WRF/Chem : Simultaneous prediction of weather and air quality

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WRF/Chem Simultaneous prediction of weather and
air quality

• Georg Grell
• Directly involved in WRF/CHEM development
• Steven Peckham (NOAA/FSL), Rainer Schmitz (U. of
  Chile, IMK-IFU), and Stu McKeen (NOAA/AL)
• Many more national and international collaborators

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Structure of talk

• Status of WRF/chem
• First shot at evaluation of WRFV2/Chem
  Comparison of WRFV2 with WRFV1/chem, other
  models, and observations during NEAQS2004
• Future WRF/chem plans at FSL and WG11

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          WORKING GROUP 11 ATMOSPHERIC
CHEMISTRY                                       
                                                  
                              
Georg Grell (lead), NOAA/FSL Peter Hess (lead), NCAR Carmen M. Benkovitz, Brookhaven National LabDaewon W. Byun, University of HoustonGreg Carmichael, University of IowaJohn McHenry, North Carolina                                                                                       Kenneth L. Schere, EPAPai-Yei, Whung, NOAAStu McKeen, NOAA/AL Bill Skamarock NCARRainer Schmitz, University of Chile and IMK-IFU Doug Westphal (NRL) Jon Pleim, NOAA,ARL,EPA Jerome Fast (PNNL) Jeff McQueen (NCEP/NWS)
Mission The mission of the atmospheric chemistry
working group is to guide the development of the
capability to simulate chemistry and aerosols
online as well as offline within the WRF
model.  The resulting WRF-chem model will have
the option to simulate the coupling between
dynamics, radiation and chemistry. Uses include
forecasting chemical-weather, testing air
pollution abatement strategies, planning and
forecasting for field campaigns, analyzing
measurements from field campaigns and the
assimilation of satellite and in-situ chemical
measurements. Interaction with other WRF
Groups The initial development of WRF-chem is
involved with the Numerics and Model Dynamics
(WG1), Model Physics (WG11), and  Land Surface
Modeling (WG14).   Current Status of
WRF/CHEM Model Evaluation Future Plans Real-time
Air Quality Forecasts from WRF/CHEM
This page developed by Bill Moninger and Randy
Collander.Model questions should be directed to
Georg Grell and Steve Peckham.Last modified
Thursday July 24, 2003 053106 PM
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WRF/chem (chemistry similar to MM5/chem )

• As of now Online, sometimes also called
  inline
• Completely embedded within WRF CI
• Consistent all transport done by meteorology
  model
• Same vertical and horizontal coordinates (no
  horizontal and vertical interpolation)
• Same physics parameterization for subgrid scale
  transport
• No interpolation in time
• Easy handling (Data management)
• Most efficient (overall CPU costs)

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Chemistry package - Transport

• WRF grid-scale transport of all species
  (currently mass core, mass and scalar conserving
  5th order in space, 3rd order in time)
• a version of PPM (both positive definite and more
  efficient, but less accurate) is now also
  available within mass core
• Subgrid-scale transport by turbulence
• Subgrid-scale transport by convection

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Sub-grid transport

• PBL MY2.5 mixing
• Soil/veg/snow any available WRF routine

Convective transport based on new Grell/Devenyi
ensemble scheme
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For tracer transport, the closure of the
convective scheme is simply

• Parameterized rainfall rate from any of the WRF
  convective parameterizations

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An ensemble of feedback assumptions is used
This makes it possible to tune the vertical
redistribution of chemical species by
subgrid-scale convection
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Current Chemistry Package

• Dry deposition (coupled with soil/veg scheme,
  flux-resistance analogy)
• Wet deposition by convective parameterization
• Biogenic emissions (as in Simpson et al. 1995 and
  Guenther et al. 1994), include temperature and
  radiation dependent emissions of isoprene,
  monoterpenes, also nitrogen emissions by soil
• May be calculated online based on USGS landuse

