• Research needed to assess effects of severe
  fragmentation
• Develop modeling framework
• Estimate migration rates and mechanisms
• Assess spatial correlation of extinction risks
• Assess viability of current, proposed and future
  structures

34
Pacific Salmon Research
Severely Fragmented ESUs

• Enhanced support required for current research
  efforts to assess fragmentation effects
• Several models developed
• Some spatially-explicit extinction threat data
  compiled
• Coast-wide genetic surveys of coho and steelhead
  in progress
• Tag- and otolith-based migration rate studies in
  early stages (proof of concept), funding needed
  for implementation

35
Resident Anadromous ESUsLife history variation
in O. mykiss

• Develop methods to determine life history
• Describe frequency of anadromy across landscape,
  and frequency of interchange
• Develop models to assess viability of mixed
  populations

36
SWFSC status life history variation

• Developed methods for analyzing otolith
  microchemistry (instrument at UC Davis)
• Preliminary study of anadromy and residualization
  within CA hatchery stocks complete
• Much work to be done-- sample collection,
  preparation and analysis
• Several population models in development
  collaboration with UCSC, SDSU

37
Determining effects of climate variability and
ecosystem processes on Pacific salmon survival
and population status

• Need better validation of local, regional and
  basin scale comparisons between depressed and
  healthy U.S. salmon stocks
• Support for long term studies to better
  understand dynamics of salmon in complex
  ecosystems, improve inter-regional comparisons,
  and expand science-based approaches to salmon
  management issues.
• Research needed to

• Focus on the early marine period and immature
  stages
• Determine stock specific oceanic migration
  patterns
• Examine climatic and biophysical factors leading
  to variations in recruitment and survival
• Evaluate hatchery-wild stock interactions in
  marine environments
• Distinguish anthropogenic and climatic caused
  shifts in behavior or stock abundance

• Document temporal, spatial, use of different
  marine habitats
• Develop bioenergetics models of salmon diets,
  growth, and predator-prey relationships
• Understand effects of altered disturbance regimes
• Determine impacts to food web structure due to
  introduced species and human activities

38
Determining effects of climate variability in
California

• Research needed on
• effects of altered disturbance regimes
• Flood cycles and habitat dynamics
• Conversion of snow-fed to rain-fed systems in
  Sierra Nevada
• Fire cycles and habitat dynamics
• Identify drought-resilient habitats
• regional- and watershed-scale assessments of
  stream temperature predictive models.
• response of freshwater systems to warmer
  temperatures, less reliable precipitation.

California is the southern range limit for 4
species of anadromous salmonids
Statewide changes expected. Largest changes
Sierra Nevada foothills southern California
39
SWFSC Status Climate Effects

• Underway Review of current knowledge about
  statewide effects for steelhead (collaboration
  with UCSC, UCSB).
• Pilot work regional-scale studies of stream
  temperature stream perenniality
• Complex interdisciplinary subject with limited
  work thus far.
• Underfunded.