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Current Chemistry Package

• Chemical mechanism from RADM2 (Quasi Steady State
  Approximation method with 22 diagnosed, 3
  constant, and 38 (!) predicted species is used
  for the numerical solution), RACM (60 !!
  predicted species or more) to be released soon
• Photolysis (Madronich), coupled with hydrometeors
  and aerosols

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Aerosols

• Based on Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for Europe
  (MADE, Ackermann et al. 1998)
• Modified to include Secondary Organic Aerosols
  (SOA), (Schell et al. 2001)
• Extra transport total number of aerosol
  particles within each mode as well as all primary
  and secondary species for Aitken as well as
  Accumulation mode
• Diagnostic 3D variables PM2.5, PM10, 3 variables
  for interaction with photolysis and atmospheric
  radiation

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MADE/SORGAM

• Modal representation three modes (Aitken,
  Accumulation, Coarse), using log-normal
  distributions
• Inorganic chemistry based on MARS (Saxena et al.
  1986)
• Organic chemistry based on SORGAM (Schell et al.
  2001), anthropogenic and biogenic precursors are
  treated seperatly (for use with RADM2 chemistry
  biogenic precursors and their particle
  concentrations are set to zero, RACM will soon be
  tested)
• Dynamics include nucleation, condensational
  growth, and coagulation

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Aerosol/radiation feedback through three variables

• Dry scattering aerosol mass (organic and
  inorganic mass without soot)
• Dry absorbing aerosol mass, soot only
• Aerosol liquid water content
• Absorption of (3) so far neglected

Needs Improvement
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New Stuff for WRFV2 Chemical Mechanism,
Chemical Solver

• RACM chemistry with implicit Seulex solver
• Seulex solver generated using KPP (mass
  conserving)
• 73 species (49 transported species)
• 237 reactions
• Much better biogenics (important for SOA
  formation, also for Ozone)
• First step towards generalization (split of
  mechanism/ solver, KPP generation of solver)
• KPP offers adjoint generation

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Implementation of BEIS3 in WRFV2-Chem
Based on EPA BEIS3 v11 for SMOKE processor
Off-line
On-line
BELD3 1km gridded vegetation
WRF T, P, shortwave flux
Speciated gridded emissions at each emissions
timestep
module_bioemi_beis311
Reference emission factors
normbeis311
RADM/RACM speciation factors
Speciated reference emissions on WRF-Chem grid
RACM species emitted by BEIS3 ISO, API, LIM,
XYL, ETH, HC3, ETE, OLT, OLI, HCHO, ALD, KET,
ORA2, CO, NO
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Example of WRF-Chem BEIS3 Processing 27 km grid,
040609 0Z forecast
Reference Isoprene Emissions
Isoprene Emissions on 040609 at 17Z
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Physics and Chemistry Interface Design

• Flexible for use in different dynamical cores
• Plug compatible - few places to modify
• if adding scheme
• Model layer separated no parallelization code
  
• in physics or chemistry

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Organization of chemistry within WRF
Biogenic emissions
Solve Met
anthropogenic emissions
Species advection
Solve_int
Dry deposition driver
TKE turbulent diffusion
Chemistry_driver
Convective transport
Photolysis driver
chemical mechanism driver
Aerosols driver
Solve interface
chemistry Driver
Option
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Lined up for inclusion in the WRFV2/chem
repository (coming very very soon)

• YSU PBL scheme (PNNL)
• RACM
• New advection scheme (version of PPM, NCAR)
• CBMZ Chemical mechanism (PNNL)
• MOSAIC sectional aerosol module (with 4 or 8
  bins, PNNL)
• FAST-J photolysis routine (PNNL)

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Coming Soon

• SMOKE emissions Model (BAMS)
• More aerosol modules, two upgrades to MADE/SORGAM
  (BAMS, Germany)
• Fast Ozone solver (no aerosols for this one,
  CHILE)
• More chemical mechanisms (NCAR, Chile)
• Offline version (CDAC in India)
• Simple cloud oxidation scheme (NCAR and AL)
• Plume rise subroutine (AL)
• Photolysis routines from NCAR
• NCEPs NMM core (for met)

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Coming not so soon

• More sectional aerosol choices (EPA/ARL, NCSU)
• Coupling aerosols/microphysics (NCAR, PNNL)
• More chemical mechanisms (NCSU, EPA/ARL, NCAR)
• Aqueous phase chemistry (NCAR)
• More radiation schemes that include aerosols
  interactions (PNNL)
• Data assimilation (U IOWA)

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How to look at model output?

• RIP (developed at U of Washington for MM5 and
  WRF, uses NCAR graphics)
• VIS5D
• FX-Net (for real-time forecasting, based on NWS
  AWIPS workstations)

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FX-Net User Interface

• Imitates the AWIPS
• User Interface
• Functionality
• - Load
• - Animation
• - Overlay/Toggle
• - Zoom
• - Swap

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FX-net is now completed
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How do you get chemical input conditions?

• No 3-d observations available
• Most species are not even available on surface
• ????

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Chemical model input the solution

• You forecast your initial fields (works
  reasonable well since chemistry is very dependent
  on emissions input data)
• You keep your boundary conditions constant,
  except during outflow

There may be a need for data assimilation systems
to be developed in the near future to make use of
the ever increasing amount of Satellite data.
3dvar, 4dvar, OSSEs?
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More on chemical model input

• Anthropogenic emissions data are very important
  for model simulations
• Yet they are highly uncertain!! In some instances
  they have been off by an order of magnitude!

Both, 3DVAR and 4DVAR can be used to nail down
emissions better, also ensemble forecasts may
have a large roll in the future!!
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Possible applications of current modeling system

• Prediction and simulation of weather, or regional
  or local climate
• Coupled weather prediction/dispersion model to
  simulate release and transport of constituents
• Coupled weather/dispersion/air quality model with
  full interaction of chemical species with
  prediction of O3, UV radiation, as well as PM

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WRF/Chemverification and evaluation

• NEAQS 2004 WRFV2/Chem, WRFV1/chem, also 5 other
  AQ forecast models, Ozone and PM

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WRFV2/chem evaluation has started

• NEAQS2004 field experiment
• WRFV2/Chem was run with 27km and 12km horizontal
  resolution, WRFV1/Chem with 27km
• 7 models were used to produce ensemble forecast
• Aircraft, Radiosondes, Boundary layer profilers,
  and other observations will allow verification
  and evaluation in 3d

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Simulation Domains during July and August

• D01
• 110x135x35_at_ 27 km horiz. res.
• WRFV1/Chem and WRFV2/Chem

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Available model forecasts

• WRFV1/Chem 36hr runs twice daily (very
  reliable, has been running for almost 2 years)
• WRFV2/Chem27km 72 hour simulations at 00z, 60hr
  simulations at 12z
• WRFV2/Chem12km 36 hour twice daily
• Both WRFV2 runs had a significant amount of
  misses (switch from V1 to V2 happened just before
  the beginning of the experiment), these holes
  were filled after the experiment

All evaluations are for WRFV1 and WRFV2-27km
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Model Input

• RUC20 3dvar analysis, including cloud analysis
• ETA forecasts for boundary conditions
• 12-hr forecasts for chemical fields

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Real-time Model Configuration

• Scheme _
• Advection
• Microphysics
• Longwave rad.
• Shortwave rad.
• Surface layer
• Land-surface
• PBL scheme
• Cumulus
• Photolysis
• Chemistry
• Aerosols
• Biogenics
• Anthropogenic emissions

• WRFV1-Chem _
• 5th horiz. / 3rd vert.
• NCEP 5-class ice
• RRTM
• Dudhia
• Monin-Obukhov (Eta)
• OSU
• M.-Y.-J. 2.5 TKE (Eta)
• B.-M.-J.
• Madronich (1987)
• RADM2
• MADE/SORGAM
• USGS based
• 96

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Real-time Model Configuration

• Scheme _
• Advection
• Microphysics
• Longwave rad.
• Shortwave rad.
• Surface layer
• Land-surface
• PBL scheme
• Cumulus
• Photolysis
• Chemistry
• Aerosols
• Biogenics
• Anthropogenic emissions

• WRFV2-Chem _
• 5th horiz. / 3rd vert.
• NCEP 5-class ice
• RRTM
• Dudhia
• Monin-Obukhov (Eta)
• RUC-LSM
• M.-Y.-J. 2.5 TKE (Eta)
• Grell-Devenyi ensemble
• Madronich (1987)
• RADM2
• MADE/SORGAM
• Beis3
• 99

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Ozone monitors
Distribution of 8hr max Ozone values (observed)
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Ozone 8hr average comparison
r
Bias
RMSE
WRFV1/chem
WRFV2/chem
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Statistics for 8 Air Quality Forecast Modelswith
342 AIRNOW O3 monitors(7/6/04 through 7/29/04 -
24 days) Statistics for maximum 8-hr averages,
based on 00Z forecasts only. Medians of 342
monitor comparisons
Institute, model, horiz. resolution r coefficent Mean bias RMSE
NOAA FSL, WRF/Chem-1, 27km 0.66 14.4 ppb 20.8 ppb
NOAA FSL, WRF/Chem-2, 27km 0.65 3.5 ppb 12.4 ppb
Baron AMS, MAQSIP, 15km 0.64 2.9 ppb 10.6 ppb
Baron AMS, MAQSIP, 45km 0.62 4.5 ppb 11.4 ppb
MSC Canada, CHRONOS, 21km 0.62 18.6 ppb 24.0 ppb
NWS/NCEP, CMAQ/ETA, 12km 0.53 9.3 ppb 14.9 ppb
U of Iowa, STEM, 12km 0.52 25.3 ppb 29.6 ppb
MSC Canada, AURAMS, 42km 0.45 7.1 ppb 16.4 ppb
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PM2.5 comparison model domains
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PM stations
Obs (ug/m3)
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PM2.5
WRFV2/chem
WRFV1/chem
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Ensemble average
Stem2
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Sorted r-correlations
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Diurnal Variations
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Evaluation quick and dirty Summary

• WRFV2/chem appears to be outperforming WRFV1/chem
  (for correlations, and especially for Bias and
  RMSE)
• PM2.5 comparisons to surface stations at least as
  good as ozone comparison
• WRFV2/Chem also looks good in comparison to all
  other models for ozone as well as PM forecasts
• This evaluation is only first look, early
  results from comparison to aircraft data already
  indicate other shortcomings
• 3d and met-evaluation still forthcoming
• Ensemble forecasts show best performance

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WRF/chem Current Work at NOAA/FSL

• Completing verification runs with Summer of 2004
  data and assisting AL with evaluation
• New advection routine
• Online/offline
• Other new repository additions (sectional
  aerosol, PBL, other chemical mechanisms)
• NMM core
• Add new modules into repository
• Real-time runs will continue
• Our scientists will work with scientists around
  the country and the world to implement further
  improvements

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Current and future work

• Data assimilation, 3dvar versus fdda, 4dvar,
  enembles
• Anthropogenic and biogenic emissions
• Aqueous phase chemistry coupled to
  microphysics/aerosols
• Applications (LES, MIRAGE, Latin America)

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Current and future work

• Much work with aerosols in country and world
• Evaluation of current module
• Working with various improved versions of current
  module
• Implementing new, different approaches
• Radiation feedback to meteorology
• Microphysics feedback
• Much work with chemical mechanisms
• More flexible mechanisms
• More separation of time solver
• Speed ( maybe less accurate, but maybe sufficient
  for forecasting)
• Anti-speed (better and more accurate chemistry)

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Current collaborations outside of NOAA

• NCAR (WRFV2, Repository, further developments on
  photolysis scheme, chemical mechanisms, biogenic
  emissions
• PNNL (various aspects of WRF/Chem)
• IMK-IFU, and University of Chile (RACM mechanism,
  Rosenbrock solver for chemistry, aerosols)
• CDAC in India (offline version of WRF/Chem)
• CPTEC in Brazil (convective transport, wet
  deposition